2024 IDP Redraft Target: E.J. Speed
Fantasy football is sometimes pretty straightforward; you don’t always need to go deep diving into camp positional battles or scavenge teams’ depth charts. Sometimes, it’s the old adage of ‘the next man up,’ and the teams themselves tell you, “Hey, this is our guy.” The best example is the case of 2024 IDP Redraft Target E.J. Speed of Indianapolis Colts, who was declared the starting linebacker upon the release of Shaq Leonard. Also, if you’re starting to get interested in IDP, and offense is your strong suit, this is an excellent example of why, for fantasy purposes, linebackers are often called “the RB’s of IDP fantasy.”
After a knee injury holding him down most of the preseason, EJ Speed started at weakside linebacker in the opening game on September 12th and was so relentlessly on pace for a career year that the Colts felt confident enough to cut four-time All-pro and three-time Pro-bowl Shaq Leonard mid-season in favor of Speed.
Speed continued his record-setting pace and finished the year flourishing at run stuffing with a personal best of 100 tackles (76 solo, 24 assisted), and 46% of these tackles resulted in run stops. This was somewhat of a surprise from a player who amassed just 85 total tackles in his previous five professional seasons, not counting his appearances on special teams. His uptick in production from the 2022 season is almost double, so he basically came out of nowhere, a fifth-round pick who was mainly viewed as a special teamer.
EJ Speed has earned the coaching staff’s trust and is a proclaimed starter, and, with the departure of Shaq Leonard, he is an obvious redraft IDP target. He ended the year on a high note with four double-digit tackling performances starting from week 15 and had less than four tackles on only two occasions. Health is the main issue with EJ Speed and the whole Colts defensive line.
A fully healthy Zaire Franklin should help Speed’s positive outcome. Besides that, the Colts drafted an extremely dark horse in Laiatu Latu, who could prove not only to be a game changer if healthy but also THE IDP pick of the 2024 draft class, as many fantasy managers are reluctant to draft him at a high cost of his medical retirement at college.
Upon closer inspection of E.J. Speed’s formidable 2023 season, two details can prove to be worrisome for his future output. One aspect is the Colt’s schedule, where Speed excelled against some of the most impotent offenses, such as the Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, or a depleted Houston Texans in week 18. The other reason for concern is that Speed also had a career year of mistakes. He had over 20% missed tackles rate in no less than seven games, and several of these led to long-yardage TDs, accompanied by Franklin having a career-high and missed tackles and secondary also allowing splash players. If this trend continues, teams will throw the ball more against the Indianapolis Colts, limiting Speed’s best weapon. His overall missed tackles rate is at 15.1%, which is just on the borderline, so he needs to improve his consistency.
E.J. Speed, despite being a seemingly obvious IDP starter as a high-end LB3/low-end LB2, is being drafted after his teammates Franklin and Latu, which puts him in the sleeper category. This bodes well for your fantasy team, as he averaged 11.1/16.8 fantasy points per game (depending on the scoring), and if he improves on his precision and lowers his missed tackle rate, he can improve these numbers by 15-20%. On the other hand, if he has a similar success rate and replicates his performances, you have a player with a stable floor and a high ceiling to win you your weekly matchups.
From a pure IDP fantasy standpoint, by selecting E.J. Speed, you are drafting an every-down linebacker who still has a lot to prove and should be hungry for action. Speed is a vital member of a not-too-attractive defensive unit, which suggests he should be available in mid to later rounds of your drafts.
For good measure, in a recent draft in the Shoot the Gap listeners league, Zaire Franklin was picked at 1.04, and Fantasy In Frames‘ very own Jorge B Edwards picked E.J. Speed in the late fifth round.
Your fantasy team can surely do with a little Speed.
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