Welcome to Fantasy Football FYI for Week 3!
Reflecting on the 1st two weeks of the season, the main thing that stands out is the uncharacteristic play of mid-tier QBs outside of the consensus top 10 during drafts. Half of the current top 10 leaders in total yards after Week 2 were not consensus top 10 QBs in this year’s draft.
In FYI, we delve deeper into the numbers to provide outside-the-box roster recommendations weeks ahead of your competitors. Here are this week’s Add/Drops, keeping in mind that Adds can also be buy-low or holds, and Drops can be sell-high, given your roster situation. With that, let’s provide you with Fantasy Football FYI for Week 3.
Adds
Tom Brady, Tampa Buccaneers (ECR QB14)
TOM BRADY WHAT A PASS 🎯
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 18, 2022
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/5G6H3v0dro
Tom has started the season with injuries to critical playmakers, including Chirs Godwin, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage, not to mention losing Mike Evans to an ejection for fighting. Yet through two weeks, he is in 1st in Big Time Throw percentage (BTT%), which measures passes with excellent ball location and timing. Brady is also top five in lowest Turnover-Worthy Plays (TWP%), which are passes with a high chance of being intercepted or the QB fumbling. He also ranks #3 in ADoT. This means Brady is still taking big shots downfield without turnovers even without access to his best weapons. Weeks 1-2 were also against two top Defenses in Dallas and New Orleans. I expect Brady to be a sit candidate until the WR injuries subside, but he represents a long-term buy-low opportunity.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ECR QB19)
One thing I learned Sunday…Trevor Lawrence owns the Colts.
— Brad Starks (@RotoLounge) September 21, 2022
pic.twitter.com/Q7qESPgtVn
The 2nd year QB was picked by many as a breakout candidate but currently trails his mid-tier QBs counterparts (Tua, Wentz) in TDs and Yards. However, Lawrence shows potential in a few other statistical categories. Lawrence ranks top ½ in Pass Attempts (72), Yards (510), and 11th in Completion % (68.1) despite being ranked Consensus QB19. He is also Top 10 in ADoT (8.7) and Adjusted Completion % (78.8), higher than Wentz and Tua. One of the issues impacting Lawrence’s output compared to Wentz and Tua is Redzone (RZ) Efficiency. FantasyPros.com ranks Trevor as Awful, meaning that he converted RZ opportunities less than the league average while they both scored “Great.” Additionally, Lawrence’s rushing upside (334yds on 73 att in 2021) has yet to be utilized, creating more opportunity.
At a minimum, he is currently a highly capable fill-in for bye weeks, injuries, or bad matchups for 2nd tier QBs. But he has the potential to be a league-winner if his efficiency increases, especially given his schedule of the Jets (Wk 16) and Texans (Wk 17) during the fantasy playoff.
Drop
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts (ECR QB23)
Matty Ice currently has a league-worst NFL Passer Rating of 63.9, and it’s easy to see why. Ryan ranked dead last in BTT% (1.2) of QBs with a minimum of 50 dropbacks, yet rated 3rd in TWP% (6.5) behind Derek Carr and Justin Fields. This means Ryan is over 5x more likely to turn the ball over than make a big play. What’s concerning is Ryan’s inability to extend plays by scrambling, allowing him to avoid pressure and make big plays. Ryan has faced 26 pressure situations in just two games, resulting in 7 sacks and four interceptions.
To put this in perspective, Jalen Hurts also faced 26 pressure situations yet has only been sacked three times and thrown one interception. His primary recourse in pressured situations is the check-down (3rd overall in 2021) which is typically a low-risk, low-reward play. Ryan’s uninspiring ADoT of 8.3 and 60% pass completion rate make him an easy choice cut for players with more upside. Keep in mind this was against the Texans and Jaguars. Colts face much more formidable Pass Defenses outside the AFC South this year.
Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders (ECR QB12)
Carson Wentz’s 2022 stats are impressive: Attempts (3rd), Completions (4th), Yards (2nd), Yards per Attempt (7th), and Touchdowns (4th). Despite this start, I consider him a sell-high due to the inevitable negative regression of this pace and increase in turnovers, especially in pressure situations. Through two weeks, Wentz is on pace for 696 passing attempts. Carson’s career average before this season is 502, with 2021 and 2020 at 516 and 437, respectively. His Completion % of 65.5 is nearly 3% higher than his career average and the highest since 2018. Carson’s volume and efficiency are sustainable at this level. The other issue with Wentz is the inevitable increase in turnovers, especially under pressure.
A deeper look into the metrics will show that it’s already happening. Week 1, Carson sported a BTT% of 6.4 with a moderate TWP% of 3.8. However, in Week 2, he only managed a BTT% of 2.1 and TWP% of 5.5. He was also sacked five times on a 23.8% Pressure to Sack% (P2%) vs. once on an 11.1% P2S% the week prior. Defensive Coordinators know Wentz’s knack for turnovers under pressure and are likely to be more aggressive going forward. The Commanders’ schedule gets much more challenging in the future with the Eagles and Cowboys up next, not to mention the 49ers and Browns in the Fantasy Playoffs. Selling high to a league mate who lost Trey Lance, gambled on Justin Fields, or has a sputtering low-end QB1 like Brady or Russell Wilson might be the move.
Thanks for reading our first Fantasy Football FYI for Week 3 article!
Now go and make some more informed decisions in your fantasy football leagues!
