An Emerging Tight End Star?
As last Sunday was ‘National Tight End Day’, what better time to discuss the Lions’ young star TJ Hockenson, who has quietly been having a solid season.
Every season there are great hopes amongst the fantasy football community that a plethora of fantasy-relevant tight-ends will emerge, and every year we are disappointed as it turns out, yet again, to be a wasteland. There are, however, plenty of young, athletic tight-ends who could go on to be stars in the coming years. Lions tight end TJ Hocksenson is one such player and has been starting to show why Detroit took him in the first round in the 2019 NFL Draft.
TJ Hockenson currently stands as the TE6 in half-PPR scoring so far this year, according to FantasyData, and has shown fairly consistent performances this season, recording a total of 22 receptions, 256 yards, and 4 touchdowns in his 6 games so far. His production is markedly improved on his 2019 statistics, playing in 12 games last year, finishing as the TE31. He is now already only a handful of points away from surpassing his 2019 fantasy total.
Hockenson started his rookie season on fire, carving up the Arizona Cardinals for 131 yards and a touchdown on 6 receptions in week 1. Large amounts of FAAB was then squandered in the hope of a breakout first season in the NFL, yet he never quite lived to the heights of his first outing. Expectations coming into this year were fairly muted. Hockenson was one a slew of late-round tight-ends who fantasy managers hoped could provide more regular production.
A key reason behind the uptick this year has been a consistent share of targets. The former John Mackey Award winner has seen at least 4 targets in each game so far this season, a feat he achieved in only 7 of the 12 games he played last year. This year he has seen a total of 31 targets, equating to a 15.9% team target share and is therefore the most targeted player on the Lions so far, albeit star receiver Kenny Golladay has missed a couple of games through injury. And he is turning this opportunity into production. Hockenson has recorded 50 receiving yards in 4 of his 6 games so far this year, compared to just 2 games with over 50 yards in 2019.
Touchdowns have also been key to his improved fantasy production. After week 1 last year, Hockenson only scored one more touchdown, yet has reeled in four touchdowns already this season. At 6’5”, Hockenson is an obvious end zone target for Matthew Stafford and has been utilised much more often in scoring situations this year, scoring in his last three outings. Hockenson is the 4th most targeted tight end in the red zone in the league this year with 9, only behind Graham (12), Kelce (11) and Waller (10). This compares to just 7 red zone targets he saw in the entirety of 2019.
While Hockenson has been productive so far this year, we should be tempering expectations this week. The Lions host the Indianapolis Colts, who allow just 2.2 points per game to tight ends, the fewest in the league this season. He does, however, have more favorable matchups against Washington and Houston on the horizon.
Hockenson is slowly starting to show why the Lions put so much faith in him, after his stellar college career at Iowa. While he is still some way off the likes of Kelce and Kittle, he has made great strides in 2020 and has rewarded fantasy managers who took a gamble on him in the later rounds with fairly consistent performances.