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Chasing Upside in Week 10

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Welcome to our team’s weekly article on Fantasy Football Upside in player performance for the upcoming week!

Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Fantasy Football Upside in Week 10!

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawerence was my upside QB last week, and he finished just inside the top 12. In week 9, he scored 17.7 pts, and he will once again be my QB for chasing upside in week 10. Much like last week, he is undervalued.  Trevor is 16th in points per game at the position, scoring only 1 pt less per game than the current QB 8 in that category. In addition, he has had five or more points in rushing in three of his last four games. These rushing points have raised his floor considerably. 

The Jaguars have a great matchup this week traveling to Kansas City, where they will face a Chiefs defense that ranks 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.  The Chiefs still rank this low/high in this category despite allowing Titans rookie Malik Willis only 7.2 pts last week. They’ve allowed middle-of-the-road QBs Matt Ryan and Jimmy G to throw multiple TDs against them.  Kansas City has also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in every game this season, aside from last week against a Titans team that looked determined not to throw the ball. Joe Matz and I love stats that probably don’t mean anything, but as any fellow gamblers know, we love trends. Lawrence has been better on the road than at home this year. He’s scored  20 or more points in two of his three road games and is averaging just over 20 points per game on the road, compared to just over 15 at home. 

Running Back

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

Finally! I get to name Khalil “Juice” Herbert my upside pick of the week. Even after an underwhelming week against the Dolphins in week 9, I am unconcerned.  Herbert has shown time and time again that he is the more explosive back in Chicago.  Herbert has 98 attempts on the year to David Montgomery’s 106, and there is not a single statistic you can find that says differently. 

I wanted to compare Khalil Herbert’s statistics to David Montgomery’s, but at this point, it just seems a bit mean. So here is what I am going to do.  I will list any efficiency metric I can find and tell you where Khalil Herbert ranks in the NFL Overall within qualifying running backs that have amassed 80 or more carries this season.

I hope that appropriately communicates just how good Khalil Herbert has been this year.  Quite simply, he is one of the best runners in the NFL, and there is not a lot you could do to persuade someone to think differently.

This week the Bears will host a Detroit Lions team fresh off a defeat of the Green Bay Packers. Even with that slog of a game included, the Lions continue to allow the 6th most half-PPR points per game to the running back position with 23.9. The Bears seem to be figuring out how to use Justin Fields in the run game, which is always good news for running back efficiency. Just ask the 2019 Ravens.  I’d expect Khalil Herbert to produce an explosive play and possibly a touchdown this week, providing plenty of upside in your flex spot.

Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins

First, I want to ramble about the process over results. Last week I recommended AJ Dillon for this article because he had a fantastic matchup, and he was getting work near the goal line (even though it wasn’t a lot). Unfortunately, AJ Dillon was a dud. That was the result. However, I stand by the process. Before Aaron Jones left the game hurt, they both had pretty equal work. Early in the game, AJ Dillon had two goal-line carries, but he didn’t convert either, and Rodgers threw multiple interceptions near the goal line. If he converted one of those carries to a touchdown, we would have felt differently about the results, but that did not impact the process. Always remember, process over results long-term yields fantasy football success.

Now on to Week 10! This week I am chasing the upside of Jeff Wilson Jr, the RB27 according to FantasyPros ECR.  The Dolphins traded for Wilson before Week 9, but he still played well despite a team and city! Of course, it helps that he already played in this offense for this coaching staff with the San Francisco 49ers. The Dolphins have a dynamic offense, and Wilson fits right in. Surprisingly, Wilson had more snaps and touches than Mostert in Week 9, and that trend will continue in Week 10. 

Wilson also ran better than Mostert, with 5.7 yards per carry compared 2.9 yards per carry. Most importantly, Wilson had five red-zone touches compared to Mostert’s two. We shouldn’t have been surprised by Wilson’s Week 9 performance. According to Next Gen Stats, entering Week 9, Wilson had the 7th-most rush yards over expected in the NFL. We saw his rushing efficiency continue last week.

Finally, a matchup is vital for chasing upside. The Cleveland Browns have some superstar defenders, like Myles Garrett. However, the defense has not been great at stopping the run. They rank last in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per rush. The Dolphins offense will be too much for the Browns to handle. Vegas expects the Dolphins to score 26.25 points, so Wilson should have multiple chances to score a touchdown. Jeff Wilson Jr. can be your RB2 this week, and if you have good RB depth, then put him in your flex spot.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman Jr

With the surprising news that former Colts lineman Jeff Saturday will take interim charge of the team, it’s certainly fair to question if you can trust any of the weapons in Indianapolis. I think that’s a fair question to ask when you consider the lack of coaching experience the new HC has, but I expect Saturday to lean heavily on the limited offensive talent he has at his disposal, now obviously, that means Jonathan Taylor running the football, but how about in the passing game? 

Michael Pittman Jr is clearly the number-one receiver for the Colts, and his ability to win contested catches is a safety blanket to a young QB like Sam Ehlinger. Pittman has caught 10 of 17 contested catches this season, second-best in the NFL amongst all WRs. 

For fantasy purposes, Pittman makes up for a lack of high-end QB play with a high opportunity potential. The former USC pass-catcher is tied for first amongst all NFL WRs in snaps during passing plays. His 374 snaps during passing plays mean he’s on the field almost every time Indianapolis wants to throw the ball. This opportunity potential is high, and against a secondary like Las Vegas, we could see that potential explode into a performance.

Khalil Shakir

A speculative start in deep leagues or if bye weeks have you in a tangle, but this week could be the coming out party for fifth-round rookie Khalil Shakir. With it looking more likely by the day that Bills starting QB Josh Allen will miss at least this week, it’ll be up to backup Case Keenum to take the reins of what can be a high-powered offense. 

Shakir is listed as the #2 option in the slot per ourlads.com. But with the current #1 Isaiah McKenzie’s poor recent performances and the connection Shakir and Keenum showed in the pre-season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see McKenzie relegated to a gadget role, allowing the rookie to work more from the slot. 

If he does see more snaps from the slot, Shakir will be battling Vikings’ veteran nickel corner, Chandon Sullivan. The former Packer is having a rough season so far. Of all cornerbacks to have played 80% of 378 snaps (regular three-down starters), Sullivan has allowed the most receptions (36), the highest percentage of targets in his coverage to be completed (81.8), the most YAC (314), second-most yards allowed (471) and the third-highest NFL passer rating when targeted (118.8). Unable to rely on Josh Allen’s magic this week, It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Buffalo deploy a run and short-passing centric offense designed to target the weaknesses in this Minnesota defense.

Tight End

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

The Cole Kmet hype train has been a bumpy ride this year. Given the lack of receiving options in the summer, the hope was that the third-year tight end would progress in 2022 and carve out a key role. However, with Justin Fields taking a step forward, critical pieces of the offense are starting to produce for fantasy managers, Kmet included.

Last week’s performance was the best fantasy outing of his career, scoring 19.5 half-PPR points. Kmet saw a season-high six targets against the Dolphins, turning it into five receptions for 41 yards and two touchdowns. He’s now scored three touchdowns over the last two weeks, a stark difference from the two he scored across his first two SEASONS. While this is still a run-first operation, Kmet’s usage is highly encouraging, particularly in the red zone.

This week’s matchup doesn’t get better for the Bears, as they face their division rival Detroit Lions. Do not let last week’s performance against the Packers fool you; the Lions remain one of the worst defenses in the league. They currently rank 26th in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. On top of this, the team allows the third-most points on average to the tight end position in half-PPR scoring, per FantasyData.

He may have been a disappointment for much of the first half of this season, but all signs point to Kmet outperforming his TE14 ranking at the time of writing on FantasyPros’ week 10 half-PPR ECR.

Thanks for reading our Chasing Upside in Week 10 article.

Don’t forget to check out our weekly rankings here!

Now go out there and crush your matchups this week!

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