Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High Week 9
Welcome to Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High for Week 9!
This week we will discuss buy-low/sell-high recommendations for players keeping in mind this could also be adds/drops depending on your specific roster situation. Fantasy In Frames provides informed decisions on the not-so-obvious picks by concentrating on RB/WRs outside Consensus Top 24 and QB/TEs outside Consensus Top 10.
Buy-Low
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR), Cleveland Browns
Donovan Peoples-Jones going WAY 🆙 and over 😳
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 1, 2022
(via @browns)pic.twitter.com/wRUBBOUCvT
There isn’t another WR outside Consensus Top 24 I am more excited about than Donovan People-Jones. Yes, Deshaun Watson’s Week 13 return is around the corner but let’s look at DPJ’s production in his absence. Since Week 5, Peoples-Jones has averaged 8.7 FPTS/G, including 70+ Yds/G in 3 of 4. Bear with me and consider Weeks 2-3 outliers where he had a combined four Targets and 1.5 total Fantasy Points. Through this lens, People-Jones has averaged seven Tgts/G and 68 Yds/G for 8.9 FPTS/G. What adds to this excitement is DPJ’s Yards per Reception (Yds/Rec). Again, leaving out Weeks 2-3, People-Jones is averaging 14.55 Yds/Rec on the season with Jacoby Brissett. Ladies and Gentlemen, you are looking at Will Fuller 2.0. The same potential exists for Amari Cooper (96% rostered), but Peoples-Jones is only 17% rostered during the Browns’ bye week. Grab him now before the waiver wire locks on Sunday.
Jakobi Meyers (WR), New England Patriots
Fun fact… Jakobi Meyers has scored at least eight Fantasy Points (Half-PPR) in every game he’s been active this season. Except for Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp, no other WR in Total Fantasy Points has done the same. This means that his floor is reliable and has increased value during the bye weeks. Meyers is a hidden gem because he possesses a legitimate upside to complement his high floor. From Weeks 5-8, Meyers averaged 13.9 FPTS/G, including three touchdowns while catching passes from Mac Jones and backup Bailey Zappe. Meyers also leads all WRs in Reception%, grabbing 88% of his targets, meaning he’s highly efficient with his opportunities. Being only 83% rostered, there’s still a chance to pick him up or receive him as a sneaky addition in a 2-for-1 trade. I recommend grabbing Meyers, but keep one thing in mind. The semifinals and finals of the Fantasy Football Playoffs (Wks 16-17) are home games for the Patriots, so consider dealing him before your league’s trade deadline.
Sell-High
Dameon Pierce (RB), Houston Texans
“Mills hands off to Dameon Pierce”
— Justin (@Justin_14P) November 4, 2022
pic.twitter.com/0Xmj36ViEz
For context, this was written after Thursday Night Football’s Texans vs. Eagles, where Pierce rushed for 139 yds on 5.1 yds per carry. It is important to note that as impressive as this performance was, it was done on 27 rushing attempts as the Texans were without their two top WRs, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins. The Eagles were also without rookie DL Jordan Davis, one of their primary run-stoppers. Let’s be clear, Dameon Pierce has been sensational and will probably win Offensive Rookie of the Year, playing for arguably the worst team in the league. And therein lies the issue. At what point do the Texans throttle him down and conserve for next season? As a rookie, Pierce is 4th in the league in Rushing Attempts (148), trailing only Pro-Bowl-caliber veterans Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Nick Chubb. He is the only rookie (Etienne, 2nd yr) in the Top 20 in both Snaps and Attempts. This is high usage for any rookie, let alone on a team going nowhere. The Texans are now 1-6-1 after their loss to the Eagles. 6 of their final 8 games (Fantasy Football season) are against teams with records of .500 or better. Their Week 13 game against the Browns (3-5) is the return of Deshaun Watson, and although emotions will be high on both sides, the Texans are expected to lose. In short, the Texans have a legit probability of losing the rest of their games and may decide to rest their future franchise player.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR), San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk has been spectacular since Week 5 as Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) 4th-ranked WR, trailing only Stefon Diggs, Tyreke Hill, and Justin Jefferson. He’s Top 10 in Targets (31), Receptions (24), Yards (304), and 3rd in Touchdowns with three. As great as Aiyuk has been, regression is on the horizon for several reasons. Target hog Christian McCaffrey has had an immediate and resounding impact garnering 27 touches for 36 Fantasy Points in his 2nd start with the Niners. Deebo Samuel, another Sell-High candidate with CMC’s arrival, is injured but commands double-digit targets when he’s active. And then there’s Kittle, who’s also starting to pick up his production. In short, Aiyuk is splitting target-share with three Pro-bowlers, and the 8 TGTs/G he’s enjoyed the past few weeks are unsustainable. I still like him as Jimmy G’s primary vertical threat, but sell him now at peak value.