2022 Fantasy Football Preview: AFC North
Welcome to our next Fantasy Football Divisional Preview for the 2022 NFL Season!
While loaded with information from both sides of the ball, all of our writers here at Fantasy In Frames made sure to make all of our analyses as digestible as possible so that you can get the detailed information you NEED to go out there and dominate your fantasy football drafts. Let’s keep things going with our 2022 Fantasy Football Preview of the AFC North!
Quarterback Summary
Follow @JoeEMatzA year from now, the AFC North could be nipping at the heels of the AFC West for the best slate of fantasy quarterbacks. However, this year, it’s a clear case of haves and have-nots. Two teams have quarterbacks who should challenge to be in the top five, while the other two will likely spend most of the season in the awkward transition stage from one QB era to the next.
Lamar Jackson
Counting only games he started and finished, here are Lamar Jackson’s points per game average and where that ranked among QBs (minimum seven starts) in his four years in the league:
2018 – 18.59 (13th)
2019 – 28.11 (1st)
2020 – 22.79 (8th)
2021 – 22.89 (3rd)
There are three key takeaways from this.
The first is that even as a rookie, when Baltimore trusted his passing so little that he never threw more than 25 passes in a game and tossed only five touchdowns in seven starts, Jackson was a borderline fantasy starter because he’s the best running quarterback in the history of the NFL. Across 49 starts (this time including his final start from last year, where he was knocked out on the first play of the second quarter), he’s averaged 72.1 yards on the ground. That’s more than Michael Vick or Randall Cunningham averaged in any single season and more than all but six current running backs. With the Ravens running backs no longer a MASH unit, and the offensive line healthier/revamped, Jackson’s running should be as potent as ever.
The second is… OH MY GOD, 28.11 POINTS?! That’s over two more points than any other QB in the last ten years, and the same goes for all other players in half-PPR formats. His ceiling is higher than anyone we’ve seen at any position, and he did that while only throwing 401 passes. Can he hit that again? Probably not, there’s a reason Wilt Chamberlain only scored 100 points one time, even when you’re great repeating historic feats is a tall task, but merely approaching it would likely make Jackson fantasy’s top QB again.
Finally, the consistency. In the last decade, no other QB has broken 22 points per game in three consecutive seasons (Allen, Herbert, & Murray will seek to join him this season). He’s done it with incredible efficiency in 2019 & incredible volume in 2021 (46.3 combined passes & runs per game last season). That gives me faith that whatever happens this year, Jackson will produce like a high-end QB-1.
Joe Burrow
I went all in on the Bengals’ passing offense last year. Targeting Burrow, Chase, and Higgins in all of my drafts. With the receivers that worked out great, Burrow was more of a mixed bag for much of the season. Looking at why gives good reason to buy into Burrow, and his receivers, again this year.
Through Burrow’s eleven starts as a rookie, the Bengals had the fourth-highest game-neutral pass rate. Which is to say, when the game situation didn’t dictate the play call, Cincinnati was passing a lot. In fact, Burrow was leading the league in pass attempts at over 40 a game. Last year, with Burrow coming off an ACL and MCL tear and playing behind a porous offensive line, Zac Taylor was understandably cautious with his franchise QB. The Bengals fell to 16th in neutral pass rate through the first 12 weeks of the season. Then December hit, Burrow was healthy with the team entering must-win mode, and from there through the Super Bowl, the Bengals jumped up to 6th in pass rate (see below) with Burrow throwing an extra five passes a game. Burrow’s now another year removed from his injury, and the Bengals have upgraded three-fifths of their offensive line, get ready for some fireworks!
Another example of Burrow feeling more confident in his surgically repaired knee was his scrambling. He ran for more yards in the last seven games of the season, including playoffs than in the first thirteen. In general, it’s smart to target players in the second year after a major knee injury.
That said, Burrow is currently the sixth quarterback off the board on most sites which leaves him with limited upside. Unless he truly goes off in the range of 40 touchdowns and 5,000 yards, it’s going to be hard for him to surpass the quarterbacks going ahead of him who provide a lot more points on the ground. He’s clearly behind the Allen, Herbert, Jackson, and Mahomes tier, and I have Hurts and Murray above him. If he falls, though, as he is in ESPN leagues where he’s currently going as QB-10, grab him quick.
Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett
Either of these QBs has a decent shot at surpassing Ben Roethlisberger, who was QB-21 last year while doubling as PFF’s worst graded quarterback, but I’d give Trubisky better odds of being a useful bye week quarterback or second quarterback in two-QB leagues.
Trubisky finished 11th in per game scoring in 2018, and 16th in 2020 (He was awful in 2019). Over his two fantasy-relevant seasons, he threw twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and, in starts, he’s averaged over 20 yards on the ground for his career. With Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth to throw to, there’s hope he could be useful once again.
Of course, being a decent player in fantasy and real life is not the same. In 2020, Trubisky was outside the top 20 in clean pocket completion percentage and top 30 in deep ball completion percentage and PFF grade. There’s a reason he’s not starting in Chicago anymore, and that’s because he’s not good. If that leads to losses piling up, Trubisky won’t be the starter for long.
That leads to Pickett, who’s only behind his much-hyped teammate George Pickens in offensive rookie of the year odds after two impressive preseason performances. The Steelers are a well-run team, so their feeling confident enough in Pickett to take him in the first round is a good long-term sign, but I’m skeptical of him this year.
Don’t overreact to his preseason play. Last year Ja’Marr Chase’s problems with drops were the talk of the preseason, Daniel Jones went five for five with a score in his first preseason appearance, and the 0-16 Lions went undefeated in games that didn’t matter. Don’t get me wrong, better to play well than play poorly but don’t confuse the last two weeks with real games.
Also, last year’s “generational” quarterback class should be a reminder not to let your imagination run wild with a rookie QB. Mac Jones was the best of them in fantasy, and his 14 points per game were worse than, you guessed it, Ben Roethlisberger. Not inspiring! Yes, Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray have recently excelled as rookies, but those two, like previous rookie phenoms Cam Newton and Robert Griffin, had A+ physical talent. Pickett’s fine, but he’s not in those guys’ league, and the Steelers’ offensive line isn’t going to help.
Trubisky has previous, moderate, fantasy success and will *likely* be the week one starter of a team that should be decent, so if you’re in a two-QB league, he should be of greater interest, but I wouldn’t touch either of them. With a 31st (Pickett) and 34th (Trubisky) ADP, most people seem to agree.
Jacoby Brissett/Deshaun Watson
Let’s get this out of the way – I have no clue why anyone would consider drafting Deshaun Watson. I can’t imagine wanting to root for someone the NFL, and at least 25 women, have found to be a sexual predator and who has demonstrated no remorse for his actions. Your mileage may vary, even then, though, why would you draft someone who won’t be eligible for 86% of the fantasy regular season? Most leagues won’t allow you to keep a suspended player on IR, so it’s a waste of a roster spot in hopes of a guy who hasn’t played in real action for over a year and a half not skipping a beat.
As for Brissett, we’ve seen him in this situation before. The 2017 and 2019 Colts were run-heavy teams with strong offensive lines. Brissett averaged 12.9 and 14.9 points and threw for 6.6 YPA in both seasons. In Baker Mayfield’s best season, 2020, the Browns were 21st in neutral passing. Brissett will not be asked to do much, and when he is, it’s unlikely to result in fantasy starter production. There’s no value here.
Brissett is going behind both Steelers’ quarterbacks, but Deshaun has gone up to quarterback #22. Again, morality aside (if you so choose), he’s not playing for nearly the entire fantasy regular season! He’s going around the same time as Jameis Winston and Mac Jones! There’s no justification for this. If you have interest in Watson, consider picking him up in November, drafting him is a fool’s errand.
Best Value at the Quarterback Position
Follow @JKlonowskiNFLLamar Jackson
The epitome of a Konami-code quarterback – Lamar Jackson, has been a cheat code for fantasy managers ever since he took the field. Despite an injury-plagued season, the former MVP finished as the QB7 in fantasy points per game last year in FanDuel scoring, according to FantasyData. His rushing abilities once again were pivotal, rushing at least seven times in each of his 11 full games. He accumulated at least 50 rushing yards in nine of those 11 games. In total, Jackson rushed 133 times for 767 yards across his 12 games, scoring just two rushing touchdowns – only 17 yards behind the league leader Hurts, despite playing three fewer games.
The Ravens were decimated by injuries in 2021, losing key pieces such as JK Dobbins and Ronnie Stanley. Jackson’s numbers dropped, as a result, throwing just 16 passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions. With players returning and reinforcements along the offensive line, a return toward Jackson’s 2019 and 2020 numbers should be forthcoming. And do not fear the perceived lack of weapons. Despite losing Hollywood Brown in the off-season, second-year receiver Rashod Bateman will provide a more than adequate replacement.
At QB4, according to FantasyPros ECR, Jackson provides enormous upside at the QB position marginally after the likes of Josh Allen are taken. Jackson has been a consistent fantasy producer, both with his arm and his legs, in recent years, and continued elite production looks to be on the cards once again. He remains the best value at QB in the AFC North.
Running Back Summary
Follow @Charli3TheThirdNajee Harris
The Steelers rookie was the #3 running back in PPR formats last season. He was also one of three running backs to have at least 80% of 332 rushing attempts, the other two were Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor. Clearly, the workload is there, and on top of that, Harris has the highest PFF fumble grade among all running backs during the 2021 regular season. Having the best ball security in the league and one of the biggest workloads in the league should result in league-winning play. Najee Harris is a no-brainer.
Joe Mixon
As I mentioned before, Joe Mixon’s workload is on par with that of Najee Harris. The only difference is that the Bengals have a lot more talented weapons than the Steelers do. However, Mixon’s pass-catching ability should make him a very viable option for fantasy football this year. Among running backs with at least 50% of 332 rushing attempts, Mixon ranked top ten in both receptions and receiving yards. Along with the upgrades to the offensive line, Joe Mixon should be a great pick for fantasy managers in the second round.
Nick Chubb
One of the best pure runners in the NFL, Nick Chubb has been that guy for the Browns. With the controversy at QB and the lack of receiving options besides Amari Cooper, Cleveland may need to rely on the run a lot more this year. I do think that Chubb’s lack of receiving skills will keep him out of the top ten RBs for half and full PPR leagues. He still can be a high-end RB2 for your fantasy lineup. Chubb had the highest yards per attempt among running backs with at least 50% of 332 rushing attempts and had top ten PFF grades in both offense and rushing.
JK Dobbins
Despite missing all of last season, Dobbins had an impressive 2020 campaign. Among running backs who had at least 20% 378 rushing attempts, Dobbins ranked first in yards per attempt, 11th in PFF rushing grade, 7th in yards after contact per attempt, and 2nd in breakaway percentage. It is yet to be seen if the injury will hinder any of Dobbins’ production this season, but he is somewhat of an interesting pick in the 5th round.
Kareem Hunt
While he is the last-ranked RB in this division, I still think Hunt is a great value this year in fantasy. Among RBs with at least 20% of 332 rushing attempts last season, Hunt ranked in the top ten for yards per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and elusiveness rating. He also ranked 12th for PFF fumble grade. With the news of his trade request, he could be someone to be wary about. Hunt is a great flex play if he stays on the Browns, but if he were traded, depending on the destination, he could catapult to RB2 or even RB1 status.
Best Value at the Running Back Position
Follow @FFTylerHeilValue can be challenging to find in a division that remarkably has 15% of the top 33 running backs in it, according to FantasyPros Half-PPR ADP. Fortunately for us, only 3 of these backs are being drafted at or near their ceiling, still leaving value to be found. I wanted to get fancy and put the textbook definition of value here. However, the textbook definition does not help support my narrative, so you don’t get to read it. Let’s review all 5 relevant running backs in this division and parse out whose end-of-season value will exceed their current market value.
– Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: RB6, 8 Overall
– Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals: RB7, 10 Overall
– Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: RB9, 15 Overall
– J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens: RB27, 61 Overall
– Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns: RB33, 84 Overall
When drafted as the overall RB6 behind a putrid offensive line like Najee Harris is, value is difficult to see. As a team, the Steelers averaged 3.8 YPC (yards per carry) last year, finishing 29th in the NFL. Najee had the 38th best YPC in the NFL among running backs who totaled 100 or more carries. Najee attained a large portion of his value from the 94 targets Big Ben heaped upon him. Big Ben is now gone, automatically cutting down his targets a bit, the Steelers added more pass catchers through the draft and hardly addressed the offensive line in any consequential way. The Steelers wrote the narrative for this year to be a regression fantasy football-wise for Najee Harris, I just told you about it.
Joe Mixon totaled 6 games scoring 10 points or less in 2021 and 7 games at 23 points or more. Fantasy Football is a weekly game, and 37.5% of games being bust games is not a desirable number for a running back. The Cincinnati Offensive line has improved, but they will still be running the ball out of requirement and giving Joe Mixon sparring targets. Mixon is not a part of the game plan in the passing game, never having received more than 55 targets in a season. Mixon rode a 16-touchdown season in 2021 to the RB3 rank setting him up for touchdown regression. I will pass at this ADP.
Nick Chubb is simply a better football player than a fantasy football player. He could very well be the most dynamic rusher between the 20s I have ever watched in my life. Where he comes up a bit short is 10-zone rushing and the receiving game. As we know, 10-zone rushing and receiving is the money maker in fantasy football. Unfortunately, Kareem Hunt is better at both of those things. In the first 6 weeks of 2021, when Hunt was playing, Chubb was the RB14. Kareem Hunt sharing that backfield makes Chubb at RB9 overall too much of a reach and decidedly NOT a value.
Dobbins and Hunt are where we find our value in the AFC North. Dobbins finished as the RB12 in 2020 from weeks 7 to 17 and was in a significant timeshare. Hunt was the RB8 from weeks 1-6 in 2021 WITH Nick Chubb on the field because of his end zone and receiving prowess. Dobbins has health question marks, but with Gus Edwards being on the PUP could be in line for a top 5 season if healthy. Hunt could be in for a top 15 season even if Nick Chubb stays healthy and is a near lock for the top 5 if Chubb goes down. So, who is the better value? Well, due to my being a coward, I declare them both the winner. If I go zero RB and end up with these two as my RB1 and 2 I will declare victory at the draft and never look at my roster again…just kidding…sort of.
Wide Receiver Summary
Follow @bill_mustafaCINCINNATI BENGALS
Ja’Marr Chase – Fantasy Pros ADP 9 – WR3
Tee Higgins – Fantasy Pros ADP 30 – WR12
The Super Bowl LVI runners-up boast a fearsome 1-2-punch at the WR position. Ja’Marr Chase, the 5th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, was a revelation in his rookie season, catching 81 balls for 1,455 yards and 13TDs, cementing himself as one of the game’s premier pass-catchers. He’s a top-5 option at the position and will be a first-round selection in every draft.
Tee Higgins finished his campaign strong, with a stellar 100-yard, 2TD game in the Super Bowl loss to the Rams. Higgins enters the 2022 season as the WR2 for Cincinnati, but it’s important to remember that there aren’t many WR2s as talented as the former Clemson man. Last year Higgins finished as a low-end WR2 even though he only played in 14 games, and whilst I think his current WR12 ADP is paying for his ceiling, I certainly expect him to improve on his WR22 finish from 2021.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Diontae Johnson – Fantasy Pros ADP 43 – WR16
We don’t yet know how Diontae Johnson will fare without Ben Roethlisberger throwing him check-down passes approximately 2.2 seconds after the snap, but seeing as the Steelers trusted Johnson enough to reward him with a new two-year, $39.5m contract, I’m going to keep the faith in him once again being one of the better fantasy football contributors at the WR position.
The draft-day selection and training camp emergence of George Pickens has the football salivating about what he can become in this Pittsburgh offense, but, for the time being, it’s Johnson who’s the top pass-catching option in Pittsburgh.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Amari Cooper – Fantasy Pros ADP 68 – WR27
Due to the Dallas Cowboys not knowing how to structure contracts correctly based on roster priorities, Amari Cooper found himself traded to Cleveland in return for a fifth-round draft pick. He’ll immediately become the Browns’ number one receiving option and the best pass-catcher they’ve had since OBJ left town to go and win a Super Bowl in L.A.
Unfortunately for Cooper, he finds himself in one of the run heaviest offenses in football and with the strong possibility that he’ll be catching passes from a mixture of Jacoby Brissett, Joshua Dobbs & Josh Rosen until at least Week 13. The days of Amari Cooper being a solid WR2 option in FF are long gone.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Rashod Bateman – Fantasy Pros ADP 80 – WR33
The second-year receiver is a player who seemingly splits opinion in the FF world after an underwhelming rookie campaign. Bateman only played 12 games as a rookie and looked impressive on the field. He’ll enter the 2022 season as the top receiver on the depth chart and is being drafted as a low-end WR3. Read a more in-depth piece on Rashod Bateman here
Best Value at the Wide Receiver Position
Follow @FFChalupaBatmanThere are plenty of talented wide receivers in the AFC North, but three drafted within the first 40 picks, based on FantasyPros consensus ADP. They could be worth their draft cost, but you are selecting them around their ceiling. The best value is Rashod Bateman, drafted as the WR38 at pick 92 (mid-8th round).
Rashod Bateman is the WR1 for the Baltimore Ravens this season. The only target competition will be from Mark Andrews. Last year, most targets funneled to three players at the end of the season: Mark Andrews (31.3% share the final three weeks), Marquise Brown (25.3%), and Rashod Bateman (19.2%). The next closest player was James Proche, with an 8.1% target share for the last three weeks of 2021. The Ravens traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason. The Ravens did not add any wide receivers to compete with Bateman. I do not expect the Ravens to be as pass-heavy as last season. However, Bateman should see at least 110 targets (6.5/game), and 120 targets (7/game) is reasonable. You will not find wide receivers with that projected production in the 8th rou
Bateman was injured in the preseason of his rookie year, and Lamar Jackson dealt with injuries and COVID last year too. Some people may forget how dominant Bateman was in college at the University of Minnesota in the Big 10. According to Player Profiler, he was 98th percentile for college target share (35.7%) and 82nd percentile college dominator score (40%). That illustrates how many targets he had compared to everyone else on his team in college. The passing offense went through Bateman. Also, Bateman’s breakout age was 18.8, which is in the 93rd percentile. Player Profiler compares Rashod Bateman to Stefon Diggs.
The Year 2 breakout season is coming this year for Rashod Bateman, and you can draft him in the 8th round as your WR3 or WR4. Honestly, you should draft Bateman in the 7th round so you do not miss out on him, and he is still a value at that draft cost!
Just a few reasons to be excited about Rashod Bateman in 2022. pic.twitter.com/93qE3Uecej
— Jake Schyvinck (@JakeNFLDraft) August 21, 2022
Tight End Summary
Follow @JoeEMatzThe AFC North Tight Ends for this upcoming fantasy season, at first glance, appear to be a division with one alpha stud, and three guys that few are excited about. However, I think there is some potential value in your upcoming fantasy drafts at this position, and not only with Mark Andrews.
Let’s discuss the AFC North Tight Ends!
Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens/TE ADP 2)
The 2021 season left no doubt that Mark Andrews belongs in Tier 1 of Tight Ends for fantasy football. He finished 1st in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), 2nd in receptions, 2nd in 1st down receptions, 3rd in yards per route, and he plays for a team that targets Tight Ends (29%), more than any team in the league. If you were in Vegas, you would say he ended his 2021 campaign on a heater, helping many fantasy owners win their fantasy football leagues(he was rostered on 38% of teams playing in their fantasy championships). Over his final 5 games, Andrews saw 55 targets, hauling in 43 receptions for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns.
His spectacular performance over the final 5 games is exactly why I am worried about him at his current ADP. Andrews did all this over the final 5 with Tyler Huntley at QB, not Lamar Jackson. Over 40 percent of Andrew’s receptions, yards, and touchdowns came from the 5 games their franchise QB didn’t start. He was still targeted over 8 times a game in Lamar’s starts but only eclipsed 8 receptions in 2 of his 12 starts, compared to 4 of 5 in the Huntley games. With the return of JK Dobbins, I expect the Ravens’ run offense to be much better, meaning they will not be down and in throwing situations as often, and I expect Rashod Bateman to make a leap this season as a viable pass option. In the previous two seasons with Lamar as QB, he finished in the 58-64 reception range and 700-800 receiving yards. The good news is I expect him to score plenty of touchdowns, either way, he’s had at least 7 TD’s the last 3 seasons. Including catching 10 (one more than last season) touchdowns in 2019, with 40 fewer receptions than he had this past year. I am not saying I am against Andrews, or I am doubting him backing up his spectacular numbers from last year, but when you consider 40% of his damage was done in 5 games without their franchise QB. It does give me pause taking him ahead of Kyle Pitts and Dalton Schultz, who you can currently take later in your draft (much later in Schultz’s case.)
Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers/TE ADP 12)
If you listened to our weekly daily fantasy podcast last year, you are well aware of both me and my co-host Joe Matz’s love for Baby Gronk Pat Freiermuth. If not for the talent of Kyle Pitts and the fact he had significantly more yards and receptions than Freiermuth. I believe people would be higher on Baby Gronk coming into the 2022 season. It is very rare for Tight Ends to find success immediately, the fact that Pat found so much last season, especially down the stretch. I am thinking he could be a potential breakout player this fantasy season, and I love him at his current ADP.
Over Freiermuth’s final 11 games, he was targeted at least 6 times in 7 of those games, 4 or more receptions in 9 of the 11 games, and scored 6 touchdowns. I know some are concerned about the QB situation in Pittsburgh, but with all due respect to Ben Rothlisberger, he was a shell of himself last year. Whether it is rookie Kenny Pickett or Mitch Tribisky, I think Freiermuth will continue to be heavily targeted, especially in the red zone, due to his great blocking skills. Most of Trubisky’s best starts in Chicago, a tight end had at least 40 yards receiving, despite not having a tight end of Freiermuth’s talent on the roster. If Pickett ends up the starting QB, we know that a big TE is a young QB’s best friend. I think Freiermuth ends this season with close to double-digit TDs and in the 5-8 range for tight end scoring.
David Njoku (Cleveland Browns/TE ADP 18)
There are so many metrics that show Njoku could be the next tight end to break out after several disappointing seasons to start their career. He was 2nd in average yards after the catch per reception (7.2) and 8th in average yards after the catch above expectations. (per Next Gen Stat) He is a phenomenal blocker, finishing with a blocking grade per PFF of 72.4, only giving up one sack, meaning he will stay on the field more. However, I can’t justify selecting Njoku before his current ADP. In his 5 years in the NFL, he’s yet to score more than 4 TDs in a season, 639 yards is his highest receiving yard total for a year, and that was 4 seasons ago. Finally, in 2021 47% of his receiving yards stemmed from 2 games, and in 2020 44% of his receiving yards came from just two games. I know the addition of Watson has some giddy, and if he were playing all 17 games, I probably would be higher on Njoku, but his numbers barely justify him being the 18th tight end selected, much less any earlier than that.
Hayden Hurst (Cincinnati Bengals/TE ADP 27)
I love Hayden Hurst at his current ADP, mainly because he will have Joe Burrow throwing him passes in 2022, but there is other evidence that Hurst could be the tight end who breaks out after several disappointing seasons. I believe Hurst just needs an opportunity, and he will finally get that in Cincy. Over his first four seasons, Hurst has brought in 70 percent of his targets, he only has three career drops on 183 targets, and in 2019 Lamar Jackson had a 127.3 passer rating when targeting Hurst. He is now a part of a passing attack with the 9th highest EPA per dropback(0.161) and the 10th highest early down pass rate in the NFL (53.4%). I think Hurst is a significant upgrade to CJ Uzomah, and Uzomah had a breakout year last season. I think has a decent chance to eclipse Uzomah’s fantasy numbers last season, which makes him a borderline steal at his current TE ADP.
Best Value at the Tight End Position
Follow @JorgeBEdwardsThe best value at the tight end position is, without a doubt, Pat Freiermuth of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Going around players, according to Fantasy Pros half-PPR ADP, the likes of Russell Gage, Kirk Cousins, and a pair of rookie wide receivers in Treylon Burks and Garrett Wilson, Freiermuth is the safety blanket for the either Steelers QB (Trubisky or Pickett) that this team desperately needs and fortunately has. With the Steelers’ offensive line in complete disarray, whoever is in at QB will need to get the ball out quickly, and who better to target than a uber-athletic 6’5″ receiving tight end flashing across the middle of the field, helping to get first down yardage and more. Very few tight ends have the potential scoring upside of Freiermuth past his ADP. If you punt on the big 3, ensure you get Pat in the later rounds of your draft.
Linebacker Summary
Follow @natemarcumLogan Wilson (Cincinnati Bengals)
If there was a player that I hope can play a full season, Logan Wilson is near the top of that list for me. Last season, we saw Wilson begin his breakout season thru the first 12 games of the year before he suffered a shoulder injury that cost him the majority of the rest of the season. During that time, Wilson was the LB13 in 11 games played. He returned to play in Week 17 and then helped carry the Bengals to the Super Bowl. During the postseason, Wilson led all LB in tackles, passes defensed, and INT. This was just carry-over from the regular season, where he tallied 100 tackles, 5 TFL, 1 INT, 4 PD, and 4 INT. The four interceptions led all LB, despite only playing 13 games.
Wilson had off-season shoulder surgery and is expected to be ready for Week 1. If we look back at the portion of the season in which Wilson played, he was the LB13 thru Week 13. Currently being drafted as a solid LB2, I do believe there is upside for an LB1 finish. There may be a buying opportunity if fellow managers are hesitant due to the off-season shoulder surgery.
Myles Jack (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Myles Jack joins the Pittsburgh Steelers after being released by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Leading the Jags with 108 tackles, the Steelers hope to see Jack top the 100+ tackle mark for the 4th time in his 7th season. Jack will join fellow ILB Devin Bush with hopes that they can help bring the Steelers’ defense potency that they lacked in 2021. During the pre-season, many have noted how explosive Jack looks in this defense, especially his run-stopping. Run stopping hasn’t exactly been Jack’s forte over the years, but if he can clean up his missed tackle rate on runs from 2021 (10.8%) and improve his total tackle rate (11.8%), there is true LB2 upside. Playing in a division with an emphasis on the run game, ILB has a chance to shine.
Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah (Cleveland Browns)
The only thing stopping JOK from being a household name is the playing time. The Browns felt compelled to spread the snaps in 2021, but early reports are that JOK could see the lion’s share of the snaps. There is no doubt that with the snaps, there is LB1 upside with JOK. Defensive Coordinator, Joe Woods, said, “Speed, coverage ability, tackling, blitzing, everything.” This is the type of player that JOK can be. Last year was cut a little short when he had a high ankle sprain, costing him 4 games. Up until that point in Week 7, JOK was showing signs that he is a jack of all trades. Tallying 29 tackles, 4 PDs, 1 FF, and a sack, it was evident he could do it all. With a full-time role and a healthy ankle, I like the upside that we could see out of the 2nd year player. The woes on offense won’t hurt his chances to see the most snaps of his career!
Best Value at the Linebacker Position
Follow @natemarcumFor me, the best value at the linebacker position is Myles Jack. Since joining the Steelers earlier in the year in Free Agency, there had been almost zero chatter about him in IDP circles for most of the offseason, and for good reason. In 2021, as the LB1 on the Jaguars, Jack was one of the worst-rated run-stopping linebackers according to PFF in all of the NFL. The same could be the same for his coverage abilities at the position, too.
That being the case, he appears to be rejuvenated wearing the Black and Yellow in The Steel City, as many of his teammates and coaches have praised his aggressiveness in getting to the ball carrier during practices. While sharing ILB duties with fellow LB Devin Bush, a player who, after his ACL injury during his second year, hasn’t lived up to the hype he built during his rookie season, Jack should be a the forefront of most run-stopping opportunities for this defense. Considering the run-heavy teams in the division, he should be able to establish a stable floor for you as your LB3/IDP FLEX,
Defensive Back Summary
Follow @natemarcumMinkah Fitzpatrick (Pittsburgh Steelers)
It may be three years later, but Pittsburgh should still be patting themselves on the back for getting Minkah from the Dolphins. Since joining the Steelers, Fitzpatrick has averaged over 10 fantasy points per game and is coming off a huge 2021. Last year, Minkah led all DB with 124 tackles (84 solos), a significant jump from his 2020 season. I am not trying to discredit anything Minkah did in 2021, it was a phenomenal season. My main takeaway from this is that for a DB that plays 80% of his snaps as a deep FS, the tackle variance can be quite drastic. Much of his volume resulted from poor LB play and the ability of rushers and pass catchers to get past the 1st and 2nd lines of defense. I would just caution using his 2021 as your drafting guide and instead let someone else buy the bump.
Jessie Bates (Cincinnati Bengals)- Much of the offseason was dedicated to Bates’ reluctance to sign his franchise tender, but alas, he has signed and will play his 2022 season with the Bengals. I can’t say what motivates Bates, but I have always believed that contract seasons can benefit draft capital. There is little denying that Bates is a legit DB1, with overall finishes of DB13, DB14, and DB5 through his first three seasons. Last year, tho, Bates played through a neck injury that cost Bates the first missed game of his career. The lost game and snaps cost Bates his 4th consecutive 1,000 snap season and resulted in a DBG36 finish overall.
The outlook for Bates in 2022 is promising. If you were lucky enough to draft him a month ago while the holdout loomed, you got a DB1 for a DB3 cost. Going forward, the ADP will creep up, and you should feel confident that he will return value. Still only 25, Bates has had 3 seasons with 100+ tackles, 7.5+ PDs, and 3 INTs.
Vonn Bell (Cincinnati Bengals)
The other half of the daunting S tandem in Cincy. Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates are interchangeable in positioning, which makes them such a unique blend of ability and output. Vonn Bell displayed his enormous upside with his tremendous 2021 postseason. During that incredible run, he totaled 23 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 1 PD, and an INT. In fact, since joining the Bengals in 2020, Bell has proven his worth with overall finishes of DB27 and DB12. This isn’t to say that Bell wasn’t an impactful DB with the Saints, seeing as he had 80+ tackles despite never having a full season under his belt.
Vonn Bell has consistently seen a large portion of the snaps in the box and should continue to do so in 2022. During his two seasons with the Bengals, Bell has played 44% of the snaps in the box. This should help support his 5-year streak of 60+ solo tackles, as well as make it three straight years with at least 90+ tackles in addition to the laundry list of impact plays.
Grant Delpit (Cleveland Browns)
Finally returning to the field in 2021 after suffering an Achilles injury in 2020, the 2nd round pick out of LSU finally showcased his upside for the Browns. Despite being eased back into the fray and only seeing 599 snaps, Delpit was Top 10 among S in run stops! Seeing as how he played 40% of his snaps in the box and appears to have the same role in 2022, there is a reason for optimism. Delpit is an afterthought in most IDP drafts, and you can take him with the hopes of a very solid DB3 season (or higher)!
Chuck Clark (Baltimore Ravens)
Clark and the Ravens are less predictive for me in 2022. For starters, they lost longtime DC, “Wink” Martindale, and they added the most versatile DB in Kyle Hamilton. Despite seeing a similar snap assignment breakdown in 2021 compared to 2020, Clark saw his tackle volume drop by nearly 20%, yet his PDs jumped up 300% (4 in 20, 12 in 21). If there is upside potential, consider this. Clark finished 6th in QB pressures among S and 12th in Run Play Stops among S. It is this type of production that could generate a combo 20/21 season and return 90+ tackles, 2+ sacks, and multiple turnovers.
I am not completely sold on Chuck Clark as anything more than a DB3 with a limited ceiling.
Best Value at the Defensive Back Position
Follow @JorgeBEdwardsAs a value player at the position but not listed in our chart is my DB35 in my Fantasy Pros ECR rankings, Ronnie Harrison. In 12 games played last season, Harrison was the team leader at the position in total tackle rate of 9.8%. He was the highest-rated safety in run tackling and tackling overall at the position on the Browns, according to PFF, and had he played a full 17 games was on pace to be the Browns starting SS, playing closer to the box.
In leagues with requiring 3 DBs or multiple IDP FLEX Spots, Harrison is someone who you could get very cheaply or get on your team’s waiver wire to fill in key spots during the season. In leagues with fewer IDP roster requirements, you won’t need to roster him at all.
Defensive Lineman/EDGE Summary
Follow @natemarcumT.J. Watt (Pittsburgh Steelers)
I don’t know if there is anything that I can say that hasn’t already been said about T.J. Watt. He is an absolute cheat code if you can plug him into your DL spot, but even as an LB in 2021, he outscored his peers by 2 fantasy points per game. What you get out of Watt is an unrelenting edge rusher with a history of top fantasy finishes. Regardless of scoring, Watt has been at or near the top in both DL and LB finishes in FantasyPros scoring. From 2018-2021, he had overall finishes as the DL4, DL1, DL1, and DL1. If we just look at his overall finishes at LB, it is still incredibly impressive. (2018-LB17) (2019-LB7) (2020-LB8) (2021-LB2)
Since entering the league, Watt’s numbers have been eye-popping, to say the least. If you play in a league that rewards QB hits, like our Fantasy In Frames scoring, you will receive an even larger bump. From 2017 to 2021, Watt has tallied 72 sacks, 294 tackles, 98 TFL, 152 QB hits, 32 passes defended, 4 INT, 21 forced fumbles, and 7 fumble recoveries.
Cameron Heyward (Pittsburgh Steelers)
For the second time in three years, Cameron Heyward led all DLs in solo tackles. I begin with this statement because of the consistent nature of Heyward collecting tackles from a position that isn’t heralded for its tackle volumes. To add to the accolades, 2021 was also the 4th year in the past 5 that Heyward has recorded double-digit tackles for loss. It is this type of domination from a DL that is encouraging for IDP managers when looking for a consistent DL2/3.
Despite turning 33, Heyward continues to dominate. Finishing as the DL2 in FantasyPros scoring in 2021, there is a comfortable floor with, most likely, an already established season. With TJ Watt next to you, the attention he commands is considerably less than other interior linemen. I don’t suspect the volume and DL2 overall finish to be the outcome, but I believe he is an underlooked commodity.
Myles Garrett (Cleveland Browns)
If we need further proof that the AFC North is filled with exceptional IDP options, look no further than Myles Garrett! Quite possibly the most intimidating Edge rusher in the NFL, Garrett has his eyes set on another DL1 finish on a per-game basis. After navigating through a couple of frustrating seasons due to injury and suspension, Garrett played every game in 2021 and turned in his best statistical season. Aside from the 16 sacks, which ranked 1st among true DL, but 3rd among edge rushers, his 17 TFL was good for the Top 7 in the NFL.
I think there is a case to be made for Garrett being the first DL off of the board, and rightfully so! Let’s put the minor injury and mental mistakes behind us. Garrett was in the Top 3 in sacks and QB hits and backed up those gaudy numbers with a pressure rate that was among the best in the league. His 9.6 pressure % was 2nd in the NFL among pass-rushers with at least 450 pass rush snaps. Draft Garrett early, and don’t look back!
Trey Hendrickson (Cincinnati Bengals)
I mentioned above that Myles Garrett was 2nd among pass-rushers with at least 450 pass rush snaps. Trey Hendrickson’s 9.9% was #1. Many wondered what Hendrickson was capable of doing with the Bengals after his incredible 2020 season with the Saints. It didn’t come as a surprise to the Fantasy In Frames crew, considering we have been Trey fans since he started seeing starters’ snaps in N.O. Trey used his 13.5 sack season in 2020 as a springboard for a new contract with the Bengals and an even more productive 14 sacks in 2021! Before his signing, the Bengals ranked last with only 17 sacks, which Hendrickson nearly matched by himself! The bookends of Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson provide Cincinnati with a very effective pass rush. Despite the concerns that many critics had with Trey, his production wasn’t a byproduct of superior talent surrounding him in N.O. and creating sacks for him. His 53 pressures in 2020 were 6th in the league, despite only playing in 60% of the teams’ snaps. He followed that up with 45 pressures in 2021, despite being double-teamed quite frequently, resulting in the aforementioned league-leading 9.9% pressure rate (w/450+ pass-rush snaps).
I currently have Hendrickson in that upper tiering of DL, expecting another double-digit sack season with 20+ QB hits and 12+ TFL. Feel comfortable knowing that the Bengals should be leading in their fair share of games, allowing Trey to feast on opposing teams’ passing game.
Odafe Oweh (Baltimore Ravens)
Odafe Oweh is one of the potential “breakout” stars of 2022. A rare blend of speed and size on a team with a long-running history of producing elite pass-rushers. The Ravens did bring Justin Houston back to line up opposite Oweh while the Ravens get healthy. Tyus Bowser and 2nd-round pick David Ojabo are recovering from lower body injuries. This seemingly means that the Ravens will lean on Oweh to take that next step. Last year, Oweh was constantly banged up with a shoulder injury, yet still had 5 sacks and 15 QB hits. There could be good value if you invest a late-round pick in Oweh, with DL3 upside!
Best Value at the Defensive Lineman/EDGE Position
Follow @JorgeBEdwardsWith a division as stacked as this at the DL/EDGE position, finding value is just not going to happen for a week-in and week-out starter. Premium prices it is!
Thanks for reading our 2022 Fantasy Football Preview of the AFC North.
To see our other 2022 Divisional Previews click here.
Now go out there and crush your fantasy football drafts!
