Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 4 (2024)

Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email September 28, 2024
10 minutes read
Keith's DK DFS Playbook Week 4 (2024) | Fantasy In Frames

Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! Welcome to my weekly series, Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook!

Last week my DFS Playbook on Fantasy in Frames included Andy Dalton, Diontae Johnson, and Jalen Nailor. Let’s keep the good plays coming for Week 4!

Each week, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.

When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.

My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.

Here is my DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 4 (2024)!

Broncos @ Jets (NYJ-7.5) Total 38.5

MME: Braelon Allen $5.4k (DK ownership Unknown)
  • Allen wasn’t able to match his fantasy production from week two last week
  • However, his usage numbers went up with more rush attempts and receptions
  • Over his last two games, 7 targets in the passing game, 18 rush attempts
  • This game could get out of hand early, earning Allen more touches than normal in the 2nd half 
Cash: Tyler Conklin $3.6k (1.6% DK projected ownership)
  • Conklin broke out last week with six targets, five receptions for 93 yards 
  • His ADOT for that game was over 13 yards 
  • Denver is 22nd vs. TEs on DK 
  • I’m assuming Surtain shadows Garrett Wilson, meaning the Jets’ secondary passing options will be needed in the passing more than normal. 

Vikings @ Packers (GB-2.5) Total 43.5

MME: Vikings D $2.9K
  •  The Vikings D under Brian Flores might be the best in the NFL
  • Playing the 49ers and Texans, Minnesota allowed only 24 points combined, with 11 sacks and 4 forced TOs 
  • 5 sacks or more with at least 2 forced TOs every game this season 
  • Playing a Packers offense that either will be led by Malik Willis or a hobbled Jordan Love
Cash: Aaron Jones $6.4K (10% DK ownership projection)
  • who doesn’t love a good revenge story? 
  • Aaron Jones enters this week with 242 rushing yards at 5.42 ypc and a TD on the season
  • He’s involved in the Vikings passing game as well with 12 receptions for 97 yards and TD 
  • Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley had huge DFS days against the Packers Run D
  • Barkley with 132 total yards and 3 TDs 
  • Taylor with 135 yards on just 14 touches 
  • I expect the Vikings to lean on Jones for this pivotal division matchup (fav DK play this week in cash)

Saints @ Falcons (ATL-1.5) Total 42.5 

MME: Kyle Pitts $4.8 k (1.4% DK ownership projection)
  • Pitts has 110 yards and a TD, but he’s seen only 12 targets, and his target rate is in the single digits
  • The Falcons haven’t run one play all season designed with Pitts as the first read
  • But at this price, projected to low owned, and facing a defense whose 28th vs TEs this season on DK
Cash: Darnell Mooney $4.4K (8.3% DK ownership projection)
  • Mooney’s seen 15 tgts the last two weeks 
  • Catching in that span 11 passes for 154 yards and a score 
  • 14.6 pts or more in DK back-to-back weeks 
  • saints struggle against horizontal breaking routes and Mooney is top-7 among WRs in fantasy pts per horizontal breaking routes 

Eagles @ Bucs (PHI-2.5) Total 44.5 

MME: Mike Evans 7.0k (4.9% DK ownership projection)
  • Godwin is the much safer play, but I like Evans upside for MME with his ownership projection
  • Eagles D is 26th on DK against WRs
  • If the Bucs line can give Mayfield time versus Jalen Carter and the Eagles front 4, Evans could feast, with the Eagles allowing the 3rd most yards per reception in the NFL
Cash: Saquon Barkley $8.0k (11.2 DK ownership projection%)
  • Barkley is single handedly winning games for Philly on the offensive side of the ball 
  • 351 rushing yards at 5.6 ypc 4 TDs 
  • 10 receptions 51 yards TD 
  • The game winning 65 yard TD run was a perfect summation of this season for Barkley 
  • 7 defenders in the box, expected rush yards 3, he takes it 65 yds to the house

Bengals @ Panthers (CIN-4.5) Total 48.5

MME: Erick All Jr $2.5k (ownership projection unavailable) 
  • All leads all TEs in targets per routes run 
  • He’s seeing a target on over 30% of his routes over the last two games 
  • Caught 4 passes each of his last 2 games, finishing top-20 among TEs for the week in scoring on DK 
  • Carolina is currently 30th in pts allowed to TEs on DK 
Cash: Diontae Johnson $5.6k (26% DK projected ownership) 
  • Dalton is the perfect kind of QB, who can unleash Diontae Johnson, behind the 5th best graded offensive line 
  • Bengals run man at a high rate among defenses, Johnson has a 41% target rate vs man 
  • Johnson with Bryce (2games)12 targets, 5 rec 34 yards 
  • Johnson with Dalton (1game) 14 targets 8 receptions 122 yards a score  

Jaguars @ Texans (HOU-7) total 45.5

MME: Christian Kirk $5.2k (4.3% DK ownership projection)
  •  Trevor Lawrence has been sacked 11 times this season
  • The Texans have 13 sacks this season
  • With Evan Engram out again this week, expect TLaw to look Kirk’s way often again if the Texans get consistent pressure like I expect
  • It was a similar game script last week and Kirk saw 10 targets, catching 8 passes for 76 yards (Engram missed that game as well)
Cash: Nico Collins $7.3k (19.8% DK ownership projection)
  • Collins with 28 targets (at least 8 in each), 18 receptions for 338 yards + TD this season 
  • Tank Dell is in serious danger of not playing 
  • Jags run man at highest rate in the league, Collins averaging nearly 4 yards per route run vs man the last two years
  • Collins had 5 catches for 96 yards with a TD versus the Browns, a team who plays man defense at a high rate in the Divisional Round (most came in the first half before the Texans pulled away in a game they won easily)

Steelers @ Colts (PIT-1.5) Total 39.5

MME: Calvin Austin $3.3k (3.6% DK ownership projection)
  • Austin’s usage has rose each week, currently running routes on about 60% of the Steelers passing plays  
  • Last week he turned 5 targets into 4 receptions for 93 yards and a score 
  • Colts run zone 81% of the time (2nd highest in the NFL) 
  • Austin vs zone (20% target rate), only .04% less than Pickens (Austin is $2.6k cheaper) 
  • He’s averaging 3 yards per route run vs zone this season 
  • He’s facing a Colts team whose allowed a league leading 3 receptions of 40+ yards to opposing WRs
Cash: Justin Fields $5.5k (8.4% DK ownership projection)
  • Indy is arguably the worst defense in the NFL with the loss of Deforest Buckner to IR 
  • This Colts D allowed 41 yards on the ground to Malik Willis on 6 carries in week 2 
  • Fields had his best fantasy game of the season last week vs the Chargers, with a TD on the ground and thru the air, and scored 19.4 pts on DK 
  • A monster Fields game is coming, why not in a dome vs a bad defense? 
  • In Fields 6 career dome game starts 
  • 6 Passing TDs 
  • 81 rushing yds per/2 rushing TDs 
  • 19.26 ppg fantasy (17 pts or more in 5/6)

Rams @ Bears (CHI-2.5) Total 40.5 

MME: Rome Odunze $5.2k (DK ownership projection unavailable) 
  • Odunze has fared much better vs zone than man
  • Something the Rams run at a top rate in the NFL 
  • 8 of Odzune’s 9 receptions have come vs zone and 155 of his 156 yards 
  • Ironically his one TD came vs man 
Cash: Roschon Johnson $4.1K (0.5% DK ownership projection) 
  • Reports say Johnson could see a significant workload this week
  • Last week Johnson had 62 yards on 8 touches, Swift 42 yards on 15 touches (Swift avg’g 1.8 yards per carry this season)
  • Rams are 24th vs RBs on DK

Commanders @ Cardinals (ARI-3) Total 50.5

MME: Jayden Daniels $6.5k (DK ownership projection unavailable) 

 

  • Daniels is averaging 23.2 ppg on DK 
  • He’s scored 35.1 points from rushing on DK alone thru 3 weeks with at least 10 carries in all 3 games 
  • Daniels increased his passing total each week 
  • Last week he completed 91% of his 23 pass attempts, while averaging 11.3 yards per attempt 
  • 13 straight offensive possessions have ended in points, 17/19 not including kneel downs
Cash: Marvin Harrison Jr $7.5k (27.6% DK ownership projection unavailable but it will be high)
  • With Trey McBride out expect Harrison to see a monster target share. 
  • Washington allowed the most passing yards and passing touchdowns in the NFL last season, this season they are 1st in TDs and 3rd in passing yards 
  • Number 1 WRs have been killing the commanders this season
  • Mike Evans/Malik Nabers/Ja’Marr Chase combined for 21 receptions for 307 yards and 5 TDs 
  • As good as those receivers are, in their other six games before week 4, they’ve combined for 29 receptions for 280 yards and 2 scores (for those bad at math, in twice as many games, they only have 8 more receptions, 27 less receiving yards, and 3 less TDs)

Pats @ 49ers (SF-9.5) Total 39.5

MME: Demario Douglas $4.5k (DK ownership projection unavailable) 
  • after Douglas only 3 tgts over his first two games 
  • The NE coaching staff said they had to get him the ball 
  • Week 3 he saw 9 tgts, catching 7 passes for 69 yds 
  • Expect the pats to be down and throwing often in this game 
Cash: George Kittle $5.5k (2.8% DK ownership projection) 
  • This is a must win game for SF
  • New England has done a good job stopping the run this season (this week the 49ers will need to throw the ball to move the ball consistently)
  • Kittle in his 2 games this week
  • 13 targets, 11 receptions, 14.3 ppg on DK
  • Tyler Conklin just had 93 yards on 5 receptions vs this Pats D

Browns @ Raiders (LV-1) Total 37.5

MME:  Tre Tucker $3.6k (DK ownership projection unavailable)
  • Devante Adams and Michael Mayer are ruled out this week
  • Tucker broke out last week with 7 receptions for 96 yards and a TD
  • He could easily see 5-10 targets this week with him running routes on 91% of Raiders passing plays last week (with Adams playing)  
Cash:  Brock Bowers $5.6k (DK ownership projection unavailable)
  •  The Browns currently rank 10th on DK vs TEs 
  • BUT Jake Ferguson only played 2 1/2 quarters week 1 but was targeted 5 times catching 3 passes vs the Browns, Evan Engram missed the Jags week 2 matchup vs the Browns (backup Strange caught 3 passes for 65 yards)
  • Bowers has yet to play 73% of the Raiders offensive snaps, or run routes on more than 65% of the team’s passing plays
  • This changes versus the Browns with Mayer and Adams out

Chiefs @ Chargers (KC-8.5) Total 39.5

MME:  Travis Kelce $5.8k (2.7% DK ownership projection) 
  • I never thought I would see Kelce under 6k for DFS or less than 3% owned
  • Kelce is having the worst fantasy season of his career but is a great upside play at his price/projected ownership level
  •  Kelce’s last two games vs Chargers
  • Week 7 2023: 12 receptions/179 yards/TD/35.9 pts
  • Week 11 2022: 6 receptions/115 yards/3 TDs/35.5 pts
Cash: Ladd McConkey $4.8k (DK ownership projection unavailable)
  • This could be Ladd’s breakout game
  • He’s 3rd among WRs in targets per route run at 29%
  • McConkey accounted for 50% of the Chargers first read targets Week 3
  • Quentin Johnston is having a great season but struggles with press coverage, the Chiefs have big/physical CBs who are going to give QJ issues
  • Chiefs run Cover-3 defense at the lowest rate in the NFL (14%)
  • Ladd has a 24% target rate versus Cover 3 and a 33% against all other defenses

Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9 pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays.

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Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email September 28, 2024
10 minutes read
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