Welcome to our third Start & Sit article at Fantasy In Frames for the 2023 fantasy football season!
This week, I, Les, will be giving you my start and sit recommendations on offense and defense/special teams. I know you are as excited as I am to kick off Week 3 of the fantasy football season. Therefore, here are my Fantasy Football Starts & Sits for Week 3 (2023).
Start
1. Kirk Cousins (Chargers at Vikings)
- No-brainer. Kirk is QB1 in FPTS/G and Top 5 in all statistical QB categories in a home game against the Chargers who are PFF ranked 30th in Pass Coverage.
- Game is projected by far to be the highest scoring game in Week 3 at 51.5 O/U. And at basically even odds, this will be a shootout.
- Justin Herbert is a start for the same reasons.
2. Sam Howell (Buffalo at Washington)
- Sleeper pick. The Bills defense has been underwhelming overall but particularly in Pass Rush and in Coverage where they’re PFF-ranked 24th and 19th respectively. This was against Zach Wilson and Jimmy G.
- Howell looked much more confident at home against Denver with boosts in Yards, YPA, Completion % for two TDs and zero interceptions. +6.5 should have game script in his favor.
3. Dak Prescott (Dallas at Arizona)
- Daniel Jones looked like Prime Aaron Rodgers against the Cardinals last week finishing as QB1 and Sam Howell finished as QB11 in Week 1. Dak is better and is low risk-high reward if Arizona puts up a fight.
- Despite expectations of tanking, the Cardinals are actually playing teams close which should keep Dak in play longer than people think.
Sit
· Jordan Love (New Orleans at Green Bay)
- Love’s fantasy production is propped up by his 3 TDs/game but otherwise has been inefficient at 56% Pass Completion on only 26 Pass Attempts per game. This will not bode well against the PFF-ranked 5th best Defense in the Saints that has only allowed one touchdown this season.
- Saints and Packers are both in the bottom ½ of the league in Pass Play % meaning this game will be a grinder and one of the lowest O/U at 43.
· Ryan Tannehill (Tennessee at Cleveland)
- Goes from playing arguably the worst defenses in the league in the Chargers (PFF 31st) to third best in the Browns.
- Tannehill had a 47.1 Pass Completion % and 28.8 QBR on the road against New Orleans which is more likely than the 83.3% and 123.3 he did against LA.
· Mac Jones (New England at Jets)
- Projected to be lowest scoring game of the weekend by far at 37.5 O/U
- Jets 2nd ranked Pass Coverage and 5th ranked Defense overall caps any upside for Jones
Start
1. Travis Etienne (Houston at Jacksonville)
- Etienne is a prime bounce candidate against the Houston Texans who allowed Zack Moss to rush for 88yds and a touchdown including 7 missed tackles.
- Texans rank dead last in Run Defense according to PFF and are 9-point underdogs. Etienne is guaranteed 18+ carries at 5 YPC.
2. Raheem Mostert (Denver at Miami)
- Averaging 17.9 PPG with Salvin Ahmed and De’Von Achane with 7 carries total on the season. Ride the hot hand.
- The Broncos allow 22 PPG to opposing RBs including 27.9 to Brian Robinson Jr. of the Commanders last week.
3. Kyren Williams (Rams at Cincinnati)
- Proven dual-threat this season with four total touchdowns in rushing and passing game.
- Two top 10 finishes and facing a Bengals D giving the 10th most points in the league.
Sit
1. Dameon Pierce (Houston at Jacksonville)
- The offensive line has four starters on IR, leading to one of the worst units in the league and Pierce averaging 2.7 YPC.
- Jags have the #2 PFF-ranked Passing Offense and #5 Run Defense equals a nightmare game script.
2. Khalil Herbert (Chicago at Kansas City)
- Leads the team with 16 total carries, but Fields, Foreman, and Roschon Johnson all have five or more limiting his upside.
- Game script against the Chiefs will lead to fewer rushing attempts and more passing situations which Herbert will likely split or lose out on altogether being that Roschon is considered a better pass catcher
3. Rachaad White (Philadelphia at Tampa Bay)
- Nobody runs on the Eagles. Period. Rhamondre Stevenson had 2.1 YPA against them and Mattison’s performance led to the Vikings acquiring Cam Akers.
- White averaged 3.3 YPC against mid (Bears) and terrible (Vikings) Rush Defenses. He will have zero breathing room against the Eagles.
Start
1. Nico Collins (Houston at Jacksonville)
- Collins averages 10 Targets per game at 17.4 Yards per Reception. The volume and big play ability is there.
- CJ Stroud is throwing the ball over 45 times a game and the Texans will absolutely be playing catch-up against the Jags’s top-rated Pass Offense.
2. Amaari Cooper (Tennessee at Cleveland)
- 7 Receptions on 10 Targets last week in offense that will have to throw the ball more with Chubb on IR and the Titans stout Run D.
- The Titans are giving up 282 yards a game, the 5th highest in the league.
3. Josh Reynolds (Atlanta at Detroit)
- A solid start with potential boom upside if Amon-Ra St. Brown is out. St. Brown didn’t practice Wednesday and Reynolds was limited, so be mindful.
- Reynolds lines up nearly 50-50 Wide vs. Slot and averages 16.2 Y/REC. He’s making big plays and keeps the chains moving.
Sit
1. DeAndre Hopkins (Tennessee at Cleveland)
- At a paltry 9.5 Y/REC, your only hope for upside is double-digit receptions in PPR.
- PFF projects the WR/CB Matchup as poor for Hopkins against all defenders on this very aggressive Browns Defense.
2. George Pickens (Pittsburgh at Raiders)
- Kenny Pickett is the lowest rated QB this weekend considering Bryce Young might not play.
- Take away his 71yd TD on busted coverage and Pickens had 56 yards on 9 targets. As a Texans fan, I hope they trade for Davis Mills.
3. Garrett Wilson (Jets at New England)
- The Patriots actually have a good defense, they just had the misfortune of starting off against the Eagles and Dolphins. And the game is at Gillette? Hope Garrett has a great breakfast, because that’ll be the last time he eats until dinner.
- Like Pickens: great talent, bad QB. Take away his 68yd score last week and Wilson had 15 yds on 7 targets. Man, what could’ve been. Rest-up Rodgers.
Start
1. Sam LaPorta (Atlanta at Detroit)
- LaPorta’s 5.5 Targets a game is ready up there with other league leaders not named Kelce or Hockenson.
- Injuries to Montgomery, St. Brown, and Josh Reynolds may lead to an increase in volume.
2. Jake Ferguson (Dallas at Arizona)
- Ferguson is touchdown-dependent but also leads the league in red zone targets with 7 (nearly 4 a game!) All it takes is one for him to finish Top 10.
- Ferguson’s matchup against key defender LB Kris Barnes is PFF-rated 5th best in addition to Arizona as a unit being one of the worst defenders of the TE position.
3. Tyler Higbee (Rams at Cincinnati)
- On the field for 92% of the Ram’s snaps, Higbee will have plenty of opportunities to against the Bengals who gave up 45 and a TD to Mark Andrews last week.
- Only averaged 4 Y/Rec vs the brutal Niners, but a whopping 16.3 against the Seahawks who are closer in defensive talent to the Bengals.
Sit
1. Juwan Johnson (vs. Green Bay)
- Potentially a Start if Foster Moreau is out, but c’mon, if Johnson’s outlook depends on Moreau’s status, I’m out.
- Green Bay’s Top 10 Pass Defense + slow game script spells low ceiling and floor for Juwan.
2. Kyle Pitts (@ DET)
- Wild stat: Of the 8 Targets Pitts has in two games, only FOUR of them were catchable. I told myself that if I lose my league because I didn’t draft Kyle Pitts, I can live with it. Well at least I got one thing right.
- Ridder is only throwing the ball 25x a game, and not accurately. His 68% Comp Percentage doesn’t seem bad, until you realize the mere 14 passes he threw 10+yds only hit at 50%. Zero upside for Pitts.
3. Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo at Washington)
- Kincaid’s targets and usage are actually on par with viable TE options on other teams, they’re just not amounting too much because he’s more of a safety valve when the big plays from Allen don’t materialize. He and Dawson Knox have some of the lowest Y/REC in the league
- Speaking of Knox, he has more red zone targets and touchdowns (1) than Kincaid meaning the inevitable takeover will have to wait until later in the season.
Start
1. Cleveland Browns (vs. Tennessee)
- Ryan Tannehill has thrown 3 Interceptions and been sacked 8x in the past ten days. That’s wild.
- Tannehill’s turnovers and a low-scoring affair at 39.5 O/U, the Browns are great floor play with tremendous upside.
2. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Indianapolis)
- Gunslinger Gardner Minshew is likely to start and is a sack and turnover machine when under pressure, something the Ravens excel at.
- Even if Richardson starts, the Colts would almost certainly limit his rushing attempts which is his bread and butter. Ravens are the best DST the rookie has faced, and they will put that 56.2 PFF Pass grade to the test.
3. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Carolina)
- Contrarian pick. Seahawks haven’t been pretty bad in Pass Rush and Coverage, but this shouldn’t be an issue against Bryce Young or Andy Dalton.
- Seattle’s Run D and a banged-up Miles Sanders further limits Carolina’s potential.
Sit
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Raiders)
- Love the Steelers Defense as a unit, but their inept Offense will keep them on the field and give good field position.
- The Raiders are quietly one of the 11th PFF-rated offense in the league. Davante Adams healthy and Jakobi is expected back. Points will be scored.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Chicago)
- Contrarian pick. Drafted as a Top 10 DST, the Chiefs are currently ranked 26th and don’t excel in any one area. Hell, they’re 1 of 5 teams to not have an Interception on the year.
- Did we all get it wrong on Justin Fields? Are we dropping him and Joe Burrow after two games? Not likely. Fields’ has faced to two Top 10 Pass Rush Rushes but will breakout against the middling Chiefs who are even worse in pass coverage.
3. NY Jets (vs. Patriots)
- Combined because their both obvious picks. Both teams are stout defensive units playing against weak QBs. Although the Jets are a better unit, Patriots will have more turnovers because of Zach Wilson.
- Lowest scoring game on the docket for a reason. Jets have one of lowest Pass Play Percentages in the league and the Patriots will follow suit being that they’re not playing the Eagles or Dolphins.
