2019 Best Ball Tight End Preview
Hello, #4EYEDFans!
No fantasy football position has the greatest lack of depth than tight end. Of the top 100 leaders in receiving yards in the NFL in 2018, only 17 were tight ends in this era where passing records are being broken on a regular basis. While some teams will eschew the pass catching TE for someone who can block, thereby giving the QB a little bit longer to find open receivers further down the field; TE have become important check down options for QB’s and should remain that way in the foreseeable future, particularly as offenses continue to trend towards the pass.
Elites
This is going to be shortest category in this break down of tight ends, due to the fact that with the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, there are only two guys currently that fit this group.
Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs
Over the last four seasons, Travis Kelce has been undisputedly the most consistently productive fantasy football tight end in the NFL. He has missed only one game in the last four seasons and his average fantasy points per game in half PPR leagues has risen from 9.6 points in 2015 to an amazing 15.2 ppg in 2018, which lead all tight ends. With last years NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball on what was statistically the best offense in the NFL, Kelce is no doubt one of the best in the game. The beauty of a player like Kelce is that you are likely to accumulate wide receiver level points at the tight end position. In 2018, Kelce finished 10th in the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, as well as, amassing 10 TD receptions which was good enough for 7th. So, the strategy for Kelce in your best ball fantasy draft is, do not be afraid to draft him high and in line with some of the top wide receivers. Combine his statistical excellence, his durability and the fact that the Wide receiver pool is a whole lot deeper than the TE pool, picking Kelce his looks to be a good strategy, filling a need at a tough position to fill and still having enough time to pick up a more productive wide receiver as compared to a tight end with a future pick.
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles
Zach Ertz is the personification of the idea that the tight end is the QB’s best friend, no matter if it was Michael Vick, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Nick Foles, Carson Wentz or a few other guys that had the sporadic start for the Eagles since 2013, they have always been able to find Ertz. In his first five seasons, Ertz established himself as a very good tight end statistically, however, in 2018, he exploded and provided a statistical season that pushed him into the elite category. Playing in all 16 games for the first time since 2014, Ertz caught 116 balls (led all NFL tight ends) for 1,163 yards and 8 touchdowns, while averaging 13.9 ppg in half PPR fantasy leagues. According to Fantasydata.com Ertz is projected to average just over 11 points per game in 2019. A note of warning, however, as a best ball fantasy TE he poses a bit of a risk due to his injury history; now he has never had an injury that caused him to miss any significant time in his career, however he did miss two games in each of his two seasons prior to last season, so is still one of the best receivers, but as always have a back up plan ready just in case.
Trending in the Right Direction
George Kittle – San Francisco 49’ers
One of the biggest breakout stars in the NFL in 2018 was San Francisco 49’ers tight end George Kittle. In his second year, Kittle led all tight ends with 1,377 receiving yards and his 13.4 fantasy ppg in half PPR scoring formats had him finishing third behind Kelce and Ertz. Playing on an offense that suffered a huge blow when starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo injured his knee and was lost for the season after only 3 games; Kittle would become the go-to receiving option for back ups CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens. Kittle is durable, Garoppolo is returning and the 49’ers offense has amassed weapons that could potentially put them in the NFL’s upper tier. So, then the question you have to ask yourself is where are you drafting Kittle? Is he the #3 TE behind Kelce and Ertz or does he supplant one of them in that coveted elite status?
Eric Ebron – Indianapolis Colts
The greatness of a player often times could depend on one of two things, their ability to shape the environment that they are in to fit their greatness, or their ability to fit into a system in order to become great. My guess is that Eric Ebron fits into the latter description. In his first four years in Detroit he was good, but not great; he made plays, but was not a superstar; he was part of a very fantasy friendly offense, but was never a breakout top tier pick. By signing with the Indianapolis Colts prior to last season, Ebron vaulted into that upper echelon of fantasy football tight ends. Last season Ebron amassed career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He was the second leading receiver on the team and by the middle of the season he would become the Colts starting TE after a hip injury to starter Jack Doyle ended his season. Ebron would finish as the fourth highest scoring fantasy TE in the NFL with an average of almost 12 points per game in half ppr leagues. With an all-pro QB in Andrew Luck throwing 25% of his passes to his TE in 2018, look for that trend to continue with Ebron getting the bulk of those targets. Ebron projects to be a number 4-6 TE pick and in half PPR best ball leagues he should be on the higher end.
Other Trending Tight Ends:
Evan Engram, New York Giants; David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Injury Risk – High Reward
Hunter Henry – Los Angeles Chargers
In his second season in 2017, Hunter Henry was being looked upon as a future elite TE; he had supplanted future Hall of Fame tight end Antonio Gates as the starter in Los Angeles and he would finish third on the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns. The Chargers thought so much of Henry that they released Gates and prepared to go into the 2018 season with Henry getting the vast majority of the snaps at tight end. Unfortunately, the plans derailed as Henry would suffer a torn ACL during OTAs and miss the entire season. He returns in 2019 to an offense that ranked 11th in the NFL last season, but is he read to take the next step to upper level fantasy TE status. Before the injury that cost him the 2018 season he had previously averaged 7.5 fantasy ppg (fantasydata.com) in both 2016 and 2017. There are those who see his ADP being in the top five but with his he has missed games in both seasons prior to 2018, which makes him quite a risky pick in best ball leagues. While his rookie season saw him score the fifth most touchdowns by a rookie TE in NFL history, he is without a doubt a high risk, potentially high reward pick. From a best ball perspective, if you are planning to take Henry with your first TE selection, my suggestion would be to prepare to follow up in short order with another TE, again as I mentioned, the TE position is thin so a second relative effective TE would need to be there just in case.
OJ Howard – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Going into his third NFL season, OJ Howard needs to live up to hype that led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take him with the 19th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft out of the University of Alabama. In his first two seasons, he has shown flashes of being that top flight tight end, having scored 11 touchdowns and amassing 997 total yards in the 24 games that he has played. However, that’s where the issue arises and that’s what makes him a risky best ball pick, the fact that he has played in only 24 of a possible 32 Buccaneer games in his two seasons. Before being placed on the injured reserve last season, Howard was averaging over 10 fantasy ppg in half ppr fantasy leagues. Surprisingly to many, Tampa was an offensive force last season, finishing third in the NFL in total offense, including being the #1 team in total passing yards. So, there is plenty of offense to go around for Howard, who looks to flourish under new head coach Bruce Arians. As with Hunter Henry, Howard is a risk and I would have a Plan B ready just in case, but I see more potential in a great season for Howard than Henry. Howard could be the focal point in Arians new Bucs offense and could benefit from what is hopefully an older, more mature Jameis Winston.
Other Injury Risks:
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans; Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts; Greg Olson, Carolina Panthers, Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
Solid Picks on Good Offenses:
Kyle Rudolph – Minnesota Vikings
Another year catching passes from Kirk Cousins and surrounded by an offense that boasts all-pro level weapons that should open up plenty of opportunities for Rudolph to amass respectable levels of offense. Also, provides stability as Rudolph has not missed a game in the last four seasons.
Jared Cook – New Orleans Saints:
Had his first all-pro season and his best season in 2018 on a mediocre, at best, Oakland Raiders offense; now he joins a New Orleans offense with Drew Brees throwing him the ball. If Cook can stay healthy, which he has remained relatively healthy throughout his career, look for another big year out of the veteran.
Trey Burton – Chicago Bears:
As the Bears offense evolves and matures under Head Coach Matt Nagy, TE Trey Burton might be seeing an even greater role than he did last season. Coming off career highs in every major statistical category in 2018, Burton is going into the prime years of his career and he will be a key target for QB Mitchell Trubisky. He is a red zone favorite of Trubisky as five of his six touchdowns were from 13 yards and in and he has a catch rate of 71% which ranked him fourth in the NFL among TE’s who were targeted 75 or more times last season.
Other Solid Picks:
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons; Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh Steelers