The Dynasty Bartender: Week 12 Happy Hour
Welcome in, everyone, for the Week 12 (2023) Happy Hour here at Fantasy In Frames. All me to serve you some Buy, Sell, and Hold candidates at this point in the season!
I’m Erika, The Dynasty Bartender, and today we will be looking at a few of those difficult dynasty decisions for the future. So come in, sit back with a cold one, and check out the players below.
Buy
Derrick Henry – Barrel-aged Bourbon
The older the aged bourbon, the sweeter the taste. Pour out one of these fine liquors, and you’re hit with the smokey edge and smooth finish, taking you right through the fantasy playoffs.
The fanciest of bourbons. It may seem old, but hey, the flavor is superb. Sounds a lot like an aging Derrick Henry to me.
Some may seem like a sell candidate at this stage in his career, but that’s what makes him the perfect buy-low player, in my opinion. Henry is in the final year of his contract with Tennessee, with no negotiations being made public. In January, he turns 30, and we know that age can be the demise of most running backs. After all, they can’t all be Frank Gore out there, playing for 15 seasons.
Henry is only averaging 4.6 yards a carry, which is the lowest for his career. He’s only eclipsed 100 rushing yards twice on the season, in week four against Cincinnati and week eight against Atlanta. His best fantasy day was against Cincinnati, where he was the RB6 on the week.
Henry is still a good running back, and it helps that there is a hot commodity behind him in the backfield. Fantasy managers always want the hot, new player, and Tyjae Spears has been explosive for Tennessee a few times this season. But Henry is still out snapping the rookie and seeing more playing time.
Tennessee’s upcoming schedule is perfect for Henry. With a rookie quarterback under center, the Titans may look to their veteran running back more and more and get the run game started.
Fantasy managers can buy Henry for a late first or early second-round pick. Not only are you getting a running back who could provide you with fantasy value in the playoffs this season, but also a player who may be on a new contract on a new team in a year.
Sip that aged bourbon nice and slow now, careful not to get too drunk on Henry’s possibilities.
Javonte Williams – Whiskey Sour
That first sip of a whiskey sour is tart on your tongue, but keep sipping, and the sour taste completely disappears, leaving the smooth burn to fire you up to finish it off.
Whiskey sours are so good, even for those who aren’t whiskey fans. Just like Javonte Williams, it may not be your favorite on your first sip, but keep going to have a perfect drink for the evening and beyond.
It’s hard to buy a young player because most fantasy managers want to hold on to them. But with Williams’ most recent productivity, managers might be ready to sell.
Williams is RB30 on the year so far while missing a game this season. And since coming back from his injury a year ago, he hasn’t exactly looked like the explosive player we hoped for him to be. He’s averaging only 3.9 yards per carry and has two touchdowns on the year, and those two came in the passing game.
He also has to contend with two capable running backs behind him, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin, both of whom are seeing snaps in the running game. Williams is seeing a 46% snap share with the other running backs, whereas in his rookie season, he saw 51% as well as the goal line touches.
What’s saving Williams is the resurgence of the Broncos offense. In the last two weeks, the Broncos have seen the endzone more than any other game. And Williams has been the recipient of those red zone touches. In his first seven games, he had seven total red zone touches. In the last two games, though, he has 18.
The offense looks as if they have found their footing, and the team is on a four-game winning streak against some top opponents, which makes it the perfect time to try to buy this young running back. Because of his age, fantasy managers can buy the rookie for a late first, or early second with some rebuilding pieces as well.
Sell
Austin Ekeler – Craft IPA
For when you want to be like the cool hipsters, and you order a random IPA from the bar. That first sip is bitter and tastes like grass and ruins your evening. Such a waste of a pick.
Some craft IPAs can hit the spot, but there are a few of those that taste gross and bitter and nothing like you imagined. Much like Austin Ekeler this season.
This Chargers team hasn’t looked like the Chargers of old. They currently have a losing record, sitting at 4-6 heading into Week 12, last place in the AFC West. Head coach Brandon Staley is also in the hot seat because of the record. With as much turmoil as there is for the Chargers, it could be the perfect time to sell Austin Ekeler.
Ekeler has had a disappointing season so far. He was drafted in most leagues as the RB2 in the first round, and he has not lived up to his potential. He’s currently RB26 in half PPR formats. That is right above Devon Achane on the season, and the rookie has played two fewer games than Ekeler.
He’s averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, his lowest average since coming into the league in 2017. He has missed four games due to injury as well, which hasn’t helped his production stats. But now that he is back from injury, he doesn’t look like the same Ekeler that he was before.
Ekeler is in a similar situation as Derrick Henry, and while I am high on buying Henry, I don’t see the same kind of upside with Ekeler. He will turn 29 years old before the start of next season, and his contract situation is also up in the air.
The style of offense that this team now runs also eats into Ekeler’s specialty as a pass-catching running back. Kellen Moore’s offense tends to target wide receivers more than the running back. So far on the season, Ekeler has 38 targets with 24 catches. Compare that to a year ago with his previous offensive coordinator; through seven games, Ekeler had 61 targets with 53 receptions. That kind of usage in the offense kills some of the fantasy points he would get if he was getting more targets.
Ekeler still has a lot of name value, though, and he is still a top-24 running back if he can stay healthy. If you’re in a rebuild, you could still sell him mid to late first or pick up a known commodity with similar value, like Davante Adams or Drake London.
Rashod Bateman – Tequila shot from the well
It’s like being 21 at the bar all over again. Money is tight, but you need something to get you through. Order a cheap shot, suffer through the burn, then be on your way.
If you ever have to even start Rashod Bateman this season, I’d suggest taking a tequila shot of the cheapest tequila you can find and black out any thought of him moving forward.
I will be honest: I truly dislike most of the Ravens wide receivers. It’s crazy that a top-10 quarterback like Lamar Jackson somehow can’t sustain his wide receivers to have any kind of relevance. Yet, here we are.
Bateman was drafted to be their go-to guy in this offense in 2021. He was a round 1 guy out of Minnesota. Since his time in the NFL, his fantasy output has been terrible. He finished as the WR73 and WR110 in his first two seasons. And the guy just can’t stay healthy, missing 16 games in his career in total.
This year is shaping up to be a bad one for Bateman. He is competing with superstar Odell Beckham Jr., who hasn’t looked like himself since being a part of the Giants organization but still looks better than Bateman, and rookie Zay Flowers, who seems to be Jackson’s go-to wide receiver in his short time on the team.
As of now, Bateman sits at WR83 on the year, and while his fellow teammates aren’t even close to the top 25, they are all still better fantasy options than he is. He has only four top-25 games in his career and not a single one in the top 10.
Bateman isn’t a true value, but definitely one that you can package with other players. Try to pair him with a couple of other underperforming wide receivers, such as Drake London or Jerry Jeudy, and get a trade for a couple of picks. Just make sure to take a strong shot of tequila and be prepared to sell him for low.
Hold
Marquise Brown – Vodka soda
The most basic of drinks, the serviceable kind that will get you through your evening, although it’s nothing special. But hey, it still can get you drunk.
Vodka sodas are delicious. But add a touch of grenadine to the mix, or a flavored vodka and you’ve got yourself a winning, drinkable drink for a night out. Hollywood just needs some spice in his life.
Most fantasy managers believed once Kyler Murray came back from his injury, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown would be an automatic start. But through the first two weeks, that hasn’t been the case.
Brown is the WR35 on the year-in-half half PPR scoring formats, and since Murray has been back for two games, Brown has finished as the WR63 and 75, respectively. In week 10, being Murray’s first game back from injury, Brown only saw a 13% target share with one catch on the day for 28 yards.
Maybe the college quarterback and wide receiver just need some time to get back on the same page as they were before. When the two were healthy and on the field together in 2022, their connection was fantastic. Through eight games, Hollywood caught 53 passes for 565 yards and three touchdowns. Both players were great fantasy commodities.
The connection hasn’t been there for the players in the first two games back. But now isn’t the time to buy, and I doubt you could get a lot of value from Hollywood if you try to sell. The Cardinals aren’t completely laying down on their season and are still fighting. They have a tough playoff push matchup-wise.
If you have better options for your team, sit Brown, but hold onto him to see if his connection with Murray goes back to what it once was.
Tee Higgins – Long Island Iced Tea
A drink that could be one of the greats, but it could also be your downfall. Drink these slowly and be patient while the liquor hits you. Otherwise, you’ll fall flat on your face when you stand up.
Sometimes, too much of a good thing can be your downfall. Those liquor-filled Long Island Iced Teas can knock you out if you keep them coming. Take a break though, and drink some water, just as you should hold onto Tee Higgins for a while longer.
Tee Higgins’ fantasy value has suffered this year due to bad quarterback play. At the beginning of the season, it looked as if Joe Burrow’s injury he suffered in the preseason might take him out for a few games. Burrow pushed through and wasn’t successful for fantasy, nor were his wide receivers.
Higgins also suffers from being the number two option in the receiving game. The wide receiver duo makes it difficult for defenses to know who to target, so one always ends up doing better than the other. So far in the 2023 season, the better player has been Ja’maar Chase.
On the season, Chase is WR7, while Higgins is down at WR64. Higgins has missed three games due to injury, but even then, he has only had two top-10 finishes this season, in weeks two and nine. In the other games he has played, he hasn’t even made it into the top 40. That’s a long way from being drafted in the second round of a lot of fantasy drafts.
But not everything with the Bengals is doom and gloom. Joe Burrow seems to be a bit healthier. And even though the Bengals are still losing games, they haven’t been completely decimated. Higgins’ health is a concern, but the wide receiver is only 24 years old and is paired with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If he comes back healthy sometime this season, the Bengals still have a chance to make it into a wildcard playoff spot. So, hold onto Higgins before selling him for pennies.