The Fantasy Football Laboratory: Week 16 (2024)
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why Bryce Young is set up for a strong close to the fantasy football season.
Case Study: Bryce Young Ends as a QB1 in the Fantasy Football Playoffs (Weeks 15-17)
Young is just outside of the top 15 right now, but he’s right there. However, he has a path to potentially being a QB1 in fantasy football’s most important weeks. The reset was good for him, and he’s been effective on the ground, which has helped boost his fantasy floor. Since he reclaimed the starting role, while he’s still only averaging 213.1 passing yards and 1.1 passing touchdowns per game, the second-year QB has been more effective overall, and the last four weeks have been even better (242.8 passing yards per game, with four rushing attempts and just under 20 yards per game on the ground).
Over the last four weeks, Young ranks 11th in rushing yards at the QB position, and he actually has the ninth most rushing attempts during that span. What’s particularly intriguing is that Young also has 23.1 percent of Carolina’s carries inside the 10-yard line. There are only eight other quarterbacks who exceed 20 percent in this department during the aforementioned span! Fantasy points on the ground will be imperative for Young, and as of late, he’s been providing that.
Furthermore, Young’s next two matchups are against Arizona and Tampa Bay. That matchup against Tampa Bay is going to be juicy, as they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Young put up 20+ fantasy points against them a few weeks back. I’m not a believer in Arizona, and they are one of just nine teams to have allowed at least four rushing TDs by quarterbacks this season.
It may not be for the faint of heart, but Young could be a back-end QB1 for the fantasy football playoffs.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Trey McBride has the third-most receiving yards out of the slot over the last four weeks. Other notable placements: Adam Thielen (2nd), Brock Bowers (8th), and Jonnu Smith (13th).
- Josh Jacobs and Chase Brown are the top two running backs in fantasy points per game over the last four weeks.
- Do with this what you will: Caleb Williams has a 4:2 TD/INT ratio in the first half of games, and a 13:3 TD/INT in the second half.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 16
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
If you need help at tight end this week, Dalton Schultz could flirt with a top-12 performance at the position in Week 16. He’s been very hit or miss all season, but over the last seven games, he’s averaging just over five targets per game, and the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Furthermore, the Chiefs have really struggled in slot coverage over the last six or so weeks, and if you look over the last five weeks, Schultz has posted over 2 yards per route run out of the slot, and he’s lined up there 23.6 percent of the time, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Houston had its bye in Week 14, and in the first game out of the bye, Schultz was in the slot 32 percent of the time!