AFC South Boring Players
Welcome back to Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships. You snooze, you win!
We continue to look at each team for one player who you’ll see in your fantasy football draft and think “No, no, no, no, no, ugh fine” and you’ll be laughing all your way to the playoffs. RBs who are rock solid. Wide receivers who are a warm safety blanket. Tight ends who try hard but aren’t try-hards. QBs who make you question why you ever thought of drafting one early. In with the old, out with the new.
May I present your AFC South’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!
Houston Texans – Brandin “Circa 2015” Cooks
Last year, Brandin Cooks battled multiple concussions. Despite starting 11 games, he snagged only 42 receptions for 583 years and 2 TDs for a grand total of 6.9 fantasy points per game. I know, you’re scorned and fearful of the injury/concussion risk. But finding a player who has otherwise averaged nearly 12.5 fantasy points per game over his career in the 7th round is rare.
According to Fantasydata.com, Cooks saw over a 95% snap share. In those two years according to Airyards.com, Cooks saw a whopping average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.4 and 12.7 yards, respectively. Even in his injury-plagued 2019 campaign, he saw an aDOT of 14.8 yards. When Cooks was healthy, Sean McVay knew to get him on the field and to throw him the ball deep. Bill O’Brien undoubtedly will do the same thing with no other clear WR1 on the roster.
And, contrary to the narrative (guilty), Cooks doesn’t just win with speed. Last year he showed us that he can go up and battle defenders for the ball. In 2019, Cooks caught 54.5% of contested balls thrown his way. That was good enough for 12th among WRs.
Picking Cooks comes down a bit to draft strategy. If you’ve sought upside in the 5th and 6th round for your flex spots/bench, perhaps Cooks is too risky. But what is more likely to happen? The 5th year-DeVante Parker will repeat his one great season, or the 7th-year Brandin Cooks will bounce back from his one truly disappointing season? I say throw your pick on the griddle and get Cook-ing!
Indianapolis Colts – Jack “He’s Back?” Doyle
Jack Doyle is so stoked you’re reading about him. His beard is stoked. Why should you be just as stoked as Jolly Ole Jack? Because you can get Jovial Jack as the TE18 (read: FREE) towards the very end of your draft.
It seems like forever since we were talking about Jack Doyle as a reliable TE. That’s because it has been. In his first two years as the starting TE with Andrew Luck allllll the way back in 2016 and 2017, Mr. Doyle averaged 7.2 and 8.6 fantasy points per game. Then came Jack’s injury-plagued 2018 season, where he missed ten games. That was also the year that fellow Colts tight end Eric Ebron scored an incomparably high number of touchdowns (13). Last year brought the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck and lack-luster quarterback play of Jacoby Brissett. With that, Doyle’s numbers dropped to under 500 yards receiving and 5.6 fantasy points per game.
Now, Eric Ebron is in Pittsburgh and TE-friendly Philip Rivers has arrived in the Crossroads of America. Injuries aside, did you enjoy drafting Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry when Philip Rivers was throwing them the pigskin in San Diego/Los Angeles? Right? Doyle could have that upside in a run-heavy offense where he will often be on the field. Last year, Doyle was on the field for 75% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Chris “He’s Where Now?” Thompson
The latest addition to the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield, Chris Thompson, is admittedly not a league winner. Not every “snooze” will win your league. But hopefully, they won’t lose you your league. Most importantly, you also won’t spend a lot of draft capital to get a player that ultimately underachieves.
May I present, Chris Thompson, for whom I cannot even generate a graph showing his ADP. Not even if I show you the current 14-team league ADP. Chris Thompson is not only free, but someone might pay you to draft him.
Why would I bother writing about someone who legitimately is not being drafted anywhere? Floor and game script. Chris Thompson has seen 50 targets in every season over the past five years (and 48 targets the year before that). During that time, he only played in 12 or more games once. We’ve seen the ceiling for Chris Thompson. In 2017, he had four games with over 90 total yards (rushing and receiving), including a 188-yard performance on 15 total touches, before his season-ending knee injury. When Chris Thompson is on the field, everyone knows it’s a passing play. In each of the past two seasons, he has seen the 3rd fewest defenders in the box. For any RB, touches are valuable. Passing-down touches are even more so.
Don’t draft Chris Thompson. Please don’t misunderstand me. Remember these stats for later in the off-season or mid-season. If Leonard Fournette holds out or gets injured, fantasy managers will be racing to add Ryquell Armstead. If you don’t have the waiver wire priority or want to reserve your free agent acquisition budget, think about Chris Thompson. That is, of course, assuming Mr. Thompson is not rehabbing alongside Mr. Fournette.
Tennessee Titans – Ryan “It’ll Be a Cold Day in” Tannehill
“HEY!” “HOW AM I SERIOUSLY NOT BEING DRAFTED IN THE VAST MAJORITY OF LEAGUES?” I can’t read lips, but I’m pretty sure that’s what Ryan Tannehill is saying in this picture. Currently, the darling of the last half of the 2019 season is being drafted as the QB18 in the 13th round.
But what if I told you that, in 2019, Tannethrill’s aDOT was top 5? And his completion percentage while under pressure was top 6 among QBs? And his play-action completion percentage was #1 in the league at an insane 75.9%? The result was a #1 passer rating in 2019 (118.2) when taking out un-pressured throwaways and dropped balls. Plus, he has averaged 41.5 rushing attempts and nearly 200 rushing yards per season over his career. I’m with you, Ryan. Why are we not drafting you in at least the majority of leagues?
That said, Tannehill is headed for regression. It was his first season with Tennessee, and defenses are likely to adjust. Former first-round selection Jack Conklin will no longer be protecting him on the Titans’ offensive line. But Tannehill isn’t some second-year QB ready for a sophomore slump. He enters his 8th season with a new four-year $118 million deal. He still has a stub RB in the backfield with Derrick Henry. The Titans and head coach Mike Vrabel will likely continue to run, run, and run some more with Henry, who enters potentially his final year in Nashville. That means more play-action goodness for “Tannethrill” in 2020!
I hope all you#4EYEDfans are sufficiently bored! See you next time for the NFC South’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!