Chasing Upside in Week 11

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Chasing Upside Week 10 (2022) Fantasy In Frames

Welcome to our team’s weekly article on Fantasy Football Upside in player performance for the upcoming week!

Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Fantasy Football Upside in Week 10!

Quarterback

Jimmy Garopollo, San Francisco 49ers

The Cardinals are giving up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season, the 4th most passing yards to opposing QBs on the season, and the 5th most passing touchdowns. Given the weapons the 49ers have in the likes of CMC, Deebo, Kittle, and Aiyuk, there is no reason Jimmy G shouldn’t finish lower than the QB12 this week.

Running Back

Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders

The Texans have given up THE MOST RUSHING YARDS of any team in the NFL and rank 4th in yards per attempt average. Over the past three games, Robinson has out-touched fellow Commander running back Antonio Gibson 47 to 32, showing that this team is committed to getting Brian involved as the primary bell-cow back. Considered the half-PPR Fantasy Pros ECR RB24, look for Robinson to push for low-end RB1 numbers this week in Houston.

Kenyan Drake, Baltimore Ravens

I nailed my running back upside pick for Week 10 since Jeff Wilson finished as the RB6 with 21.3 half-PPR points. This is not a brag because AJ Dillon in Week 9 was a dud. The point is to always follow your process and not to chase results. If you do not trust your process, you need to re-evaluate and adjust your process. One game is an incredibly minuscule sample size. If your process works, then you will see positive results over time. My process for picking upside running backs is to focus on the potential workload and the defensive matchup. We do not know what the workload will be, but if we anticipate that a player will have more touches, then we can predict there is a greater chance they will score more fantasy points than projected. It is simple logic. The more times a player touches the ball then, the greater chance they have of scoring more points. The defensive matchup is important, too, because the player has a greater chance of getting high-value touches (red zone) if the offense is in scoring positions more often. This seems so basic, and it is, honestly. However, we cannot predict the future, so we need to figure out which players have the greatest chance of exceeding their projections. In Week 11, my upside running back is Kenyan Drake, ranked 28th in FantasyPros ECR.

This season when Kenyan Drake had the majority of the running back snaps (Weeks 6, 8, and 9), he averaged 19.3 half-PPR points per game. There is hesitancy to start Drake this week because Gus Edwards was limited in practice as I write this on Thursday. It is not certain that Edwards will play this week. If he does play then I anticipate Drake to still have the majority of the snaps. The Baltimore Ravens are a run-dominant team. We do not know if Mark Andrews will play yet, and we already know Rashod Bateman is done for the season. The team’s strength is running with their running backs and Lamar Jackson. Fortunately, the Ravens are a great rushing team. If Edwards plays, Drake will still touch the ball enough to provide plenty of upside with a chance to score plenty of points. The Carolina Panthers are an above-average defensive matchup for running backs. We cannot predict game flow, but there is a greater chance that the Ravens are about to dominate the time of possession by controlling the ball by running a lot. Kenyan Drake should be in your flex spot this week and even your RB2 spot if the bye week or injuries are tough this week.

Wide Receiver

Kadarius Toney

The oft-injured former Giant seems to be rejuvenated and healthy since his trade to Kansas City… Amazing what going from Daniel Jones to Patrick Mahomes can do to a receiver’s ability to get on the field! 

Toney only saw 44% of the offensive snaps and still finished as the WR12 in half-PPR scoring. That’s a WR1 finish on a sub-50 % snap share! None of the other 11 WR1’s from week 10 had less than a 77% snap share. 

The case to start Toney this week is only strengthened when you consider the health of Kansas City’s other receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster missed practice on Thursday after suffering a concussion in the win over Jacksonville. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) was limited due to illness, and Mecole Hardman has been placed on IR. With the league seemingly putting tighter restrictions on players returning after a concussion since the Tua Tagovailoa fiasco back in weeks 3 & 4, It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Toney and MVS as the only available preferred starters.

If Toney takes on the JuJu Smith-Schuster role for KC this week, he can hope to pick up a chunk of a rather large vacated target share. JuJu has eight or more targets in six games this season, and his target share is over 18%. This game is a great opportunity for KCs most recent acquisition to establish himself as Patrick Mahomes’ scariest weapon moving forward.

Allen Robinson

Probably the biggest disappointment on your FF team this year has a chance to try and rebuild some bridges with the fantasy community after the unfortunate injury to Cooper Kupp, which has seen last season’s triple-crown winner placed on IR. 

Robinson will become the de-facto WR1 for the Rams for at least the next four games, and whilst it’s not recommended to assume he adopts Cooper Kupp’s target share, a sharp incline is to be expected. Kupp’s 31% target share ranked top-5 in the NFL. Those targets have to be filtered somewhere, and a fair share heading Robinson’s way is a reality we could easily see.

With Matt Stafford likely returning this week, and the Rams needing a win in the worst way, Robinson is going to have to start performing in the way we know he is capable if LA is going to turn this tide.

Tight End

Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders

Each week I delve through the mire that is the tight-end position outside the elite options in an attempt to provide a high-upside alternative. After the plethora of injuries at the position recently, I have found myself screaming, “OH, JUST PLAY ANYONE THAT’S HEALTHY” into the ether.

One player whose stock is on the rise due to injuries on his own team, however, is Foster Moreau. Moreau had his best performance of the year against the Colts in week 10, turning his four targets into three receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown. The fourth-year tight end finished as the TE5 on the week in half-PPR scoring, per FantasyData.

The fantasy production may have been lacking for much of this season, but his usage has certainly been evident. From week two onwards, Moreau has seen at least four targets in each of the six games he has played. This has particularly stepped up over the last four weeks, playing in at least 95% of snaps in each game. With Waller out for at least the next couple of games and Hunter Renfrow also landing on IR, Moreau will remain a prominent part of the Las Vegas passing attack.

The matchup itself this weekend is rather non-descript. The Broncos rank in the middle of the pack against tight ends, allowing an average of just under ten half-PPR points to the position, according to FantasyData. Yet, given the lack of options available to Carr, Moreau presents fantasy managers with a good streaming option again this coming week.

Thanks for reading our Chasing Upside in Week 11 article.

Don’t forget to check out our weekly rankings here!

Now go out there and crush your matchups this week!

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