Can We Start To Trust David Montgomery?

With Tarik Cohen out for the season, David Montgomery has started to show fantasy managers why there was so much hype around him coming into the league last year. But can we trust his production going forward?

2019 was a mixed year for Montgomery, finishing as the RB25 in half-PPR scoring, according to FantasyData. In total he rushed 242 times, amassing 889 yards and six touchdowns on the ground, with an additional 185 receiving yards and another touchdown. Overall he had an okay year, below what some expected prior to the start of the 2019 season with his upside limited by a lack of touchdowns and work in the passing game.

Coming into this year, expectations were fairly muted, with a general lack of enthusiasm surrounding the Bears offense as a whole, with the starting quarterback role still undecided between Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles.

But after Tarik Cohen’s season-ending injury in week 3, Montgomery’s production has been on the rise. The most promising aspect for Montgomery in recent weeks has been his usage in the passing game. In the last two weeks, with Nick Foles under center, the former Iowa State back has seen 14 targets, compared to nine in the opening three weeks. The seven receptions and a rushing touchdown last week versus a tough Buccaneers defense propelled Montgomery to finish as the RB15.

While it is clearly a small sample size, it is promising to see that his usage and production as a receiver is on the up. Over these last two weeks, Montgomery is the joint-second most-targeted player on the Bears, accounting for a 16.7% target share, only behind Allen Robinson who has seen an impressive 26 targets.

Cohen saw a total of 79 catches on 104 targets last year, and while Montgomery certainly won’t reach those heights, he is on track to far exceed the 35 targets and 25 receptions recorded in his rookie season. Montgomery has already seen 16 receptions from 23 targets so far this year.

And up next for Montgomery and the Bears? A Carolina Panthers team who are giving up an average 31.72 points per week to the running-back position – the most in the NFL. There have been several stellar performances against Carolina this year, including just last week when Todd Gurley rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown.

Top 5 Running Back Fantasy Finishes vs Carolina Panthers (Half-PPR)

One potential issue for Montgomery this year, however, is just how pass-heavy the Chicago Bears have been so far. The Bears have passed on 61.2% of plays so far this year, the third-highest percentage in the league – only behind the Jaguars (61.3%) and Cowboys (63.3%). Although Montgomery is seeing the vast majority of carries (Cordarrelle Patterson has seen just six carries in the last two weeks combined), he has seen an average of just 12.6 carries a game, and just ten carries in each of the last two games.

All in all, Montgomery is a solid option for fantasy managers, especially given the amount of injuries, bye-weeks, and general COVID chaos elsewhere.  Although he still seems to lack the upside of the top-tier running backs, he is becoming a much more reliable fantasy asset this year and can be started with confidence this week against a porous Panthers run defense.