Hello, #4EYEDFans!
Welcome to our sixth divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW of the 2019 fantasy football season! As the title implies today I’ll be discussing the fantasy football outlook of each team in the AFC WEST. While this is not to be a comprehensive list of sleepers and potential breakout players (that’s where listening to the podcast comes in….HINT), I will be discussing which players on each team should bring you the most fantasy football success.
ALSO, as we all know anything can happen between now and the beginning of the regular season, so to ensure you are getting the best information out there from us we will continue to add and/or potentially subtract players from this and the following 4-EYED PREVIEW articles between now and fantasy draft time come August!
As a reminder we here at Fantasy In Frames, base all of our analysis and projections on 0.5 PPR scoring and our new 2019 IDP scoring rubric found here:
Furthermore, all football stats are provided by the good people over at:
With that, let’s get started!
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes is not a great quarterback, yet. He just made a TON of plays in 2019. Until you see him constantly changing up plays at the line of scrimmage like a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, and adjusting on the fly quickly and effortlessly before the snap please refrain from calling him great. The good news, however, he has one of the best QB developers in Andy Reid that has ever coached quarterbacks, so give his greatness time.
In 2018, Mahomes, at the QB position, was 1st in fantasy points per game (fppg) with 26.1, 1st in TDs (50), 1st in deep-ball passing attempts, 2nd in passing yards (5,097), 10th in passing attempts per game, 11th in pressured completion percentage (40.6), and 11th in accuracy among starting QBs. In the redzone, he ranked 1st with 35 TDs and 1 INT. Within the 10-yard line he scored 20 of 35 redzone TD passes and 0 INTs.
He plays behind the 5th best offensive line when it pertains to pass-blocking and is on an offense that ranks 1st in yards per drive with 41.53.
Look, the dude is good quarterback. He is a GREAT fantasy football quarterback. At somepoint, both definitions will be one and the same. The fact of the matter TD regression is coming. He’s not posting 50 TDs in back-to-back seasons. However, he has one of the highest floors in the league in terms of fantasy point production given the skill position players on that offense.
Mahomes is a top 3 quarterback in fantasy football in 2019.
RUNNING BACK
Damien Williams. OK, here we go. Fantasy Football Twitter has been up in arms about Williams. Some like his upside, some say he was a flash in the pan. I say he took advantage of a REALLY good opportunity towards the end of 2018, and is in a REALLY good opportunity in 2019 for fantasy football success.
In 2018, while lining up in shotgun formation, “DWill”, as the kids say, averaged 5.4 yards per carry. While lining up with QB under center he averaged 5.0 yards per carry. BTW so did Melvin Gordon and Nick Chubb. He was 7th in juke rate (a measure of elusiveness), 1st in fantasy points per opportunity (including total carriers and receptions), 11th in fppg within the 5 yards line (2nd in the postseason). By the way that 11th ranking put him ahead of Christian McCaffery, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, and David Johnson.
His current ADP has him going, in 10-team leagues, at 20th overall. The real question is if he is worth his ADP?
He’s 27 years old, he was never able to claim the starting running back position during most of his time in Miami, and when he did he got injured and never had a chance to prove himself with lead duties.
With all due respect, that was in Miami. That was then and this is now and right now he’s projected to average 14.1 fppg in an Andy Reid offense that typically features only one running back on one of, if not, the best offense in the NFL. I generally like picking good players on good teams in terms of offense, and with his upside, that’s good enough for me! He proved down the stretch of the regular season and postseason that he can be heavily utilized in the running and passing game and be successful while doing so. And AFTER ALL THAT if you are still worried about taking Williams that high how about you just…you know…draft better depth at the running back after Williams?!
Shocking, right, that you can plan for potential deficiencies at a certain position by drafting good players in the later rounds at that same position to justify drafting for upside earlier. Isn’t that what we do anyhow?!
Geesh…. It’s almost as if there is some strategy required when drafting players for fantasy football. 🤔
I really don’t give up on players in good situations who’ve played well recently , and are guaranteed to have plenty of volume. I hear that’s a good thing to have, which is why I won’t shy away from drafting “DWill” at his ADP and neither should you!
RECEIVERS
Tyreek Hill was 1st on the Chiefs in targets (137) 2nd among all starting wide receivers in the NFL in yards per reception with 17, 3rd in TDs with 12, and 3rd in fantasy points per game in 2018 with 17.8. Assuming more news doesn’t come out between now and the regular season, Hill is a top 10 WR. Draft him as such, or if you are completely turned off by what he’s done off the field just don’t draft him at all. That’s my biased assessment of Tyreek Hill.
Travis Kelce was 2nd in the league in receiving yards with 1,336, 2nd in redzone targets, 4th in endzone targets, 1st in target share among all TEs, 1st in contested targets and receptions with 48.3 completion percentage, and led all TEs with a fantasy point per game average of 15.2.
He’s worth a second-round pick in 2019.
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE
DEFENSIVE LINEMAN
Frank Clark, the newly acquired defensive end from Seattle, will be playing in a similar role and defensive scheme he had last season where he totaled 34 solo tackles, 27 QB hits, 14 sacks, and averaged 8.2 fppg. Is there concern for a drop off with Clark? Sure, but you can say that about any player changing teams. However, as I said earlier the continuity in defensive scheme should make for a smooth transition for Clark in 2019. He’s a DL2 with DL1 upside.
LINEBACKERS
Anthony Hitchens will have an opportunity to exceed his performance from 2018. Playing out of his natural position in 2018, he was still able to tally 81 solo tackles, 6.5 sacks, and average 11.8 fantasy points per game. Now with new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo converting this defense back to a 4-3 base formation, Hitchens will move back into his natural role as middle linebacker looking to make an even bigger impact both in real and fantasy football for the Cheifs in 2019. He’s a solid LB2 that you can wait on in your fantasy drafts this upcoming season.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Tyrann Matthieu played at strong safety in Houston in 2018. He had 89 total tackles, 8 passes defensed, and averaged 10 fantasy points per game. Tyrann Matthieu will play strong safety in Kansas City in 2019. He’s projected to average 9.5 fantasy points per game. Tyrann Matthieu is good at football and fantasy football. You should draft him in fantasy football. That is all.
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Philip Rivers was:
- 2nd most accurate passer in the NFL
- 6th in deep-ball completion percentage
- 6th in TDs with 32
- 8th in total passing yards with 4,308
- 9th in overall completion percentage
- 12th in play-action completion percentage
He averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game (fppg) in 2018, and with the return of Hunter Henry and further development of Mike Williams at the receiver positions (WR/TE), Rivers is poised to at least repeat if not surpass his fantasy totals from last year making him a perfect late-round quarterback addition to your roster in 2019!
RUNNING BACK
Melvin Gordon. Melvin “f******” Gordon with his contract hold out talk is messing up the write-up I had prepared for him.
I could bring up that he was 3rd in fppg among running backs with 20.3 fantasy points, 7th in receiving TDs, averaged 5.2 yards per carry, had the most yards per carry among starting running backs from within the 5-yard line, runs behind the 5th best offensive line in the league in terms of adjusted line yards, and is projected to average 15.3 fantasy points per game in 2019.
I could tell you all that, but he had to go hold out for more money, which more power to him. Running backs have a short shelf-life and should get all the money they can while they can. However, the longer this holdout goes the more I’d recommend waiting to draft him in the second round of your fantasy football drafts. He could provide tremendous value there, obviously.
As with all other 4-EYED PREVIEWS, we will be monitoring this story closely during training camp and making appropriate changes to these articles as news develops.
RECEIVERS
Keenan Allen averaged 74.8 yards per game, was 12th among the top 20 WRs in fantasy football in yards per catch (12.3), had a 71.3 catch percentage which was 2nd among the top 20 WRs, and had the 5th most red-zone touchdowns in the league at WR with 6. He averaged 13.2 fantasy points per game in 2018.
Look let me shoot straight with you. Keenan Allen isn’t on this list of players because he’s going to win you a fantasy football championship. He’s on this list due to his ability to give you a relatively stable fantasy point scoring floor which in turn will not COST you a fantasy football championship. He’s a fantastic choice as your WR2 come fantasy draft time in any format.
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE
DEFENSIVE LINEMAN
Joey Bosa, while only playing in 7 games last season, tallied 6 sacks (2nd on the team), 23 total tackles, 42.5 sack yards (2nd on the team), and averaged 8.1 fantasy points per game. That is INSANE. Fully expected to play a full 16 games, projections for Bosa have him with 64 total tackles, 13 sacks, and averaging 9 fppg. Do I really have to say more?! DL1. NEXT.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Derwin James led all players on the Chargers entire defense in total tackles (75), passes defensed (13), interceptions (3), and fantasy points per game (11.7). That’s right, I said on the ENTIRE DEFENSE. He’s projected to average 11 fantasy points per game in 2019, and honestly, when it is all said an done he’ll more than likely earn more. What are you waiting for? Go….draft him as your DB1. GO!
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE
RUNNING BACK
Josh Jacobs, the number 24 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, in his final year at Alabama, averaged 5.3 yards per carry, 12.4 yards per reception, and had 13 TDs on the season. He didn’t eclipse 1,000 yards rushing then or at any point during his college career. So, not horrible, not great, but not horrible. His player comparison coming out of the draft was to Sony Michel. Again, OK, not great, not horrible.
Ringing endorsements I’m giving you for this guy aren’t I?
Let me tell you why you want to draft him as your RB2 in 2019
- The last time Jon Gruden drafted a running back in the first round he ran that dude into the ground, which was great for fantasy, not so much for his career
- The lack of competition at the running back position ensures him plenty of volume in an offense which should see fewer defenders in the box due to the new receiving threat acquisition I’ll be discussing next spreading out the defense
- Reports are stating that Jacobs will take on more duties as a pass-catching back ensuring him an every-down role in that offense, thus raising his ceiling in all formats in fantasy football
- The Raiders offensive line ranked 13th in adjusted line yards which pretty much means they’re decent when it comes to run blocking, which I hear is good for a running back
Starting running backs that have an every-down role with a decent offensive line are hard to find in fantasy football. The upgrades at wide receiver in Oakland this offseason should allow Jacobs to provide upside for you in fantasy football. He’s projected to average 12.1 fantasy points per game. Just be careful, as he faces some stingy defenses in the early part of the season.
RECEIVERS
Antonio Brown is not in Pittsburgh anymore. Understatement of the year, right? Therefore, any stats I tell you about AB during his time in Pittsburgh are pretty much useless. Ironically, the only stats that matter when it pertains to Brown now are stats pertaining to his new quarterback, Derek Carr.
Carr, in 2018, was the 5th most accurate passer in the NFL among starting QBs (yeah that blew my mind, too), 18th in deep-ball pass attempts (20 yards or more), and was 9th in deep-ball completion percentage with 44%. He was, also, 12th in pass attempts ahead quarterbacks such as DeShaun Watson, Philip Rivers, and Drew Brees.
That’s it. Those were the only positives I could find in Carr’s production that might provide a glimmer of hope for the outlook for Antonio Brown. That being said why is he on this list?
Because he’s ANTONIO “FREAKING” BROWN!
Look he’s the best wide receiver on that roster, the team will likely be playing from behind in most situations which means more targets will come his way, and with such a high target volume in that offense, he’s bound to have success for you in fantasy football. You can feel GREAT about drafting him as your WR1….2….1….ummmm. Hmm.
You can feel GOOD about him as your WR1, but GREAT about him as your WR2.
#SorryNotSorryButKindaSorry
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE
LINEBACKERS
*I’ll get into the reasoning why I’m leaving Tahir Whitehead and Vontez Burfict off of this list on our AFC East/West podcast episode this week!*
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE
RUNNING BACK
Philip Lindsay was pretty darn good in 2018, right?! Among the top 15 ranked fantasy running backs from 2018, Lindsay was 4th versus stacked boxes (24%) yet was able to average 5.4 yards per carry, which was second among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts. He was 7th in TDs (9), 9th in rushing yards (1,037), and 13th in fantasy points per game with 13.7 at the running back position.
Now, fully recovered from a wrist injury that ended his rookie season, new Broncos offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello has been lining up Lindsay at wide receiver in passing down situations which can only raise his ceiling from a fantasy football perspective in both 0.5 PPR and full PPR leagues.
He’s, currently, projected to average 11.7 fantasy points per game and that is a conservative estimate, I believe, for two reasons:
- The jury is still out on his health
- Royce Freeman is still lurking in the shadows of that backfield looking to take control of the starting RB spot given his draft pedigree from 2017
While those are two reasons to be concerned, this wouldn’t be the first time Lindsay has beaten the odds. He beat out Freeman last season for the starting role as an undrafted free agent and by all accounts looks to be 100% recovered from wrist surgery.
Lindsay is the prototypical example of what an RB2 is in fantasy football, and if the passing game is able to take off, although highly unlikely, Lindsay could even push for RB1 upside.
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE
LINEBACKERS
Von Miller & Bradley Chubb are pretty much the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. Let me show you some kick-ass stats:
Miller: 14.5 sacks, 27 hits on QB, 16.5 tackles for a loss, and averaged 9.2 fppg.
Chubb: 12 sacks, 22 hits on QB, 16.5 tackles for a loss, and averaged 8.7 fppg…..as a rookie.
Now you bring in a new head coach, in Vic Fangio, who was able to restore the Bear’s defense in 2018 to being the true “Monsters of the Midway” with just ONE all-pro linebacker in Khalil Mack, and NOW you give him TWO all-pro pass rushers?!
Gooooodnight, folks. For those in IDP leagues with multiple Edge Rusher spots on their roster, DING DING!
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Kareem Jackson, who I mentioned earlier this offseason in my 4-EYED OBSERVATIONS: 2019 FREE AGENCY MOVES ON DEFENSE , is one of the IDPs I’m most excited to keep track of this season. The free agent from Houston, where he played a dual CB/SS role during his time there, is bringing his talents to the Denver Broncos secondary and with him comes a lot of promise. Last season, Jackson averaged 10.7 fppg, was 13th in solo tackles among DBs, 3rd in passes defensed among DBs (17), and reports out of minicamp are that he’s settling into the strong safety role. Honestly, what is not to like here?! He’s definitely a DB you could target in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts that can bring you DB1/2 upside.
That’s it for this divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW. As stated earlier the closer we get to draft season in August as well as the monitoring of player news and notes, changes will be made to this as well our other PREVIEW articles accordingly!
Stay tuned for a next divisional preview where I’ll be looking at the AFC North.
Also, don’t forget to attend and meet with some of the writers of Fantasy In Frames at the Midwest Fantasy Football Expo on August 18, 2019, in Canton, Ohio!
Hope to see you there!
Thanks for visiting Fantasy In Frames!
