Fantasy Football Upside in Week 4 (2022)
Welcome to our team’s weekly article on Fantasy Football Upside in player performance for the upcoming week!
Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Fantasy Football Upside in Week 4!
Quarterback
Marcus Mariota
Follow @JoeEMatzMarcus Mariota didn’t quite break into the top 12 scorers last week, but with a solid 15th finish among quarterbacks, he at least proved my picks aren’t cursed (I was concerned after Trevor Lawrence’s one lousy game in week one and Trey Lance’s broken ankle in week two). With that threat removed, I was going to follow the same path as the last two weeks and take the quarterback facing the hapless Seahawks defense, Jared Goff. With Amon-Ra St. Brown ruled out, though, I decided to look elsewhere. Matt Ryan has some intrigue as a surprise pick against the struggling Titans’ secondary, but that feels more like a go all-in on Michael Pittman play with what we’ve seen from Ryan thus far. Instead, I’m going to do what I wish I’d done with Trevor Lawrence back in week two and double down on the previous week’s selection, Marcus Mariota.
Atlanta is hardly a pass-happy offense, yet Mariota has managed to be the 13th-ranked QB through three games. That’s primarily thanks to two things. First, the Falcons may not throw often, but they throw deep when they do. Mariota is third in air yards per attempt and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. Despite that aggressiveness, he’s only thrown three interceptable passes all year, per PlayerProfiler, and it’s been bad luck that all three have been picked (In contrast, Jameis Winston has thrown five picks on 11 interceptable passes). The second key to Mariota’s fantasy success is his league-leading, among quarterbacks, eight red zone carries that have resulted in two scores. With an aggressive passing game and repeated scoring opportunities on the ground, there’s a good chance Mariota can finish as a QB-1 for a second time this season (He’s also yet to finish worse than 18th).
It helps that Cleveland looks to be an advantageous matchup. They’re 20th in fantasy points allowed and 21st in pass defense DVOA despite facing Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, and Mitchell Trubisky to start the year. Of particular note for Mariota, they’re 20th in DVOA against deep passes, and they’ve already permitted two running scores by QBs. Myles Garrett is also questionable after an automobile accident earlier this week. Add in the Browns’ offense looking like a finely tuned machine and the Falcons’ defense being as sketchy as everyone predicted, and Mariota may set a new high in pass attempts during his Falcons tenure.
This game is tied for the second highest over/under of the weekend, and Mariota figures to be a big part of that. If you’re looking for an under-the-radar QB Mariota is your guy.
Ryan Tannehill
Follow @KeithFlemmingTennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill to TE Geoff Swaim for six 🤩 pic.twitter.com/6ZYzSR6lhf
— Sideline the Agenda (@SidelineAgenda) September 25, 2022
I don’t love my options for Week 4 outside the Top 12. On The Daily Fix Podcast, I talked about spending at QB in DFS this week (make sure to download and listen to our most recent episode before setting your lineups on Sunday). However, there is one player that I will sprinkle into some lineups. He could be available if you are weak at QB and need a win this week. That man is Ryan Tannehill.
We know the Titans want to run the ball, but the Colts’ run D has been fantastic vs it this year and awful in coverage. The Colts’ D is only surrendering 77 ypg on the ground through 3 games (3rd fewest in NFL), while their pass defenses give up big passing plays regularly. The Colts have bottled up some good running backs. None of the following running backs have averaged more than 3.0 ypc versus them: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerrick McKinnon, James Robinson, Travis Etienne, and Dameon Pierce.
While eight different wide receivers have a reception of 20 yards or more against this secondary, right as the Titans have started giving significant snaps to their talented rookie receiver Treylon Burks. Burks saw over 65%% in Week 3, after being under 40 % for Week 1 and under 50% for Week 2. Burks excels as chunk plays, and it’s why I love the stack of Tannehill with Burks for your DFS lineups. I don’t love the options this week of QBs outside the Top 12, but do feel confident Tannehill should throw multiple touchdowns and see plenty of opportunities due to the difficulty running versus this Colts D.
Running Back
Rhamandre Stevenson
Follow @FFChalupaBatmanRhamondre Stevenson 16 yard run! #Patriots pic.twitter.com/2GAdZlgaTu
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) September 25, 2022
Rhamondre Stevenson is the RB2 on the New England Patriots behind Damien Harris. How does he have an upside? He may be listed as the backup running back, but had starter utilization in Week 3. Per PFF, he had 62% of the snaps and a 54% rushing share. When you dig deeper he had 60% of the short yardage snaps, 60% of the long-down-distance snaps, and 100% of the two-minute snaps. All of that is encouraging utilization for more high-value touches. Since Ty Montgomery went on IR, Stevenson has more targets too. In Week 3, he had a 16% target share!
Those stats have trended in the right direction for the last two weeks. Stevenson finally had a breakout performance with 18.1 half-PPR fantasy points from 101 total yards and one touchdown from 17 total opportunities. The starting quarterback, Mac Jones, has an ankle injury and is expected to miss several weeks. In Week 4, the Patriots play against the Green Bay Packers, which is considered a positive matchup for running backs. The Patriots would like to run the ball more to control the clock, which benefits Stevenson. Brian Hoyer is not a good quarterback, and he may need to dump the ball off to the running back more often, which is good for Stevenson. According to FantasyPros ECR, Rhamondre Stevenson is ranked as the RB29. He should be in your flex spot for Week 4, or your RB2 spot if you are dealing with running back injuries.
Wide Receiver
Greg Dortch
Follow @bill_mustafaGREG DORTCH SEAZON pic.twitter.com/4keOKyYOKS
— PHNX Cardinals (@PHNX_Cardinals) September 25, 2022
Greg Dortch being a fantasy football-relevant WR isn’t something many ‘analysts’ had on their bingo card in the off-season, but through the first three weeks, it’s certainly looking like Dortch may have himself a breakout year in his fourth season. The former Wake Forest Deamon Deacon has had nine or more targets in two of three games so far in the ’22 season and caught nine of his ten targets for 80 yards in Arizona’s week 3 loss to the Rams. A.J. Green has already been ruled OUT. Fellow receivers Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown & Rondale Moore were both limited at practice on Friday and listed as ‘questionable’ for Sunday. There’s a chance Dortch runs as the WR1 for Arizona in week 4.
Joshua Palmer
Follow @bill_mustafaSecond-year receiver Joshua Palmer impressed in the loss to Jacksonville in week 3, as he posted the most yards and receptions of his young career, catching six of his nine targets for 99 yards. The connection with Justin Herbert could be critical this week with Keenan Allen being ruled OUT for a third straight game. The Chargers are yet to s establish the run successfully and will live and die on the arm (and health) of Justin Herbert. Allen’s injury means that the Texans’ secondary will first and foremost want to take away Mike Williams from the Chargers’ passing attack. With Williams likely to see the most attention from the defense, Palmer could be in for another impressive performance.
Tight End
David Njoku
Follow @JKlonowskiNFLIt’s happening, everybody stay calm
The Njoku breakout campaign has been predicted by fantasy analysts since time began. After a quiet first two weeks, the former first-round pick burst back onto the scene with a bang in week three.
His blockbuster performance demonstrated why many cited him as a potential sleeper coming into this season, given the obvious opportunities available. You can read more about that by clicking here. He recorded a career-high nine receptions from ten targets against the Steelers, amassing a total 98 receiving yards and a touchdown. This represented a staggering 32% of the team’s targets. It also signified only the third time in his career in which he had seen double-digit targets, which last happened back in 2018. Yet, given the lack of weapons outside of Amari Cooper in Cleveland, it should not be a surprise to see him being heavily involved going forwards this season.
His underlying usage for the Browns has been promising. While the targets may not have been as consistent as we would have liked, Njoku has remained on the field for an average of 90% of snaps per game this season per FantasyPros. It is also not just the usage that fantasy managers should pay attention to, but also what Njoku can do with the ball in his hands. Through three games, Njoku ranks fourth in yards after catch amongst tight ends, according to PFF.
Njoku and the Cleveland Browns now have another enticing matchup, which he should be able to take advantage of. On Sunday, the Browns travel to Atlanta to face a Falcons team who have allowed the second-most points to tight ends over the first three weeks of the season in half-PPR scoring, according to FantasyData. The more you examine Atlanta’s underlying defensive numbers, the better it looks. So far this year, the Falcons have allowed 814 receiving yards, the sixth-most in the NFL after three weeks, and once again find themselves in the bottom ten in defensive pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. With Jacoby Brissett playing better than expected, the prospects look promising for Njoku once again. Another huge performance may be on the cards.
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Thanks for reading our Fantasy Football Upside in Week 4 article.
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Now go out there and crush your matchups this week!
