Finding Reality In Fantasy Football

Trying to figure out the reality of fantasy football performances week to week is a struggle all fantasy managers face day in and day out. We go back over and over again trying to make sense of what we saw the previous week and try to find some correlation between what we saw and future performances. THEN, of course, we have those weeks where a certain player or group of players have big games or lack thereof and we start overanalyzing the significance of that performance. For example, questions like these more than likely came up for you after Week 4:

• Is his 200+ yard rushing performance the type of production we can expect out of Leonard Fournette going forward this season given the volume he’s given?
• Has Jameis Winston figured “it” out in Tampa in terms of quarterback play?
• Has the Cowboys offense been exposed to opposing defenses and now runs the risk of being shut down on the regular how the Saints shut them down on Sunday night?

There are lots of examples I can get into in terms of deducing the reality out of fantasy football. That being said when I was in college one of my good friends/mentors introduced me to the concept that everything comes down to a person’s time, space, and place. Only when all three of those things are aligned are you most likely to find success. I’m sure you’ve heard of this concept or one similar to it over the course of your lives. If not, …. well now you have.

The same notion applies to NFL players in fantasy football. If a player is getting into a rthyum at the right time of the season, is in the right position in their career to perform optimally, and is in an environment that naturally brings out their best performance THAT player will find success for you and your fantasy football team.

There is a special term we use when trying to deduce the right time, space, and place for a player for having future success: An Educated Guess.

You have to look at the WHOLE picture in terms of eye-test, reasons for good or bad performances, and upcoming defensive matchups in order to determine if a player on your roster is in the right position to have fantasy success. Stats matter. This is primarily a numbers game. You just can’t go around going using your gut feeling when it comes to player assessment as your only measurable tool. That’s what Aaron and I are here for at Fantasy In Frames. We give you educated guesses based on a LOT of information in order to put you in the best positions to succeed.

Here is a list of players that made my 4-EYED OBSERVATIONS for Week 4 that I believe found themselves in the right and/or wrong time, space, and place this past week and what it means for them going forward this season.

**DISCLAIMER**

As always when discussing fantasy point production we’re referring to 0.5 PPR scoring.  

Quarterback: Gardner Minshew II turned in a serviceable performance on Sunday, but does he make for a favorable streaming option going forward?

Uncle Rico aka Gardner Minshew II is QB 15 on the season in fantasy points per game with 17.1, 5th in completion percentage among all starting quarterbacks with 69.4%, and is tied at QB 10 in touchdowns with 7. While he was making plays at the right time of the game and was in an environment that saw the Jags offense building momentum against a tiring Broncos defense, he was in the wrong place in terms of seeing quality pass rushers in his face as well as having to play chess with one of the best cornerbacks in the game. It’s no wonder he couldn’t put together a great passing performance on Sunday.

Over the next following weeks, he’ll face defenses with the following pass rush ranking according to PFF.

Week 5 Panthers: 9th best

Week 6 Saints: 6th best

Week 7 Bengals: 10th best

Week 8 Jets: 32nd (league-worst)

Week 9 Texans: 2nd best

Not exactly ideal. While having a bulldozing running back like Leonard Fournette can keep defenses honest aka providing more one-on-one matchups in the secondary, the fact of the matter is while Minshew’s receiving options might have success in the receiving game doesn’t necessarily translate into him being a viable streaming option going forward. That being said his schedule does lighten up after the Jags Week 10 bye. If Gardner can handle this upcoming baptism underfire then I’ll re-evaluate his streaming potential. Until then I advise you to keep him out of your starting lineups for the time being.

Running Back: Devonta Freeman is who I expected him to be, so far, this season and that’s not a good thing.

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks 24th in run blocking, the running game as a whole rank 30th in the NFL, and Devonta Freeman was RB 33 on the day for yards ran, according to ProFootballFocus and FantasyData.com. In fact, for the season Freeman is RB32 in yards ran with 157, RB27 in yards after contact, RB34 in explosive runs of more than 10 yards with just 3, and is RB35 in fantasy points per game with 8.9.

Over the course of the season, he’ll face the following run defenses:

Week 5 Texans: 22nd

Week 6 Cardinals: 27th

Week 7 Rams: 10th

Week 8 Seattle: 5th

Week 10 Saints: 2nd

Week 11 Panthers: 20th

Week 12 Buccaneers: 1st

Week 13 Saints: 2nd

Five out of his next eight games are against top 10 run defenses, and even with the advantageous matchups coming up if you think Freeman, with his subpar o-line and lack of explosiveness, will help get you to the playoffs let alone win you a 4EYEDtitle this season, given his body of work thus far you are MISTAKEN. Sell high on Freeman after week 6.

Wide Receiver: Corey Davis played well on Sunday but what is his immediate fantasy outlook look like?

Corey Davis was WR9 on the week in terms of fantasy points per game. The previous weeks this season:

Week 1: WR-UNRANKED

Week 2: WR68

Week 3: WR 59

Going forward Davis faces the following challenges in terms of opposing pass defenses:

Week 5 Bills: 2nd best

Week 6 Broncos: 15th best

Week 7: Chargers: 25th best

Week 8: Buccaneers: 23rd

Week 9: Panthers: 5th best

Weel 10: Chiefs: 13th best

4 out of those 6 matchups are potentially exploitable for this Titans passing offense, but the real question is how well the Titans o-line ranks in pass blocking. According to ProFootballFocus, they rank 7th best in the NFL in that category, so theoretically Mariota or whoever is at quarterback at that point in Tenessee should be protected well enough to exploit these defensive mismatches at the WR/CB matchup.

I’m certainly not saying Davis should be a starter for you every week, but as a flex play in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 10….perhaps….perhaps.

Tight End: Unlike his running back teammate, Austin Hooper is a Falcon who will end up soaring for you in 2019

Austin Hooper has been one of the most consistent receiving options for the Falcons all season long. He ranks 10th overall among all receiving tight ends according to PFF, 3rd in yards after catch, 4th in targets (second on the Falcons in targets only behind Julio Jones), and faces the following defenses in terms of pass coverage over the next few weeks:

Week 5 Texans: 26th best

Week 6 Cardinals: 17th best

Week 7 Rams: 8th best

Week 8 Seahawks: 18th best

I’d say he’s in the right time, space, and place on this team to produce some serious fantasy football damage for you over the next few weeks.

That wraps up my 4-EYED OBSERVATIONS from WEEK 4! Apologies for no IDP content this week other than Jaylon Smith and Devin Bush….THANK YOU FOR BEING AWESOME.

I’ll make it up to you with double the IDP content next week!

Be sure to read our 4-EYED PREVIEW for WEEK 5 on Wednesday, our 4-EYED ASSESSMENT on Thursday, and our HEROES & VILLAINS series on Friday!

ALSO, our Week 5 preview podcast will be dropping this Friday morning as well!

Make sure to follow us Twitter, Facebook, & Instagram as well as reach out to us to get your personalized fantasy football questions answered!

Thanks for visiting Fantasy In Frames!

*Stats provided by FantasyData.com and ProFootballFocus.com