2019 Best Ball Quarterback Preview
Hello, #4EYEDFans!
For those people in best ball fantasy draft leagues, there is no bigger day on the calendar than the draft, while in most fantasy formats the draft is similarly important, it is also what you do throughout the season both in terms of waiver wire pickups, as well as the setting of lineups and the following of injury reports that propel most teams to the top of the standings. In a best ball league, the regular day-to-day monitoring of your lineup does not have the same kind of urgency as your more traditional leagues have as there is no waiver wire or trade capabilities allowed. Who you draft is who you got for the season! Therefore, the mindset of a person going into a draft in a typical league is going to be pretty significantly different than the one for a person in a best ball league.
In a typical league, the later rounds are usually reserved for finding depth players to step in when your starters are on bye weeks or potentially to store a hand cuff, maybe even to take a chance on a player where you see a potential fantasy stud in the making. That is not the case when it comes to a Best Ball league, from top to bottom, when you are in the midst of a BB draft, you always have to keep in mind that the player that you are drafting is someone that could score you the points you need to win your week.
The quarterback position has seen a downslide in it value over the years as the skill positions of running back and wide receiver have taken most of the top spots in fantasy football drafts. In a best ball draft, as opposed to a typical draft, the strategy of taking one quarterback early and then waiting until the end of the late middle/end of the draft to take your second should not be a strategy that is employed. Remember, in a best ball league, everyone is always in play, so the idea that you will have one elite QB on your roster and only sub him out when he is on a bye week with a vastly inferior QB is a strategy that will limit your point scoring potential. This is one of those newer strategies that you have to be cognizant of when you are picking your team.
Elite Level QBs
We all know the elite QBs in the NFL and those that will go in the first few rounds of most, if not all, fantasy drafts in every type of format. It does not take the greatest fantasy football mind to pick them out, so if you are sitting there in the first round and want to make an extremely bold move by picking a QB first, here are a couple that deserve your consideration.
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
The season that Patrick Mahomes put up last season was historic, he threw for just under 5,100 yards and 50 touchdowns, while completing 66% of his passes. According to fantasypros.com, Mahomes was far and away the top scoring fantasy QB in the NFL in 2018. The red flag here will be whether Mahomes takes a bit of a step back this season as he has now lost both his top RB in Kareem Hunt, as well as the impending suspension/release of leading WR Tyreek Hill.
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers
By this time, you know what you are going to get when you have Aaron Rodgers on the field. No matter what the talent level surrounding him, he is going to get the most out of each one of those guys, the question that always surrounds Rodgers is will he be able to stay healthy or what nagging injury will follow him around, affecting his usually stellar performances.
Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts
In my mind and as always with the caveat that he stays healthy, Andrew Luck might be the surest shot of any NFL QB going into the 2019 season. The Colts will field perhaps the best offensive line in the NFL and while they are not flashy, a very good and consistent receiving corps.
Other Elite level QB To Consider – Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Potential for Big Seasons
Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns
In only his second year, Baker Mayfield has been given the keys to perhaps one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL. He was already in a good spot with a receiving corps that featured a very good player in Jarvis Landry, to go along with promising young receivers in Antonio Callaway and TE David Njoku. And then the Browns pulled off one of the most shocking trades in a long time as they secured one of the best WRs in the game in Odell Beckham Jr. from the New York Giants. With the wealth of talent in the receiver spots, to go along with a potentially top-notch backfield headed by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, as well as, Mayfield’s own ability to scramble out of the pocket, Mayfield could be a very interesting mid to even early round pick in many best ball formats.
Mitchell Trubisky – Chicago Bears
So not every season when you say that the person had a “breakout” season does the stats have to reach Mahomes-like levels. Sometimes a player can just have a season that exceeded the expectations of what most of the experts though that it would be. That is what I saw last year in Mitchell Trubisky, in making the Pro-Bowl in his second year (first as a starter for the full season) Trubisky had some amazing games that would have been a top scoring game in every best ball league, especially Week 4 against Tampa where he threw for 354 yards and 6 TDs vs Tampa. With strong talent surrounding him, like RBs Tarik Cohen, WR Allen Robinson and TE Trey Burton, among others, Trubisky looks to be a good, if not great value pick in the later rounds of your BB draft.
Other Big Season Potential – Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills; Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens; Sam Darnold – New York Jets
Injury Redemption
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles
The only thing that has stopped Carson Wentz from reaching near elite fantasy Quarterback status over the last two seasons has been the season ending injuries that he has sustained. In 2017, despite missing the last 3 regular season games, Wentz was top 5 in most fantasy league points among QB’s. While in 2018, those numbers dropped off only because of the fact that his injury came earlier in the season. In his first three seasons, Wentz has seen his statistics get better and better, from his rookie year in 2016 to last year, Wentz has seen his completion percentage go from 62.4% to 69.6%, his average passing yards per game has gone up from 236 yards to 279 yards per game and he doubled his TD passes from 16 to 33 between his rookie year and his sophomore year and was on a pace to match his 2nd year total in 2018 when the injury hit. He may be one of the most intriguing Best Ball Fantasy eligible quarterbacks in the NFL in that if he is chosen high in any draft, it will be based on the potential that he has shown. His boom or bust status in a best ball league makes him a big risk, but for my money, with the weapons that he has around him and an offensive line that is ranked in the Top 5 according to Pro Football Focus, taking Wentz in as a mid-round pick of your draft would be a risk worth taking.
Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49’ers
The hype going into last season could not have been bigger for Jimmy Garoppolo, having won his first five games as the starter for the 49’ers and then signing a massive contract in the offseason. Everything was a go for Jimmy G until week three against Kansas City when he scrambled to get a first down and planted his foot the wrong way, tearing his ACL, missing the rest of the 2018 season. Returning in 2019, Garoppolo will be surrounded by some pretty special weapons, specifically Pro Bowl Tight End George Kittle who led all tight ends in the NFL in receiving yards in 2018 with 1,377. Garoppolo will also be flanked this year by a running back committee consisting of Jerick McKinnon, Matt Breida and newly signed Tevin Coleman; as well as WR’s Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis. Having these weapons while playing under a Kyle Shannahan offense, will make Garoppolo a very intriguing best ball #2 QB to be taken in the later rounds. If you want to take him mid-round and take that chance it would not be the worst pick ever made, but do not get overly seduced by the potential as he will still need to prove that he is all the way back from injury and that he can take the rigors of starting potentially 16 games when he has never started more than five in one season previously.
Best Ball QBs High to Early Middle Rounds
Patrick Mahomes
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Deshaun Watson
Russell Wilson
Matt Ryan
Baker Mayfield
Mid-Round picks
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Phillip Rivers
Kirk Cousins
Mathew Stafford
Nick Foles
Carson Wentz
Mitchell Trubisky
Jameis Winston
Josh Allen
Sam Darnold
Late Middle to Later Rounds
Jared Goff
Dak Prescott
Lamar Jackson
Derek Carr
Marcus Mariota
Josh Rosen
Eli Manning
Joe Flacco
Wait for Pre-Season and make your choice
Kyler Murray
Jimmy Garappolo
Cam Newton
Case Keenum/Dwayne Haskins (whoever the Redskins decide to start)