Fantasy Football Is Back
Welcome to the first 4-EYED OBSERVATIONS from the first weekend of the NFL season!
Fantasy football managers all over the world have been waiting for this day since December 23rd, 2018 and with a new season comes new expectations. I’m not just talking about the expectations we have for the NFL players that we’ve drafted recently. I’m talking about the expectations we have for ourselves.
Every season I hear many stories of victory from readers and followers, but with every story of championship-winning success, I hear stories of people faltering down the stretch of the previous season, costing themselves a title, costing themselves fun. And yes, those can be considered two different things. It is one thing to lose a game playing all the best matchups with your team to only come up short of victory. That stuff happens and is nothing to hang your head down over because at the end of the day you can be proud your team gave it it’s all. It’s a completely different thing to overthink your way out of a championship or to not listen to evidence, logic, and reasoning, like the kind we provide here, and completely fall on your face before the kickoff of your fantasy players scheduled game has even occurred.
That’s why this season each article, each week starting with the 4-EYED OBSERVATIONS, 4-EYED PREVIEWS, and ending with our 4-EYED ASSESSMENT we will aim to not only give you analysis of player performances and how they can be predictive of future fantasy football success, but we’ll, also, aim to provide you with the confidence needed to make lineup decisions without constantly having to switch back and forth between players on your roster. Don’t overthink things! We’ll do that part for you. Just read, takes notes, and enjoy the path to victory!
That being said there is a human element involved in real football and unless you’re actually in the coaching sessions of your favorite NFL player’s team, the only information and presentation of advice that we can give you is based on simplifying statistical information from various sources and applying our logic and reasoning to that information to bring you sound, informed advice. Does ANYONE get it right, 100% of the time? No. That being said it doesn’t mean we can’t strive for that and THAT is what, we here at Fantasy In Frames, aim to do for you each and every week. We put in countless hours preparing quality content for you in article form, podcasts episodes, our presence on social media, and we do it all for you because 1) we love playing and winning at fantasy football and 2) we want you to feel the same way!
Specifically speaking of the 4-EYED OBSERVATIONS, my goal is to publish these articles each Tuesday morning covering players that played anywhere between Thursday Night Football through Monday Night Football. I’ll be looking at what was done, by who, against who, who those players will be facing next, and whether or not you can trust them going forward.
To give you my analysis I’ll be referencing data from the following sources:
- FantasyData.com
- Pro Football Focus (PFF)
- NFL’s Next Gen Stats
- ESPN Fantasy
Also, as a reminder, we, here at Fantasy In Frames, refer to all player statistics using 0.5 PPR scoring and for IDP purposes utilize our default scoring rubric which can be found on the image below.
Now that we got all the cool and detailed disclaimers out of the way, let’s talk about some of my 4-EYED OBSERVATIONS from week 1 of the fantasy football season!
Quarterback: Dak Prescott looked elite on Sunday!
Rayne Dakota Prescott, a quarterback who I mentioned in my 4-EYED PREVIEWS OF THE NFC EAST as a potential league winner due to the plethora of receiving weapons at his disposal this season, looked like the most confident quarterback in the league on Sunday. He played like a man who was out to show Cowboy’s owner Jerry Jones why he is worth a HUGE contract extension this season.
According to PFF, Dak Prescott had an NFL grade of 92.6 (91.2 passing and 71.6 rushing). For the day he posted the following statistics (compiled from sources listed above):
- 158.3 % passer rating (1st in the league as of the end of Sunday’s slate of games)
- 3rd in completion percentage with 78.1%
- 2nd in the league passing yards with 405
- 2nd in the league in TDs with 4
- 8th in aggressiveness percentage (amount of time a passer throws the ball into tight coverage where the defender is within 1 yard of the intended receiver; attempts into tight windows/all passing attempts=%)
- 4th in average completed air yards (average air yards a passer throws on completions) with 8.6
- 2nd in fantasy points scored among quarterbacks with 33.4 fpts
Now that all being said he posted all these numbers playing the New York Giants, who yielded the most passing yards to any opponent in week 1. Some might ask, ” he just got lucky playing an average/below average team. What can we really expect from him going forward?!”
That’s a great question! Over the next 5 weeks the Cowboys will be playing against following teams who gave up the following passing yards & fantasy points (fpts) to opposing quarterbacks in week 1:
- Redskins (10th in passing yards allowed with 313/25 fpts)
- Dolphins (4th in passing yards allowed with 378/33.6 fpts)
- Saints (16th in passing yards allowed with 268/30.7 fpts
- Green Bay (19th in passing yards allowed with 208/8.2 fpts)
- Jets (16th in passing yards allowed with 242/16 fpts)
Based on what I see here, the next three weeks look very advantageous for Prescott’s fantasy value based not only on passing yards but fantasy points allowed to the opposing team’s quarterback. Everyone saw Green Bay’s defensive performance on Thursday Night Football, so there is a chance that matchup might prove difficult defensively, but then right afterward the Cowboys play the Jets giving Dak 4 out of the next 5 matchups in which he should be putting up solid numbers for your fantasy team He’ll be your QB1 over the 1st quarter of the season. Mark. My. Words.
Running Back: I think Mark Ingram will do just fine in Baltimore!
If you listened to our latest podcast episode where we were discussing fantasy players in the AFC North and South you probably heard every single member of the podcast rave about new RAVEN Mark Ingram. How could we not?! He was going to an offense that was going to an offense that was going to exploit the rushing ability of 2nd-year quarterback Lamar Jackson which would create open running lanes for him to navigate through on his way to fantasy football success.
And guess what…we were right!
Ingram, on the day, posted the following stat line:
- 6th in fantasy points scored by an RB with 22.7
- 3rd in yards per carry with 7.6 (SEVEN POINT SIX)
- 5th in rushing yards with 107
- 12th in terms of facing 8 or more defenders in the box
It’s the last metric of facing fewer than 8 or more defenders in the box that will serve Ingram well on the season as he’ll be sure to face fewer defenders against the run just as long as the threat of Lamar Jackson running exists..which it will.
Going forward into next week Ingram faces a Cardinals defense that yielded 116 rushing yards to the pass-heavy offense of the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Look for Ingram to feast again when the Ravens host their home opener in Baltimore this weekend!
Wide Receiver: Yes, I’m a Redskins fan. Yes, I’m writing about another Cowboy. Deal with it.
Michael Gallup, who I mentioned in my 4-EYED PREVIEW For Week 1 last week, took advantage of all the defensive coverage on Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, and Jason Witten and produced as the big-play wide receiver for the Cowboys in Week 1 posting the following stats:
- 15th in fantasy points with 19.3
- 6th in yards per target with 22.6
- 9th in receptions with 7
- 3rd among wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception with 12
- 1st in catch percentage with 100. That’s right…he caught EVERYTHING
Gallup led all receivers on his team in terms of deep-ball playmaking ability and will now face Redskins defense who just got shredded by Eagles deep-threat Desean Jackson. Gallup is rostered in 78.8% of ESPN fantasy leagues. Insert him into your starting roster next week!
Tight End: Delaine Walker is STILL THE MAN in Tennessee!
A year removed from an ACL tear Delanie Walker returned this past Sunday right where he left off on this Titans offense in being the team leader in receptions and fantasy receiving points.
- 4th among TEs in fantasy points scored with 20
- 1st in fantasy points scored in the redzone among TEs
- 3rd in completion percentage among TEs with 83.3
- 9th in receiving yards with 55
- Earned a PFF grade of 90.5
The fact of the matter is the passing game goes through Walker as long as Mariota is the quarterback. Volume will be key for Walker going forward this season. Start him with confidence each week as one of the consistent tight ends in fantasy football.
Defensive Back: A cornerback IDP stud?! Um…OK
Logan Ryan was a beast on Sunday versus the Cleveland Browns!
- 10th among DBs with solo tackles with 7
- 2nd in tackles for a loss with 1.5
- 1st in sack yards with 11.5
- 1st in QB hits with 2
- 1st in fantasy points scored among ALL DBs with 23.8
With opposing offenses avoiding WR/CB matchups with Malcolm Butler, Ryan is the fantasy beneficiary amongst the two corners and seeing as how he is picking right back from his career year in 2018 Ryan is sure to have a field day with inexperienced quarterback Jacoby Brissett and the Colts offense in week 2! Ryan is just rostered in 7.7% of IDP leagues on ESPN. Pick him up!
Defensive Lineman: OH KAAAY, we see you Sam Hubbard!
- 10 total tackles (1st among DLs)
- 2nd among DLs in tackles for a loss with 2.5
- 2nd among DLs in sack yards with 16
- 1st among DLs in QB hits with 4
- 1st among DLs in fantasy points with 20
Ummm this second-year defensive end is pretty damn good and is only 2% rostered in IDP leagues on ESPN. Next up is the 49ers who didn’t exactly look to sharp against Tampa Bay. He is the very definition of a waiver-wire gem. I’m running to my waiver-wire to get him. You should too!
Linebacker: Jordan Hicks made the adjustment to ILB pretty well, I’d say.
- 14 total tackles (2nd among LBs)
- 4 stuffs (according to ESPN)
- 3rd in fantasy points scored among LBs with 20.5
There’s no flashy intro and/or discussion needed for Jordan Hicks. He’s a thumper. He’ll be a consistent tackle producing machine. He has the makings to become the Fantasy In Frames 2019 #TACKLEMACHINE!
He’s, also, only rostered in 29.8% of IDP leagues on ESPN. He faces a run heavy Ravens team in week 2 which is a great opportunity to rack up tackle numbers. I’d say having him in your starting lineup would be a good decision on your part!