4-EYED TEAM PREVIEW: BUFFALO BILLS (2021)
Today we are continuing our 4-EYED TEAM PREVIEW SERIES and we are covering the Buffalo Bills of the AFC East! This morning we’re talking offense and later today we’ll be releasing our IDP outlook, so stay tuned!
The pass-happy Bills were one of the surprises of the season in 2020. Josh Allen took a gigantic leap in year 3, catapulting himself into the Patrick Mahomes & Aaron Rodgers stratosphere as an elite, MVP-caliber passer. The addition of Stefon Diggs has been credited for Allen’s improved performances and whilst his inaugural season in western New York was a smashing success that saw him lead the NFL in receiving yards and receptions, he wasn’t the only valuable pass-catcher in Buffalo. But that was 2020, and whilst this Bills team looks ready to make another run in 2021 on the back of their free-scoring offense, it’s my job to point you in the direction of the fantasy-relevant options in Buffalo for this year.
So, who are the players from the Bills offense that can help you win a fantasy championship in 2021?
Find out below in our 2021 Bills Offensive 4-EYED Team Preview!
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen
The Bills have no questions surrounding their signal-caller. As touched on above, Josh Allen posted an MVP-worthy season in 2020, and was the fantasy MVP as the leading points scorer by FanDuel scoring metrics, and was the only player to pass the 400 fantasy points mark. He’s arguably the re-draft QB1 and is locked in as a top-5 startup pick in Superflex & 2QB leagues. Allen threw for over 4,500 yards and 37 TD’s as well as a completion percentage of over 69. The Bills posted a 13-3 record in 2020 on the back of Josh Allen’s ability as a passer and as a runner that put him in the top tier of fantasy QBs. With an offense that can be can be considered slightly upgraded compared to its 2020 iteration, expect Allen to finish as a top-3 player at the position once again. Allen’s backup in 2021 will be former number 2 overall pick, Mitch Trubisky, whose fantasy value I touched on in this article.
RUNNING BACKS
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary
The underwhelming aspect of the Buffalo Bills offense certainly lays with the RB room. The unit struggled in 2020 with both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss failing to take the pressure off of Josh Allen by toting the rock successfully. The off-season addition of Matt Breida, whilst offering a change of pace from the incumbents, doesn’t particularly offer much encouragement for improvement. No one in the NFL faced a smaller percentage of stacked boxes than Devin Singletary, but even with those favorable looks, he was unable to impress with only 686 yards and 2 TDs on the year. Zack Moss fared a little better in the TD scoring department with 4 but was equally unnoticeable during his rookie campaign. The Buffalo Bills offensive line isn’t particularly built for the run game, ranking in the middle of the pack according to PFF. That being said, they also ranked as a top-5 pass-blocking line. Add this to the Bills offensive philosophy and Josh Allen’s propensity to keep the ball once inside the 5 (premium carries for RB’s) this is probably a position group to avoid in 2021.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley
This is where the real value on the Bills offense can be found. Obviously, Stefon Diggs is a fantasy stud. Leading the NFL in receiving yards and receptions as he quickly built a great rapport with Josh Allen. Diggs’ 8 TDs in 2020 ties his second-highest output during his NFL career and we can likely expect something similar in 2021 as he is clearly the number 1 option and the QBs favorite target in Buffalo. Diggs’s top-3 WR finish in 2020 is a range we can expect again this coming season. Cole Beasley was a pleasant surprise contributor for any fantasy managers who rostered him in 2020. The slot specialist posted a high WR3 finish (26th overall WR by FanDuel scoring) posting over 11 fantasy points per game. His recent Twitter exploits and stance on COVID-19 vaccinations mean we’re a little uncertain on what his role in the offense will look like in 2021. If he is on the field though, we know that Beasley makes a habit of connecting with Allen’s passes.
Emmanuel Sanders and Gabriel Davis
New WR acquisition, Emmanuel Sanders is a shrewd, veteran signing. He’s impressed the last couple of seasons in one and done stints with the Niners & Saints, both teams who were considered “in the window” at the time. Sanders has finished as a WR3 & WR4 by FanDuel scoring during these 1-year stints, posting over 9 fantasy points per game. This makes his value a worthwhile option on a contending roster if he, as expected, carves out a target share in Buffalo. Gabriel Davis had an impressive rookie campaign for the Bills and there’s a lot of hype around him and what he can do in his sophomore season. Fellow Fantasy In Frames writer, Brian Ford wrote a great piece about the former UCF pass-catcher, which you can find here.
Summary
In conclusion, I think it’s safe to say that the Bills have a couple of fantasy studs in Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs. These are two top-tier, expensive assets in both redraft and dynasty formats.
Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders are two veteran pass-catchers who are inexpensive options for fantasy teams ready to bring home a championship, whilst Gabriel Davis is a prospect who’s seemingly a dynasty sweetheart at the moment. Davis’ value is towards its ceiling at the moment though so if you’re not a Davis manager in your league it may be worth biding your time and seeing if Emmanuel Sanders starts to eat into his targets before striking with an offer closer to his current ability rather than his potential.
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