AFC West Boring Players
Welcome back to Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships. Fortune favors the boring!
You’ll think “Why do I do this to myself?” But you’ll be laughing all your way to the playoffs. RBs who are rock solid. Wide receivers who are a warm safety blanket. Tight ends who try hard but aren’t try-hards. QBs who make you question why you ever thought of drafting one early. All steak, no sizzle.
May I present your AFC West’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!
Denver Broncos – Drew Lock (QB25, ADP177)
The Denver Broncos are buzzing! Courtland Sutton is ready to break out. Melvin Gordon joins the backfield. Jerry Jeudy is ready to earn his 1st round draft status. And the one giving them the ball? Poor old Drew Lock sits as the 25th QB off the board in the 14th round. Yes, he’s not even being drafted as a starter in 2-QB leagues!
The sample size for Lock is small. He started weeks 13 to 17 for the Broncos and averaged a meager 14.2 fantasy points per game. Lock finished as QB31, tied with Mitch Trubisky and just above Marcus Mariota and David Blough. Gross. But, of that bunch, only Lock was a rookie. Despite having a protection rate of only 81%, according to Fantasydata.com, his completion percentage while under pressure was near the top of the league at 51.2%. For comparison, that was above Brees (45.5%), Watson (44.8%) and Mahomes (44.7%).
Lock is nowhere near the discussion of those three stud QBs. That said, there’s plenty of upside for Lock in his sophomore season. As my colleague Todd Barnes wrote in his latest Slot Report, the Broncos had under 1,000 slot yards last year. With Jeudy most likely replacing DaeSean Hamilton as the slot receiver, Lock will have a better chance to sling the ball around the field.
But do NOT draft Lock. He faces some tough defenses in his first five weeks: Titans, Steelers, Bucs, Jets and Pats. Yikes! If he puts up high-end QB2 numbers during those games, keep your eye on Lock as a sneaky bye week fill-in or, potentially, a second-half starter. Or perhaps we should Lock me up and throw away the key. I’m hilarious.
Las Vegas Raiders – Tyrell Williams (WR56, ADP146)
Yet another Williams whose luster is dimmed by a 1st round draft pick. Tyrell Williams is on nobody’s short list (or long list) of “must have” players. Unlike Damien, Tyrell and his rookie competition, Henry Ruggs III, are hovering around the same ADP in the mid- to late-12th round.
So why take 6th-year Williams over the Ruggs? Over his career, Williams has averaged about 13 air yards per target. Last year, he averaged 10.2 yards per target (WR6) and 15.5 yards per reception (WR12). Williams is a middle-deep ball threat, which means a greater opportunity for fantasy points.
He also consistently ranks among the top wideouts in terms of contested catch rate. Among wide receivers seeing 10+ contested targets per year, Williams had the 3rd highest catch rate in 2019 (behind John Brown and Terry McLaurin) and the 2nd highest in 2018 (behind only Michael Thomas). He sees deep targets and can come down with the ball when being mobbed by defenders. Again, a recipe for fantasy goodness.
Yes, Ruggs is a speedster and the Raiders used their first draft on him. As I’ve mentioned before, rookie wideouts rarely generate WR1 numbers. Why not go for the wideout who already has two years of experience with Derek Carr and who can reel in the deep ball? In the 12th round, try Ty.
Los Angeles Chargers – Keenan Allen (WR18, ADP44)
Fear the beard! Keenan Allen enters his 8th season with a new quarter back and something to prove. Yet you, my friends, are drafting this boring stud as the 18th wide receiver behind the sexy names of Courtland Sutton, A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley.
Although not a sexy name, Keenan has been far from boring. Since tearing his ACL and missing the 2016 season, Allen has never seen fewer than 136 targets per season. In fact, only 5 receivers have done the same over that time frame: Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry and Keenan Allen.
In terms of fantasy points per game, Allen has finished as the WR4, WR18 and WR11 each year since 2017. Also, he is only one of three wide receivers, with Thomas and Julio, to have 1190+ receiving yards in each of the past three seasons.
Allen is the definition of consistent and has shown he can finish as a WR1. At a 4th round price, gimme all the Allen.
I hope all you#4EYEDfans are sufficiently bored! See you next time for our last installment, covering NFC West’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!