Keith’s DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 1 (2024)

Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email September 7, 2024
9 minutes read
Keith's DK DFS Playbook Week 1 (2024) | Fantasy In Frames

Hey everyone, it’s Keith Flemming, the head of DFS content at Fantasy In Frames and FantasyInFrames.com and host of our NFL DraftKings DFS show, The Daily Fix! You can follow me on X at @KeithFlemming for more winning DFS advice!

This season, I’ll be providing a DraftKings MME and Cash Game play for each game of the NFL main slate each week. If you’re asking which kind of DraftKings contest I recommend, I prefer cash game contests (single-entries and 50/50s) because they give you the best chance of turning a consistent profit.

When choosing a cash game play for DraftKings, my first goal is to choose players I expect to at least score 3x their salary. Typically, in 50/50- and single-entry contests a good scoring baseline for cashing is 150 points or 3x the $50,000 salary.

My MME (multi-entry) suggestion is to focus on players with serious upside potential or low ownership. Stacking a quarterback with one or more pass catchers in your DK lineup is more important than in cash game lineups.

Here is my DraftKings DFS Playbook: Week 1 (2024)!

Steelers @ Falcons (ATL-3.5) Total 41.5

Cash Game: Bijan Robinson $7.3k
  • Bijan’s total amount of touches/usage is on the rise
  • Speaking of Arthur Smith… Revenge game for Bijan?
  • In games Bijan saw 18+ touches, he averaged 19.4 ppg on DraftKings
MME: Justin Fields $5.0k
  • If Russell Wilson misses the Steelers opener, Justin Fields should be considered for MME and Cash lineups.
  • Fields scored 20 or more points in 13 of his last 28 starts in fantasy

Cardinals @ Bills (BUF-6.5) Total 47.5

Cash: Josh Allen $8.0k
  • Allen averaged 27 ppg in his nine starts with Joe Brady calling plays
  • In those games, Allen threw 14 TDs and ran for another 11 TDs while averaging 47 yards per game on the ground
  • Last season, Arizona gave up the 2nd most rushing TDs and the 7th most ppg to opposing QBs on DraftKings
MME: Greg Dortch $3.9k
  • Last season, Dortch scored double figures 3/4 games playing 70% or more of offensive snaps.
  • Over the last two seasons, Dortch has played ten games with 70% or more of snaps played. In those games, he’s averaging eight targets, six receptions, and scoring 14.6 ppg in PPR formats (DK is PPR)
  • Zay Jones has already been ruled out, Dortch will play more than 70% of the team’s offensive snaps.

Vikings @ Giants (MIN-1.5) Total 41.5

Cash: Justin Jefferson $8.4k
  • Jefferson averaged in his eight full games last season 11.3 targets, 7.87 receptions, 127 yards receiving, and 25.96 ppg.
  • Jefferson, in four games with Nick Mullins and Jared Hall at QB, averaged 119 yards per game and 23.6 ppg on DraftKings.
MME: Wan’Dale Robinson $4.1k
  • The Vikings allowed the 4th most ppg to opposing WRs on DK last season
  • Robinson was in the top ten among WRs in true catch rate and target separation
  • Robinson played 70% or more of snaps in just six games, with five of those games coming over the final six weeks. In those final five games, Robinson averaged six targets, five receptions, and 12.8 ppg on DraftKings

Patriots @ Bengals (CIN-7.5) Total 40.5

Cash: Zach Moss $5.8k
  • Higgins is doubtful, and Chase is questionable for this game
  • This means there could be a heavy dose of the Bengals’ running game on Sunday
  • In the five games in Indy last season where Moss was the clear lead back, he averaged 21.92 ppg on DraftKings
MME: Hunter Henry $3.9k
  • Cincy struggled with TEs last season, allowing the 2nd most points on DK to them.
  • They also allowed the most receptions and yards to opposing TEs
  • There is a case for Henry being the most reliable pass catcher in the Patriots offense to start the season

Titans @ Bears (CHI-3.5) Total 44.5

Cash: Tyjae Spears $5.1k
  • The Bears gave up the 2nd most receptions and the most receiving yards, allowing 231 yards more than the Chargers, who allowed the second-most 
  • The Bengals allowed the 3rd most yards per carry to opposing RBS at 4.7 yards per rush.
  • Spears saw the 7th highest target share, the 9th most receptions, and 11th most receiving yards despite ranking 47th in opportunity shares among RBs 
MME: Rome Odunze $4.0k  
  • The Titans’ secondary gave up the 3rd most receptions to opposing WRs last season, also allowing the 5th most receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. 
  • Odunze is, in my opinion, an exceptional talent who is priced cheaply and covered by the Titans’ corner most of the game. 

Panthers @ Saints (NO -4) Total 41.5 

Alvin Kamara $6.7k
  • The Panthers allowed an NFL leading 25 touchdowns to RBs last season 
  • Kamara was 3rd in points per game for RBs in fantasy last season 
  • Despite only playing 14 games among RBs, Kamara was 2nd in targets & receptions, 6th in receiving yards, and 9th in red zone touches 
MME: Diontae Johnson $5.3k 
  • He finished last season scoring a TD in five of his last six games 
  • Johnson, now in Carolina, could see one of the highest target rates in the NFL for the Panthers 

Jaguars @ Dolphins (MIA -3.5) Total 48.5 

Cash: Tyreek Hill $8.7k 
  • Jaguars secondary last season allowed the 7th most receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing WRs
  • Jacksonville allowed the 3rd most receptions of 40+ yards to opposing WRs last year.
  • Fast starter for fantasy, Hill’s last three opening games resulted in 33.2 points per game, 506 receiving yards (168 per game), 30 receptions, and three scores
MME: Raheem Mostert $6.4k 
  • It’s confusing for me to try to understand why so many people are down on Mostert this year, following a year where he scored 21 touchdowns and saw twice the carries Achane did
  • Mostert scored double digits on DK in 14 of his 16 starts, scoring a TD in 12 of 16 games. 
  • I know everyone loves Achane, but Mostert was in the top 10 among RBs in red zone touches, points per game at RB, juke rate, evading tackles, and breakaway run rate. 

Texans @ Colts (HOU -3.5) Total 48.5 

Cash: Nico Collins $7.0k 
  • Colts run the most cover 3 in the NFL at 55%  
  • Collins was 3rd in YPRR vs Cover 3 last season 
  • Collins, in his two games versus Indy last season, caught 16 passes for 331 yards and two scores, scoring 68.5 points on DraftKings  
MME: CJ Stroud $7.5k
  • Stroud was first in QBR vs Cover 3 last season. The Colts run the most Cover 3 in the NFL.
  • In his two games against Indianapolis last season, Stroud threw for 648 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
  • Cleveland also plays Cover 3 more than most NFL teams, and we all saw what Stroud did to the Browns in the playoffs.

Raiders @ Chargers (LAC -3.5) Total 39.5 

Cash: Ladd McConkey $4.7k 
  • In college, Ladd showed the ability to lineup inside, outside, and in motion. 
  • The Chargers lost Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, and Austin Ekeler in the offseason. Those pass catchers accounted for over 60% of Justin Herbert’s career pass attempts, receptions, passing yards, and touchdowns
  • Ladd is most likely to get a significant number of the slot snaps  
MME: JK Dobbins $4.9k 
  • When Dobbins plays and is healthy, he is very fantasy-relevant, scoring double-digit points or more in 12 of his 20 career games. 
  • In 2022, among RBs, Dobbins was 2nd in juke rate and 3rd in breakaway run rate, despite seeing the 2nd most defenders in the box per rush attempt.

Broncos @ Seahawks (SEA -6) Total 39.5 

Cash: Jaxon Smith-Njigba $4.9k
  • I expect Patrick Surtain to cover Metcalf most of the game, leaving JSN to line up against rookie Riley Moss or Ja’Quan McMillian. McMillian struggled late in the season, with a PFF grade of 52.2 for weeks 12-18 last season. 
  • JSN was in the top 30 among WRs in total route wins and route win rate last season 
  • The issue with Seattle’s offense last season was that injuries ravaged their o-line.
  • Geno was in the top 12 in EPA and QBR despite the 33rd-best protection rate. JSN is one of my highest-owned players this week in cash games 
MME: Josh Reynolds $4.2k 
  • There’s a legit chance Reynolds leads the Broncos in targets early in the season, making him a real discount on DraftKings this week.
  • He’s been so good in camp that the team cut Tim Patrick, who many believed would be the number 2 WR.
  • Seattle last season allowed the 10th most receptions to opposing WRs. 
  • Despite limited opportunities in Detroit last season, Reynolds ranked 24th in fantasy points per target and 16th in QBR per target among WRs.

Cowboys @ Browns (CLE -2.5) Total 40.5 

Cash: Rico Dowdle $4.6k 
  • Despite Zeke being Dowdle’s lone competition for touches in week one in the Cowboys backfield, I haven’t seen buzz for Dowdle like I expected (except for true believer Erika Brown) this week in DFS.
  • Dowdle is the RB under 5k I’m most comfortable with projecting he’ll score 10+ pts this week on DraftKings.
  • In Dowdle’s four games, with 20% or more offensive snaps, he averaged 8.7 ppg despite never exceeding 31% of plays. 
  • Among RBs, Dowdle was 9th in yards created per touch, 23rd in yards per touch, and 18th in juke rate. 
MME: Cee Dee Lamb $8.9k 
  • I expect Lamb to be low-owned due to the Browns’ defense ranking 3rd against WRs last season on DraftKings, and with Lamb’s chances of playing technically still in doubt (spoiler: he’s playing) 
  • Making Lamb someone who you should at least strongly consider for multi-entry events, Lamb saw double-digit targets in his last six games while averaging 12.8 targets per in that span. 
  • The Browns are a tough matchup for WRs, but Lamb was first among WRs in total route wins, EPA, fantasy points scored, receptions, YAC, touchdowns, targets, and red zone targets.

Commanders @ Bucs (TB -3.5) Total 42.5

Cash: Mike Evans $7.3k 
  • Evans had eight games last season of 20+ pts on DK, 4 of 30+ pts 
  • He’s facing a Wash defense that allows the most passing yards in the NFL, the most passing TDs, 60 receptions of 20+ yds, and 12 receptions of 40+ yards 
  • Evans led all WRs in air yards and deep targets last season, and he opens with maybe the worst secondary in the NFL (I love stacking him with Baker) 
MME: Terry McLaurin $5.7k 
  • McLaurin, despite catching passes over his first five seasons in the NFL from Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heniecke, Garrett Gilbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Wentz, and Sam Howell. He’s had at least 58 receptions for 919 yards and 4 TDs despite below-average QBs throwing him the ball. 
  • Last season, McLaurin ranked 2nd in routes and 19th in targets. He left many potential fantasy points out due to being 9th in unrealized air yards last season. 
  • Enter Jayden Daniels, who excelled at LSU pushing the ball down the field. He completed nearly 70% of his passes, traveling 15+ air yards or more, throwing 24 touchdowns to only one interception on passes of that length. 

Be sure to check out The Daily Fix (DFS Show) on Friday nights at 9pm on Fantasy In Frames social media channels such as our YouTube, X, and Facebook channels. Kevin Tompkins, Joe “The Brain” Matz, and I preview the entire DraftKings main slate each week and provide our favorite plays.

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Photo of Keith Flemming Keith Flemming Follow on X Send an email September 7, 2024
9 minutes read
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