Week 1 Heroes and Villains
Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books and as we look back at what happened, not only do coaches get their first look at what they may have for the rest of the regular season, fantasy football owners get are provided with their first real world evaluation of the team that they drafted and what areas may become areas of need and identifying some possible surprises that they didn’t see coming. As weeks change, strategies could change both for the good and for the bad. And with that I give you your Week 1 Heroes and Villains.
Heroes:
For a running back, that Lamar Jackson showed that he is a pretty good Quarterback
Lamar Jackson did not show much as a passer last season; in his rookie year, Jackson threw for only 1,200 yards and six touchdowns in his seven start. Flash forward to Game 1 of the 2019 season and Jackson has one of the greatest performances in Baltimore Ravens history. Now it is incumbent upon me to mention that the game was against the putrid Miami Dolphins, but no matter how bad a team is, when your stat line reads 17 for 20 for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns, you are clearly announcing your presence with authority. Jackson’s fantasy ADP was 88 and with the Cardinals coming up next week and Jackson could be in line for a QB1 position in most fantasy formats.
Sammy Watkins makes me eat my words
Anyone who listens to the Fantasy In Frames podcast (and I can’t imagine why you wouldn’t) knows that I have a particular aversion to Sammy Watkins. After his first two seasons in Buffalo where he combined to catch 125 balls for 2,029 yards and 15 touchdowns, he was clearly seen as an emerging star at wide receiver. Since then, he has been fantasy poison, living on the reputation he garnered in his first two seasons, but not producing anywhere close to those numbers. In his following three seasons, he would combine for 107 receptions for 1,542 yards and 13 touchdowns. So, it was fair to be the ultimate skeptic coming into this season, his second in Kansas City. However, after an opening game where he would make 9 receptions for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns, scoring a head turning 42 fantasy points (Fantasy In Frames ½ PPR scoring format) Watkins, may have found the perfect spot for him to finally become that must start fantasy football option that people have been waiting three years for him to become. And now with the injury to Tyreek Hill that will keep him out an extended period of time, Watkins looks to step in as the #1 wide receiver in the Kansas City Chiefs high octane offense.
Who needs Luck when you got the Mack?
Now, I have never claimed to be Bill Belichick level football genius, but looking at Marlon Mack’s stats from last year you can come to a very quick and easy conclusion; when you give Mack the ball more than 15 times in a game, good things happen. In six games that Mack played where he had 15 or more carries, he averaged 110 yards per game and had 7 total TDs. And according to Fantasydata.com he averaged 20.9 fppg in a ½ PPG scoring format. In games that he carried the ball under 15 times, he only averaged 41 yards per game and 7.4 fppg. So, heading into this season armed with those stats and the best offensive line in the NFL, what is Head Coach Frank Reich’s plan for Mack? He gave him the ball 25 times on Sunday vs. the Chargers and what happened…174 yards and touchdown 25.4 fantasy points. It appears to me, when it comes to Marlon Mack’s output, the old expression applies, Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern. GIVE HIM THE DAMN BALL!!
Hocken-up a Big Tight End
Going into the 2019 fantasy football season, tight end is by far the thinnest position in depth that there is. As teams continue to set offensive records, it seems that the tight end is the one spot on the offense that has not felt this offensive juggernaut. Enter T.J. Hockenson of the Detroit Lions, the 8th pick in the 2019 Draft out of Iowa, introduced himself to the NFL and fantasy football owners by recording 6 catches (9 targets) for 131 yards and one touchdown in his first game against the Arizona Cardinals. Capturing 22 fantasy point this week (1/2 PPR) Hockenson looks to be a very popular pickup when waiver wires open. As of Tuesday afternoon, Hockenson is only rostered on 30% of the teams in the ESPN Fantasy Football site and was only started this week in 6.5% of those. Look for those numbers to shoot up, and if by the time this article is published he is still out there, it might be a good idea to pick him up and stash him on your bench until you are able to determine whether this first start was the start of a brilliant rookie season or a flash in the pan that NFL defenses will make adjustments to. Until that time, he was a hero to all tight ends (and tight end owners) in Week 1.
Melvin Who??
You are Austin Ekeler and you know that with starting running back Melvin Gordon holding out, you need to make a positive impression on the coaching staff in order to get playing time and not lose your job to second year RB Justin Jackson. In comes the Indianapolis Colts who finished 8th in the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed in 2018 to open the 2019 campaign. And it is safe to say that Ekeler earned the start next week as he endeared himself to ever fantasy football player in ½ and full PPR leagues by not only rushing for 58 yards, but he also hauled in 6 passes for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns. His 37.9 fantasy points tied him with Christian McCaffery for the most points by a running back this week. Right now, Ekeler is a guy you want on your roster, but may not trust him to start yet, but if he can continue to be that dual threat back that he has shown so far in his NFL career, he is definitely someone that you should consider as a must start every week.
Honorable Heroes
Mark Ingram (RB) – Baltimore Ravens – 14 carries 107 yards, 2 TDs, 22.7 Fantasy Points
Mark Andrews (TE) – Baltimore Ravens – 8 receptions 108 yards, 2 TDs, 16.8 Fantasy Points
Delaney Walker (TE) – Tennessee Titans – 5 receptions 55 yards, 2 TDs, 17.5 Fantasy Points
John Brown (WR) – Buffalo Bills – 7 receptions 123 yards, 1 TD, 21.8 Fantasy Points
DeSean Jackson (WR) – Philadelphia Eagles – 8 receptions 154 yards, 2 TDs, 31.4 Fantasy Points
Jamison Crowder (WR) – New York Jets – 14 receptions 99 yards, 17.3 Fantasy Points
Dak Prescott (QB) – Dallas Cowboys – 25/32 405 yards, 4 TDs, 33.4 Fantasy Points
Villains:
Baker learns the difference between perception and reality
Oh, what Mr. Mayfield must have thought when he heard the news that the Cleveland Browns were trading for Odell Beckham Jr. For a second year QB who was drafted #1 overall, to be provided with the array of weapons that he was given must have made it feel like Christmas in March. Unfortunately, there is one part of the game that the Browns might have neglected, and it may cost Mayfield and his fantasy football owners this season, and that is an offensive line that will give him time to work his magic. This played out in Week 1 as the Browns were manhandled by the Tennessee Titans 43-13. While Mayfield did throw for 285 yards, he would complete only 25 passes for 1 touchdown, and was intercepted 3 times; he was also sacked 5 times. For a guy who whose ADP put him at QB4, games where he puts up a miniscule 9.4 points will not get the job done.
Because I’m Free…Freeman Fallin’
On Sunday, Devonta Freeman played his first game since Week 5 of the 2018 season; injuries to his foot, knee and groin cost him 14 games last season. Coming into this season, Freeman was looking to reestablish himself as one of the best dual threat running backs in the NFL. However, if Week 1 is a measure of what is to come, it may not be long before Freeman finds himself on the bench watching Ito Smith (who wasn’t much better) get his carries. In the Falcons Week 1 loss to the Vikings, Freeman only carried the ball 8 times for 19 yards, with one fumble. For a guy whose ADP was 30, any more weeks of 4. 1 fantasy points will turn him from being a fantasy villain, to a fantasy nothing.
Jonesin’ for some yards
One of the trendy picks at running back coming into the season was Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers. With an ADP that went from 87 in 2018 to 25 in 2019, it looked as though Jones will be one of the breakout starts this year. And why not, in his eight starts last season after taking over for Jamaal Williams, Jones averaged 5.4 yards per carry with six rushing touchdowns and one receiving, and 14.2 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately for Jones and the Packers in Week 1, they literally ran in a Chicago Bears defense that is coming off a season where they were the best team in the NFL against the run, only allowing an average of 80 yards per game. However, this is a new year and with the lofty expectations that Jones came into this season with, 39 yards on 13 carries just will not cut it and going into Week 2 against the Vikings, Jones better start show that Week 1 was simply an anomaly caused by going up against the best in the game.
Everyone on the Pittsburgh Steelers Offense
It’s an interesting phenomenon in the fantasy football world, in that when you are on the losing side of a blowout, that’s when the yards start to pile up, particularly for the QB, WR and TE. In the case of the Pittsburgh Steelers, their opening night blowout loss to the New England Patriots only yielded an all-around embarrassing performance by pretty much everyone on their offense. From a fantasy football perspective, when the highest scoring player on your team comes from an IDP position (Devin Bush-LB) you should know that you are going to have a long night. In this game, the three headed combination of Ben Roethlisberger, James Connor, and JuJu Smith-Schuster combined for a total of 29 total points. Mama did say there will be days like this, so we might give them a pass this week and hope they can find some offensive cohesiveness against a pretty good Seattle defense. You are going to get a lot of nervous fantasy football players who will start to regret expending high draft picks on guys like Connor and Smith-Schuster.
Dishonorable Villains:
Aaron Rodgers (QB) – Green Bay Packers – 18/30 203 yards, 1 TD, 12.9 Fantasy Points
Cam Newton (QB) – Carolina Panthers – 25/38 239 yards, 1 INT, 6.9 Fantasy Points
Derrius Guice (RB) – Washington Redskins – 10 carries 18 yards, 5.3 Fantasy Points
Joe Mixon (RB) – Cincinnati Bengals – 6 carries 10 yards, 2.7 Fantasy Points