2022 Fantasy Football Preview: NFC North

August 21, 2022 Team Fantasy In Frames

Welcome to our next Fantasy Football Divisional Preview for the 2022 NFL Season!

While loaded with information from both sides of the ball, all of our writers here at Fantasy In Frames made sure to make all of our analyses as digestible as possible so that you can get the detailed information that you NEED to go out there and dominate your fantasy football drafts. Let’s keep things going with our 2022 Fantasy Football Preview of the NFC North!

Quarterback Summary

Aaron Rodgers

The back-to-back MVP seems to be entering his most important season in a while. Rodgers will be without his star wide receiver Davante Adams for the first time since 2013. Instead, Green Bay will have a receiving core made of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, and a couple of rookie receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. That said, Rodgers will still very likely be the best QB in this division for fantasy football. Among quarterbacks who had at least 50% of 751 dropbacks last season, Rodgers ranked top 5 in completion percentage, PFF grades for offense, passing, and fumbles, and had the best NFL passer rating. Aaron Rodgers is still the king of the NFC North.

Kirk Cousins

One of the more controversial QBs in the NFL, not for anything he does off the field but for his play on the field. He is regarded as not an elite QB but the stats from last season beg to differ. Among quarterbacks who had at least 80% of 751 dropbacks last season, Kirk Cousins ranked 3rd in PFF offensive grade, 2nd in PFF passing grade, 3rd in average depth of target, and 2nd in NFL passer rating. With comments from his star receiver Justin Jefferson, saying that the offense will look to be more pass-heavy, Cousins may be a great option for your quarterback position in later rounds of your fantasy draft. Keep your eye on Kirk Cousins in the ninth round.

Jared Goff

This may just be from the Hard Knocks hype, but I don’t care. I am really excited for the Lions this season. D’Andre Swift has the chance to be a Top 5 running back, Amon-Ra St. Brown looks great, Aidan Hutchinson and the rest of that defense look like studs, and their coaching staff seems dedicated with Dan Campbell at the helm. What does this mean for Jared Goff? Added fantasy value! Especially during the second half of the season when rookie Jameson Williams is expected to return from injury. The Lions lost a lot of their games last season by one score, look for them to have much more success this season.

Justin Fields

I have Fields ranked last in this division not because I think he is a bad player but because we haven’t seen much from him. I actually have very high hopes for Fields, and I think he can be great for the Bears. A major issue for Chicago is their o-line. This will force Fields to run out of the pocket more, which could gain him a bit more value in fantasy football leagues. Until then, it is yet to be seen what kind of player Justin Fields will be. I see him as a great backup QB in fantasy, someone to pick up late in drafts and stash on your bench, hoping he breaks out.

Best Value at the Quarterback Position

You can make a convincing case that 3 of the 4 QBs from this division deserve the title of best value (Sorry, Jared Goff). Justin Fields sits at QB17 currently, and he finished as a Top 10 QB in 4 of his last 5 starts in his rookie year. We talk about the upside of Lance and Hurts because of their ability to run the ball, but Fields averaged over 50 yards per game on the ground over his last 6 starts giving him a very high floor week to week. Kirk Cousins is currently QB14, now running an offense that made Jared Goff a Top 10 Fantasy QB twice. Cousins is a much better QB than Goff (sorry again, Jared Goff), and he has better weapons around him. I can’t wait to see Justin Jefferson in the Cooper Kupp role or Dalvin Cook in the Todd Gurley role. I’m big on the Vikings overall on the offensive side of the ball for fantasy this year, but the answer is the most obvious one it’s Aaron Rodgers. 

The fact that Aaron Rodgers is currently QB13 is ridiculous. This is the same Rodgers who, since 2008, in every season he’s played at least 15 games, he’s finished Top 10 in QB scoring 9 of 11 times, scored 20 or more ppg 8 of those 11 seasons, and thrown 25 or more touchdown passes in every season with more than 9 starts for his career. Some will argue he’s fallen off; however, he’s thrown 30 or more TDs in 5 of his last 7 seasons. He’s averaged 36.5 touchdowns over his last 9 full seasons, and you really think this guy won’t be a QB1? 

I know people are going to say, look at his wide receivers, he’s getting older, look at the target share that left with Adams, but don’t overthink this. Rodgers is every bit, if not more, responsible for the success of receivers like Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams. Jennings was his predominant target from ’08-’12, then Nelson took over for 4 and a half years from 2012-2016, and since 2017 it’s been Davante Adams in that role. Rodgers will find another top target and be great in the process. It could even be a running back like Aaron Jones, who ends up with the lion’s share of those targets, but I’m confident in several things in drafting Rodgers. He will throw for over 4,000 yards, throw 25 plus touchdowns and end the season in the Top 10 of QB scoring. This is why at QB 13, he is the best value in the NFC North at QB. 

Running Back Summary

The NFC North has the best group of running backs from top to bottom. There is a balance of veteran and young talented running backs. The latest drafted starting running back in the division, David Montgomery, is the RB18 at pick 33, according to FantasyPros. AJ Dillon is technically a backup running back and is the RB25 at pick 55!

Below is a summary of each running back.

Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones could have the most targets on the Green Bay Packers in 2022. The wide receiver room is lacking this season, so Jones can be a target monster. Targets are worth more than carries in half-PPR leagues. Aaron Jones shared the backfield with AJ Dillon last season and Jamaal Williams in 2020. Jones had an identical snap share (51.8%) and snaps per game (38.5) in both seasons! He was the RB6 in points per game in 2020 (16.8) and the RB14 in points per game in 2021 (13.5). The greatest difference was 30 fewer carries and 305 fewer yards in 2021 compared to 2020. Jones averaged 65.3 targets per season over the last three years. He was 2nd on the team behind Davante Adams for target share for all three seasons between 10-12%. Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling left this offseason. They accounted for 40% of the target share in 2021. Targets are earned, and Rodgers trusts Jones. He could be closer to a 20% target share in 2022, which could lead to massive fantasy point production for Aaron Jones. According to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Jones is the RB10 at pick 17. You should target Aaron Jones at the end of the 1st round.

AJ Dillon

It feels like AJ Dillon is the new “hotness” for 2022. The pictures of his massive quads don’t hurt his case. Dillon is a big, bruising running back, but he did well in the passing game in 2021. He had 34 receptions from 37 targets for 313 yards (9.2 yards/rec). Aaron Rodgers wants the best 11 players on the field this season, which includes Jones and Dillon. There is a good chance Jones and Dillon are on the field together, which means Dillon will have more opportunities this season for touches. We never hope for injuries, but they happen in football. If Aaron Jones missed any time this season, AJ Dillon would rank as an RB1 weekly. He has standalone value and is a “lottery ticket” player simultaneously. That makes him a draft target. According to FantasyPros ADP, Dillon is the RB25 at pick 55. Dillon provides a solid floor with a ton of upside in 2022.

Dalvin Cook

Dalvin Cook has been a great running back but has never played more than 14 games in a season. Nobody doubts Cook’s talent, but his injury history always makes people question if they should draft him in the 1st round. Cook is a bell-cow running back that gets goal line carries, a rarity in the NFL today. In 2020, Cook scored 17 total touchdowns and was the RB2 in points per game (22.6). In 2021, Cook only scored six touchdowns. He had 15-goal line carries but only converted three touchdowns. Touchdowns are not a sticky stat, and Cook will continue to receive plenty of opportunities. He has the 2nd most rushing yards per game over the last two seasons (106.2) and is only behind Derrick Henry (121.8). Cook has plenty of injury risk, but he is still a stud running back. According to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Dalvin Cook is the RB6 at pick 7.

David Montgomery

David Montgomery is the least exciting running back in this division, but he is consistently solid. Montgomery averaged 17+ carries and 3+ receptions per game last season. He dominated the snap share with 74.6%, which was 2nd highest in the NFL. Montgomery’s issue is the Bears’ offensive line is terrible. That is why his value is depressed in drafts. The Bears should not score much in 2022, which limits Montgomery’s touchdown opportunities. According to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Montgomery is the RB18 at pick 33. There are other players around that ADP that I prefer to draft, so I typically do not get Montgomery in my leagues. However, he is fine as your RB2 or RB3 based on the start of your draft. I would not be comfortable with Montgomery being my RB1 on my roster.

D’Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift is the most dynamic running back in this division. He has the skill set to be the top running back in fantasy football. Swift has had trouble staying healthy so far during his NFL career. The Detroit Lions should have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season. He is most dangerous in the passing game. In 2021, Swift had 78 targets, which was 4th most for RBs in the NFL, and averaged six targets per game. That average would have given him 102 targets in 17 games, which would have led the NFL last season. The Detroit Lions are on HBO’s Hard Knocks, so there will be extra hype for Swift in August that could adjust his ADP. According to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Swift is the RB9 at pick 15. That is a STEAL because he has 1st round talent and can be the RB1. I am targeting D’Andre Swift at the end of the 1st round. If you want to win your fantasy football league, you need to take on some risks to acquire talented players.

Best Value at the Running Back Position

The best value out of the NFC North is A.J.Dillon. Why? Aside from what was mentioned above, in 2021, Dillion averaged 14.3 PPG when having on average 16.8 touches (attempts & receptions) per game. That was with Aaron Jones and Davante Adams sharing time on the field with him. Given the fact that Aaron Rodgers has come out and stated he wants all of his best players available at all times on the field, getting close to that average isn’t outside the realm of possibilities. Dillon has too much upside to pass up on as your RB2.

Wide Receiver Summary

Justin Jefferson is a consensus top-5 WR and is going in the first half of the first round according to his FantasyPros ADP. The reports from camp are that Jefferson will be utilized in a multitude of ways in an attempt to target the specific weakness of the defense they’ll be up against that week. Jefferson will be the focal point of this Vikings offense and should be one of the first three WRs off the board in any format. 

Adam Thielen will play the second fiddle to Jefferson in Minnesota’s passing attack. Whilst that doesn’t necessarily mean the end for his Fantasy Football relevance, It does mean that the days of Top-10 WR finishes are long gone for the soon-to-be 32-year-old. If reports are to be believed, Thielen has looked like his old self in camp since recovering from ankle surgery. And with coverage almost certainly being skewed towards Jefferson, we should see Thielen with some favorable matchups, enough to make him a value at current ADP. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown was a Fantasy Football darling at the backend of last season and early this off-season, but some of the shine has come off since the Lions traded up in the first round for Jameson Williams. Read my thoughts on ARSB here.

Darnell Mooney will get his opportunity to function as the #1 WR for the Bears offense this year after Allen Robinson departed for LA in free agency. The former Tulane man has flashed his route-running ability in his rookie and sophomore seasons and finished as a fantasy-relevant WR2 last year. Even in a more than likely underwhelming offense this year, I expect Mooney to provide value at his current ADP. 

Allen Lazard may well be the Green Bay Packers WR1 in 2022. Davante Adams had been the unquestioned alpha in Title Town since 2016, but with him reuniting with Derek Carr in Las Vegas, that position is now vacant. The draft-day additions of Christian Watson and the impressive Romeo Doubs have slowed some of the hype around Lazard. But with Aaron Rodgers’ well-known tendency to trust veterans and overlook his rookie pass-catchers, Lazard could prove great value in a strong passing offense with one of the game’s premiere QBs.

Best Value at the Wide Receiver Position

As much as I’d like to spend the next few hundred words espousing my love for future Hall of Fame inductee Romeo Doubs, I shall put my biases aside for now.

Chicago may not have much to celebrate this coming year, but one bright spot is likely to be their 2020 fifth-round pick, Darnell Mooney. At WR24, according to FantasyPros’ ECR, to me, Mooney represents the best value at wide receiver in the NFC North. Mooney saw a staggering 140 targets in his second season, the 11th most in the league last year, equating to around a quarter of the team’s targets. Given the lack of investment in skill-position players this off-season, a target share of 25-30% looks to be well within his range of outcomes this year.

Betting firms project the Bears to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season. The team’s over/under win total this season is set at 6.5, with only a handful of teams currently projected to win fewer games. Mooney will therefore face plenty of negative game scripts and plenty of opportunities to contribute. Garbage time points count as much as any others, remember? All of this means Mooney will once again be heavily targeted in this offense and will cement his role as the team’s true WR1.

Tight End Summary

There may be no stud tight end in the NFC North, none of these guys is going in the Top 50 of your draft, but there’s still plenty of intrigue with a group that all rank between seventh and nineteenth at the position in FantasyPros ADP (half-point PPR). In fact, two of them finished among the top five tight ends in total scoring in 2022, and the other two have seen their fair share of sleeper hype. 

T.J. Hockenson

Few tight ends have a better pedigree than Hockenson. At Iowa, he succeeded George Kittle and, despite having Noah Fant alongside him, led the Hawkeyes in receiving yards as a redshirt sophomore, becoming one of only three tight ends to be drafted in the top ten in the last 16 years. After a strong second year in the league (fourth in total scoring, and seventh per game, among tight ends), he seemed destined for fantasy stardom when he opened up 2021 with back-to-back games with eight receptions and a score. Alas, things didn’t quite play out that way. 

Hockenson was still good, he was sixth in per game scoring, but nothing more. He wouldn’t find the end zone again until Thanksgiving. He hit eight or more targets in eight games but didn’t top three in his other four games. It was a productive season, at least until he got hurt, but still a frustrating one. 

There are reasons to believe this year could be better. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s emergence means teams won’t be able to heavily key on Hockenson, and new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was the Lions’ tight end coach the last two years, so there’s no reason to believe the team will be steering away from him (And if Dan Campbell holds onto play-calling duties he’s a former tight end/tight end coach himself). Hockenson already led tight ends in routes run per team pass play last year and contested catch percentage. 

At the same time, though, all of the best metrics suggest his ceiling isn’t much higher. Among tight ends, he was between 11th and 18th in PFF receiving grade, yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, & Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Hockenson is young enough that he could make another leap up in performance, but good, not great, may just be who he is, and Jared Goff & this offense aren’t going to elevate him. 

Ultimately his ADP of tight end seven and #67 overall is about right. Hockenson protects you from the doldrums of the position however he’s not someone you should reach for. 

Cole Kmet

Kmet has a number of similarities to Hockenson. He was the top tight end in his draft class, albeit 35 picks later, he ran a 4.7 forty, he’s locked into being one of the top two targets in his offense, and that offense probably won’t be very good. 

The Bears’ offense certainly wasn’t good last year. Chicago finished 27th in points and 24th in yards, with both of those being worse when only looking at passing scores and yards (30th and 29th). Justin Fields and Andy Dalton struggled behind a porous offensive line while Matt Nagy sleepwalked through the season. Kmet failing to score a touchdown, despite 60 receptions for 612 yards becomes much more understandable when you factor in the mess around him. How much that mess is fixed is a big part of figuring out Kmet’s ceiling. 

To that end, James Daniels and Allen Robinson departing without anything close to approximate replacements aren’t inspiring, but things should still be better. Fields is bound to improve in year two (I’d still bet on him being the second best QB in his class, though your mileage may vary) & for all of the gnashing of teeth over the Bears hiring a defensive head coach, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy spent the last two years as Green Bay’s passing game coordinator and figures to actually cater to Field’s skillset. 

Better QB play, & play calling, isn’t a high bar for Chicago, but it’s still good news for Kmet, who, despite the lack of touchdowns, was trending in the right direction as last season wore on. He saw at least five targets in eleven of his twelve games, and in two of his final games with Fields at QB he grabbed at least six receptions for 71 yards. The targets aren’t going anywhere with Darnell Mooney, the only viable receiver on the team, and the chemistry with Fields should only grow. This means the touchdowns will come. Probably not a bunch of them, unless the offense is vastly improved, but Kmet’s floor on receptions and yards should be in the 70/750 range, so he won’t need a ton of scores to justify his 131st ADP (13th TE). 

If you’re planning to wait on tight end, Kmet deserves strong consideration. 

Irv Smith Jr.

Smith was probably THE sleeper tight end of 2021. The former Alabama stud scored three times in the last four games of the 2020 season, and everyone was excited to see what an athletic tight end could do with defenses already stretched thin by Jefferson, Thielen, and Cook. Then he tore his meniscus before the season started, and the not quite as dynamic Tyler Conklin took his place. Smith’s back now (a thumb injury has sidelined him recently, but he’s expected to return week one), and with him his tantalizing potential. 

Smith hasn’t been a full-time starter since he was at Alabama, but in his final year there, he competed for targets with one of the most stacked receiving groups ever (Jeudy, Waddle, Ruggs, and Devonta Smith), and he came away with 44 receptions, 710 yards, and seven scores. The talent is there, and his 2020 season suggests it translates to the pros. 

Kirk Cousins posted a 134.4 QB rating when targeting Smith in 2020, the second highest mark among tight ends and better than Jefferson or Thielen. He also ranked seventh among tight ends in DVOA, and his 75.4 PFF receiving grade would’ve ranked eighth last year – ahead of Darren Waller and Hockenson. To be sure, this was on only 43 targets, so we shouldn’t get too carried away. 

New coach Kevin O’Connell brings Sean McVay’s system from the Rams, and while that’s most exciting for Justin Jefferson, it’s worth remembering that Tyler Higbee managed to finish as tight end eight in 2019 – and that was with Gerald Everett siphoning off 60 targets. Just because the Vikings will be playing a lot of 11 personnel doesn’t mean tight end will be ignored. 

Smith’s currently the 15th tight end on FantasyPros ADP, two slots behind Kmet. Going by fantasy floor, that seems fair, between his limited production as a pro and competition for targets, there’s a real chance he’s not a fantasy starter, but his ceiling could be as much as ten spots higher. As we’re about to discuss with our next player, being a red zone target in a high-end offense can lead to massively outperforming what your target share would suggest, so if you are as bullish as I am on the Vikings offense (especially if you miss out on Jefferson and Cook) Smith is a great late-round flier. 

Robert Tonyan

If you drafted Robert Tonyan last year, chances are you ended up profoundly disappointed. He shocked the fantasy world in 2020 with a top three finish at the position (fifth in per game scoring), but last season he played only eight games and wasn’t even in the top 25 in per game scoring. It was only the severity of his fall that was surprising, though. He saw only 59 targets in 2020, catching 88% of them and converting nearly one in five to a score simply wasn’t sustainable. Indeed his routes run and target share were remarkably steady from 2020 to 2021, but his efficiency was not though. He lost over a half yard per route run, and over a fantasy point per target, as his touchdowns plummeted from eleven to two. Normally that would be the end of it, we’d write Tonyan off as a one-year wonder who’s a fantasy depth piece at best, however, opportunity knocks on this year’s Packers squad.

Davante Adams’ departure for Las Vegas has suddenly turned every Packers’ pass catcher into a potential lottery ticket. Less you forgot, he had 169 targets last season (104 more than any teammate), with 27 of those coming in the red zone and resulting in ten touchdowns. Obviously, no one person will fill that void, so targets should be going up across the board. Tonyan should have an edge by having pre-existing chemistry with Rodgers, something only presumed number one Allen Lazard and the aging Randall Cobb can also say, and he caught three touchdowns in one of the games Adams missed in 2020 (Caveat: it was against the Falcons). Eleven touchdowns on 59 targets won’t happen again because that’s absurd, but if Tonyan bumps up to the five targets a game range, another season with double-digit scores isn’t out of the question.

That’s Tonyan’s only true path to fantasy relevance, though. He’s limited with the ball in his hands, he hasn’t forced a single missed tackle in either of the last two years (He’s also coming off an ACL tear for good measure), and his PFF receiving grade came in sterling 61st out of 70 qualifying tight ends last year. The other three guys in this division will see plays schemed up for them to get the ball in their hands every game, whereas Tonyan is a pure secondary option. If you’re low on Lazard and co. then he could still be worth a play, especially with an ADP of 179 (19th TE), but if I’m rostering a second tight end, I’d rather take a shot on more dynamic guys with a better chance of being featured players in their passing attacks like David Njoku or Evan Engram. 

Best Value at the Tight End Position

The tight ends in the NFC North don’t make me feel all tingly, but they could certainly make me leave a draft and shrug, thinking it could have been worse.  This division is full of question marks at the tight end position.  Whether it be injury, inexperience, ineptitude, or instability, this division covers all bases.  Before diving in, let’s look at the draftable tight ends in this division and their current ADP on Fantasy Pros.

–          Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears: TE13, 134 overall

–          Irv Smith Jr, Minnesota Vikings: TE15, 158 overall

–          Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers: TE17, 183 overall

–          TJ Hockenson, Detroit Lions: TE7, 66 overall

Let’s start with injury, Robert Tonyan was recently activated off the PUP list after tearing his ACL in week 8 of the 2021 season.  Big Bob is a true wild card as we don’t know when he will play or if he can return to his 2020 form and catch double-digit touchdowns again.  Through 8 games last season, he only caught 2 touchdowns which does not bode well for his season outlook.  Add to all those question marks that third-year tight end Josiah Deguara has been receiving first-team reps all over the field, and you have a player that lands on my do not draft list.

Next up is Irv Smith Jr, who has thus far had an extremely disappointing start to his career.  He was very unproductive in the two years he played. He then missed the entire 2021 season due to injury. To start camp, Irv Smith is dealing with yet another injury and the number of reps he has missed with Kirk Cousins over the past 4 years continues to pile up.  Big Irv still has a chance to be productive this season however it will not be on any of my rosters, barring a last-round flier pick.

Next up is TJ Hockenson.  He is a talented player with extremely high draft capital that has piled up 128 receptions over the past two seasons.  I like Hockenson as a player and think he will be a great fantasy producer eventually, however, this year, the juice is simply not worth the squeeze.  Once you get outside of the top 5-6 tight ends, the next 10 players are seemingly interchangeable in your lineup.  I would highly recommend spending your mid-6th-round draft pick on someone with substantially more upside.  A few players in this range that I would recommend are Michael Thomas, Gabe Davis, or Chris Godwin.

“Lastly” but certainly not “leastly” (I don’t care, it rhymes) is Cole Kmet.  Cole Kmet is going to be on an offense that is going to be downright bad, possibly the worst offense in the NFL.  However, what he has going for him is that he and Darnell Mooney are the only two starting-level talents in this receiving corps. Don’t be surprised to see him and Mooney take the 450+ balls Justin Fields will throw and chunk off half between them.  Kmet’s production this year should be comparable, if not better, than TJ Hockenson and he costs less than half the price.  Cole Kmet’s ADP allows you to build an extremely strong lineup in the first 11 rounds. You can then fill out your tight end spot with a player who isn’t going to lose you weeks.  If you don’t like to or can’t draft one of the top 5 tight ends, do yourself a favor and wait on Kmet until the double-digit rounds and watch him put up a top 10 performance at the position for you.

Linebacker Summary

De’Vondre Campbell

In his 2nd year with Joe Barry, De’Vondre Campbell is looking forward to another amazing season.  After spending five seasons with the Falcons and the Cardinals, Campbell joined the Packers in 2021.  Despite having solid seasons in the past, it was truly under Joe Barry that Campbell excelled. As a result, the Packers extended De’Vondre for 5 years.  Campbell had only recorded one season in which he topped 100 tackles, but in 2021, Campbell recorded 102 solo tackles.  The 102 solos were the 3rd most in the NFL, and his 44 assists ranked inside the Top 25.  As if the tackle volume wasn’t enough to satisfy IDP managers, his 5th straight year of 1.5+ sacks should help with those stat stuffing cravings. 

In 2021, Green Bay primarily stuck to single linebacker usage, and the chance that the trend continues increases Campbell’s chances at an LB1 finish in 2022.  When the Packers drafted Quay Walker, there were questions about his usage, but I don’t believe it will result in decreased snaps for Campbell.  Draft Campbell as a comfortable LB1 with consistent week-to-week stats. (Campbell only had one week in 2021 where he failed to record less than 5 tackles)

Jordan Hicks

Jordan Hicks enters 2022 on the heels of his most dynamic IDP season to date.  Coincidentally, he will do so in a different jersey.  After spending the last three years with the Cardinals, he will now be a Purple People Eater.  Despite having a couple of productive seasons with the Eagles before Arizona, he never leaped LB1/LB2 until he joined the Cardinals.  During his time with Arizona, Hicks has played every game and has 384 tackles, 31.5 TFL, 6.5 sacks, 15 passes defended, and 7 turnovers. With Anthony Barr out of the equation, Hicks is set to slide in next to an All-Pro in Minnesota. 

Eric Kendricks

Kendricks is set for another successful season at LB, but with the added bonus of Jordan Hicks on his hip.  While Hicks has not seen a season snap total below 1,000 since 2018, Kendricks only has one above 1,000 in his career.  While this isn’t persecution of his health, it is actually remarkable. Despite missing at least 1 game in six of his seven seasons in the NFL, he has yet to return less than 8 fppg dating back to 2018.  There are very few bets that I would make at LB, but Kendricks returning a value based on ADP is one that I am pretty optimistic about.

Roquan Smith

Roquan is my overall LB1 in FantasyPros rankings.  Since coming into the league in 2018, Smith is 3rd in total tackles (1st in solo) and Top 10 in tackles for loss.  In addition to the lofty tackle volume and disruption behind the line of scrimmage, Roquan is also known to be disruptive in the passing game with his 17 passes defended and 5 INT.  The production on the field and IDP output shouldn’t change for 2022, but there will be changes.  The Bears brought in Matt Eberflus as HC and Alan Williams as DC.  The question really is….”Who will be at MLB?”  This isn’t a trick question!  Roquan Smith has requested a trade, and it appears that the Bears may be in the position to grant his request.  At the time of writing, Roquan is still penciled in as the starting LB for Chicago and should be as easy a lock as an LB1 as there is in the league. 

  

Best Value at the Linebacker Position

Nicholas Morrow

One of my favorite late-round targets at LB.  He is currently my LB26, and I am apparently the highest on him according to FantasyPros ECR rankings.  I am actually pretty comfortable with that ranking.  For starters, the news of Roquan leaving can be seen as a potential boost to his overall number, all the while being a major downgrade for the team as a whole.  Second, it could move Morrow into more of an MLB role and increase that tackle floor we all covet.   When Smith and the Bears reach an understanding, Morrow stays in a role that has proven very successful under Matt Eberflus, the weak-side linebacker.  If Morrow can stay healthy, a return to 2020 form (LB 24) is my absolute floor.  It was in that year that he was the ONLY LB to have 3 sacks and 9+ passes defensed.

Defensive Back Summary

Jaquon Brisker

There is a good chance that Brisker may be the rookie to get in IDP drafts.  Sure, he wasn’t a 1st round pick, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t primed for a key role with the Bears.  All that Brisker has done is impress new HC Matt Eberflus and DC Alan Williams.  Entering the season, it wasn’t 100% guaranteed that he would be in the box or deep at FS, but considering that Eddie Jackson has taken the majority of the deep snaps and Brisker has been in the box, it’s safe to say that a SS role is in the future for the rookie.  

One of the key areas that the Eberflus/Williams defensive style emphasizes is a presence in or around the line of scrimmage for one of their safeties.  It doesn’t take much to see the comps with Bob Sanders or, even more recently, Khari Willis.  It might be a shock to some, but I believe the Bears’ offense will be a little anemic at times and should keep Brisker on the field.  

Adrian Amos

If you are at the back end of your IDP draft and looking for just a consistent DB to add to your team, Adrian Amos could be your guy!  Amos has finished as the DB30, DB23, and DB34 during his tenure with the Packers.  While his overall finish is a byproduct of durability, since he hasn’t missed a game since 2017, he still has averaged 8fppg or more during that time.  

Amos won’t get the publicity that many other safeties get due to a depressed ceiling.  His concrete floor should be enough reason to grab him as your DB3.  Over the past 3 years with Green Bay,  Amos has averaged 83 tackles, 2 INT, 8.5 PDs, and 1 sack.  Buy the floor. 

Tracy Walker

Tracy Walker is one of the names that fantasy managers could be mentioning when the season ends as one of their “best picks.”  Walker is easily one of the forgotten DB studs due to his lack of playing time due to injury.  During his four-year career, Walker is still seeking that elusive 1,000 snap season.  His career high was last year with 881.  As a result, he was 9th in tackles and only one of four DBs with 100+ tackles and less than 1,000 snaps.  If we go back to 2019, where he saw a 6-game stretch of <40% team snaps due to injury, we saw the making of a DB1 with health.  Despite only playing 13 games and limited in others, he was 3rd in solo tackles and 6th in fppg per Fantasy Pros.  

Don’t be scared by the end-of-season numbers when it comes to drafting Tracy Walker.  Do be cautious with the injury woes, but know that he returned to this Lions team as a direct result of the coaching staff!  This team will put him in a position to be successful for both the Lions and your fantasy team. 

Harrison Smith

There’s typically no slowing Father Time, but apparently, Father Time has Harrison Smith on his IDP Dynasty team.  Smith enters 2022 in his age 33 season and has shown very little in the way of slowing down when it comes to IDP production.  All he has done since entering the league in 2012 is have the following:

  • DB1-6x’s
  • DB2-1
  • DB3-1

Each of his finishes outside of the Top 36 has been a result of injury.  In each of those seasons tho, he has averaged over 9.6 fppg.  If we average her per game average since 2012, it is an amazing 11.3 fppg would have been good as the DB9 overall last year.  

If you’re reading this Father Time, can we have at least one more season before you have to move him in your dynasty league?  Thank You again for the career-high 83 solo tackles and 3 sacks last year.  Let’s hope for that again in 2022!

Best Value at the Defensive Back Position

Jaquon Brisker, for me, is the best value at the DB position in the NFC North. While his 48% Box Snap percentage in these last two preseason games is encouraging for his tackling upside, his 20% missed tackle rate is not. However, that is something he can work on as the season progresses.

All you need to concern yourself with is that his ADP is fairly low because outside of linebacker Roquan Smith very few defenders on the Bears’ defense are sought after in IDP circles. Brisker, however, is in line to play a majority of snaps close to the line of scrimmage during the season, essentially helping to make him another potential run-stopping hybrid safety/linebacker. If you’re punting the DB position in your drafts, Brisker is an upside play that could give you immediate rewards in your IDP leagues this season.

Defensive Lineman/EDGE Summary

Rashan Gary

The Packers possess a defense that is just loaded with potential.  Rashan Gary, the 4th year player out of Michigan, may be one of my favorite targets in IDP drafts.  After two years of limited playing time, Gary finally saw significant snaps in 2021 (681).  What did he do with those increased snaps?  Glad you asked!  He finished 5th among Edge rushers in DEF grade per PFF.  He was 2nd in pressures, 5th in missed tackle rate (500 minimum snaps), and top 20 with 9.5 sacks.  All of these accolades, despite playing nearly 20% fewer snaps.  

While it’s difficult to project a huge snap spike, it is fair to say that he has earned a larger amount of playing time.  Add in the fact that Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry, and Devonte Wyatt are manning the middle, there should be a real chance that Gary is near the top of the sack leaderboard!

Danielle Hunter

If not for the neck injury that cost Hunter nearly two years of his football career, it would be a near lock to see Danielle in the Top 5 among DL options.  If we look back to the “pre-neck injury,” we bear witness to back-to-back seasons (2018-2019) with minimums of  70+ tackles, 14.5 sacks, 18 TFL, and 19 QB hits.  

In 2021, Hunter exploded out of the gate with 6 sacks across 7 games played until a torn pectoral muscle cost him the rest of the season.  Yes, we need to factor in injury history with our draft capital, but the DL1 OVERALL is a legitimate ceiling for this stud.  If you needed more clarity on the upside, Hunter was Top50 among DL in total pressures, sacks, and TFL…in only 7 games!

Za’Darius Smith

For the past three years, Packers fans have been cheering for Smith as he crushed opposing quarterbacks.  This year, they will be screaming for someone to block him when he faces them twice as a member of the Vikings. With Smith does come a grain of doubt since he missed nearly all of 2021 with a back injury resulting in surgery.  All reports are that he is recovering nicely and shouldn’t miss any time in 2022.  

It remains to be seen if Smith will return to his prior form, but he does fall in the “intriguing” tier of DL/EDGE options in IDP.  His two healthy years in GB resulted in 26 sacks, 107 tackles, 35 TFL, and 61 QB hits. Lining up next to Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen should make for an excellent pass rush.

Aidan Hutchinson

Projecting a rookie’s production is a very challenging task, but if there were a DL that I would hitch my wagon to, Hutchinson would be that guy.  Hutchinson led the Big Ten in sacks with 14 and was 3rd in the NCAA.  The accolades don’t stop there, as he was the

  • Big Ten Player of the Year
  • Ronnie Lott Trophy
  • Vince Lombardi Award
  • Ted Hendricks Award

While individual trophies don’t always equal NFL success, there is a clear path to snaps and a drive to be the best.  Hutchinson is heralded as one of the best DE prospects we have seen in quite some time, and he is already showing us signs of that in the preseason and on Hard Knocks.  In preseason game one, Aidan was in the backfield numerous times and was just a monster to stop.  Lining up opposite Penei Sewell in practices will go a long way in continued development.  

With Romeo Okwara rehabbing still from the torn Achilles, the opportunity to show his worth will go a long way in his IDP outlook.

Best Value at the Defensive Lineman/EDGE Position

While all the attention is going to Rashan Gary (rightfully so) in Green Bay in terms of EDGE rushers to target in your drafts, don’t sleep on fellow Packer EDGE rusher Preston Smith in terms of a value pick at DL/EDGE. Whether you’re playing in IDP leagues that reward QB Hits, as FIF IDP Scoring does, or leagues that do not, like FantasyPros, when you look at fantasy point production, both Smith and Gary are neck in neck with one another. Both had comparable pressure rates to one another among EDGE rushers in 2021. While Gary was 1st in that category, Smith was in the Top 12 as well.

Gary’s name is building a lot of hype in IDP circles in leagues with multiple starting DL spots. If you’re looking for a player like Gary but miss out on drafting him, go take his counterpart at a discount a few rounds later.

Thanks for reading our 2022 Fantasy Football Preview of the NFC North.

To see our other 2022 Divisional Previews click here.

Now go out there and crush your fantasy football drafts!