2022 Fantasy Football Preview: AFC East

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31 minutes read

Welcome to our first Fantasy Football Divisional Preview for the 2022 NFL Season!

While loaded with information from both sides of the ball, all of our writers here at Fantasy In Frames made sure to make all of our analyses as digestible as possible so that you can get the detailed information that you NEED to go out there and dominate your fantasy football drafts as efficiently as possible. Let’s get things started with our Fantasy Football Preview of the AFC East!

Quarterback Summary

Josh Allen

The reigning back-to-back Fantasy Football king at the QB position heads into the 2022 season as the MVP favorite and most ‘experts’ pick to lead all QBs in FF scoring for a third consecutive year. The additions of Jamison Crowder, who replaced Cole Beasley in the slot, James Cook, whom the Bills selected in the 2nd round, as well as the emergence of Gabe Davis, should make this offense a better unit. Allen is still QB1.

Tua Tagovailoa

In what is likely to be a make-or-break season for Tua in Miami, the addition of Tyreek Hill was, I’m sure, a welcome one. The speedster comes over from Kansas City to join Jaylen Waddle and give Tua the fastest WR duo in all of Football. Don’t sleep on Tua’s ability to get the ball to these two burners either, as the former Alabama QB was tied for first in Deep Ball completion percentage last year, completing 50% of his twenty-plus yard passes, according to Fantasydata.com.

Zach Wilson

After a rough rookie season for the #2 overall pick in 2021, it’s going to be interesting to see how he performs in his sophomore year. Skill-position reinforcement was a big need for Gang Green heading into this season, and they duly obliged with the additions of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in the draft. These two should help Wilson improve in at least one efficiency metric – Wilson was one of only four QBs who had 40 or more passes dropped in 2021, according to Fantasydata.com.

Mac Jones

The rookie QB who had the most success in 2021 has little to work with in terms of supporting cast in 2022. With a WR core consisting of DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and recent top-50 selection Tyquan Thornton. This underwhelming cast of characters paired with a run-first offense and Mac’s lack of threat as a runner make him a low-ceiling option.

Best Value at the Quarterback Position

The AFC East has one quarterback that stands head and shoulders above the rest, figuratively and literally. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, is the best fantasy football quarterback in the division. He’s being drafted as the QB1 at the beginning of the 3rd round (pick 25) in a majority of fantasy football leagues today. Allen has been incredible for fantasy, but at that ADP he would have to repeat as the QB1 and score a lot more than the other quarterbacks to return value. While Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the AFC East, he is not the best value. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, is being drafted as the QB17 at the beginning of the 11th round (pick 122) in drafts. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, is the QB22 in terms ADP and is being drafted in the middle of the 14th round (pick 162). Zach Wilson, New York Jets, rounds us out as the QB23 and is being drafted in the middle of the 15th round (pick 173). So which QB should I draft at value? The answer is actually quite simple.

Tua Tagovailoa is the best value at quarterback in the AFC East for the 2022 fantasy football season. He was the QB24 in points per game in 2021, which is not ideal. However, that was still more than Mac Jones (15.8 p/g) and Zach Wilson (13.1 p/g). Tua’s situation has improved the most this offseason with a coaching change, offensive line improvements, and the acquisition of Tyreek Hill. He is another year removed from his serious hip injury, suffered in college, and had his first fully healthy offseason. Tua’s first two seasons have been mediocre for fantasy points, but he is a talented and accurate quarterback. In 2021, he tied for the best accuracy on deep passes (50%), according to FantasyData. He needs to throw the ball deep more often to improve his fantasy point output, and with Tyreek Hill, the new offensive scheme will put Tua in a position to succeed in this capacity. 

Running Back Summary

On the face of it, the AFC East is light on the high-end running back talent we seek in fantasy. Yet while the division has only one RB ranked within the top-20 in half-PPR scoring according to FantasyPros’ expert consensus ranking (ECR), it may provide a number of intriguing later-round options. 

The head of the pack, Breece Hall, stands well ahead of the rest. Our own Keith Flemming rightly described Breece Hall as “the definition of a three-down back in today’s NFL” earlier this year. After amassing just shy of 4,700 scrimmage yards and scoring 56 touchdowns in his three years at Iowa State looks set to take the next step. While some may fear the presence of Michael Carter, Hall’s elite skill set and athleticism should see him dominate touches both in the run and pass game. At RB19, behind Zeke, Akers, and Montgomery, according to FantasyPros’ ECR, Hall possesses an enormous amount of upside at a reasonable draft cost. Carter, meanwhile, remains a high-end insurance policy.

In Miami, the running back room has been completely re-shaped, bringing in three free agents in the form of Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel. The arrival of former San Francisco offensive coordinator (and previously run game coordinator) Mike McDaniels points to a 49ers-style running attack. This, combined with the anticipation of an improved offense with a new coaching staff, the addition of Tyreek Hill, and hopefully further progression from Tua Tagovailoa, is certainly cause for excitement. The big question is, which of the three will emerge?

The Bills have largely been a team to forget about with regards to running backs in recent years due to Josh Allen’s prowess in the run game, particularly near the goal-line. Devin Singletary emerged as a strong fantasy option down the stretch last season, scoring an average of 16.8 fantasy points per game over the final four weeks of the regular fantasy season. After carrying this form into the NFL playoffs, many (myself included) hoped this would propel him to further fantasy relevance in 2022. However, the arrival of rookie pass-catching specialist James Cook, combined with Josh Allen’s abilities, will likely continue to limit his upside. Cook, meanwhile, holds plenty of PPR potential in an offense that ranked ninth in offensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders and fifth in total offensive yards.

In New England, Damien Harris’ RB13 finish in half-PPR scoring in 2021 was driven by the 15 touchdowns he scored. Betting on him again this year is betting on a repetition given his lack of usage in the passing game. As a clear regression candidate, a cheaper alternative in Rhamondre Stevenson remains an attractive later-round pick. With James White on the PUP list, it remains unclear who will emerge as a pass-catching option.

Best Value at the Running Back Position

As I review my AFC East Running Back rankings there is a lot of sneaky value to be had in this division.  The only running back in this division whose ADP is higher than my ranking is Breece Hall.  Call me crazy, but I’m hesitant to rank a committee, rookie running back on an extremely young offense very high.  The running back that I am taking here is Chase Edmonds.  Edmonds is a proven running back whose only real question is availability. The Dolphins prioritized Edmonds to the point of making him one of the very first free agents off the board and giving him the 14th largest (by Average Annual Value according to Spotrac.com) running back contract in the NFL.  Edmonds will be spelled in the rushing game by Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel, decreasing his volume but increasing his efficiency and potential availability.  The best part about Sony and Raheem is they are definitively NOT receiving backs.  Their combined career TARGETS (121) are fewer than Chase Edmonds’s career RECEPTIONS (128).

Edmonds is primed to be the 1A in a committee where he is the clear receiving back for a front office that made several aggressive moves to improve their offense.  Combine all of that information with the fact that his Sleeper ADP is the 34th running back coming off the board in the 8th round, and you have yourself a perfect scenario for a weekly RB2 on a championship roster.

Wide Receiver Summary

Who better to start off than the WR1 for the QB1 of fantasy football. Since being traded to the Bills in 2020, Diggs has had the best two years of his career. Being selected to the Pro Bowl twice and finished both seasons with at least 100 receptions for over 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Not much convincing is needed on this guy, but Diggs did rank top 10 in PFF grades for offense, receiving hand-drops, and pass-blocking last season. This is among wide receivers who have at least 50% of 189 targets. FantasyPros has him as WR4, I also have him ranked as WR4. Regardless, he will most likely finish top 5 among all wide receivers this year.

This next guy is a newcomer to the AFC East. Tyreek Hill was traded from the Chief to the Dolphins this past offseason. Hill is an all-around great receiver but is more known for his speed and his deep ball ability. Among wide receivers who had at least 50% of 39 deep ball targets last season, Hill ranked 1st in ADOT (average depth of target), 7th in yards per reception, tied for 7th in PFF hand-drops grade, and 8th in NFL passer rating when targeted.

While this all looks great for Hill, this may be an issue for his new QB Tua Tagovailoa. Tua’s play has been coming into question since his rookie season. Fans of Miami’s young quarterback have come to defend him, especially when it comes to his deep ball passing. Among QBs with at least 20% of 82 deep ball passes last season, Tau ranked 3rd in completion percentage, 2nd in yards per attempt, and 1st in adjusted completion percentage. Tua may look good throwing deep, but that might be because he attempted deep passes very few times. Among the same category of deep ball Quarterbacks, Tua ranked 35th in attempt percentage. He also ranked 3rd in turnover-worthy play percentage and 25th in NFL passer rating.

I have Hill ranked at WR10, although I may be a bit lower than the consensus on him. FantasyPros, as well as two of my other colleagues here at Fantasy In Frames have him ranked as WR9. I’m not saying don’t draft Hill, but understand his situation if you do.

We talked a lot about Tyreek Hill now, let’s talk about other Dolphins receiver. Jaylen Waddle had an exceptional rookie season in the NFL. 104 reception for 1015 yards and 6 touchdowns and finished as WR13 in PPR formats. Among wide receivers who had at least 50% of 189 last season, Waddle ranked 10th in targets, 7th in receptions, 7th in reception percentage, and 3rd in contested catch percentage. An already reliable target for Tua Tagovailoa, who now will get even less defensive attention with Tyreek Hill in town. If there is anyone that I would draft from the Miami Dolphins on my fantasy team, it’s my WR15 Jaylen Waddle.

Another AFC East wide receiver entering his second year is Elijah Moore. He was regarded as a fairly reliable option for Jets QB Zach Wilson. Unfortunately, Moore missed his week 4 matchup against the Titans and the last 5 weeks of the 2021 season due to a quad injury. In his 11 games of NFL action, he finished the season with 43 receptions for 538 yards and 5 touchdowns. Within those same games and among wide receivers who had at least 50% of 110 targets, Moore’s PFF grades for both offense and receiving ranked outside the top 20. If he had played those 6 games he missed, he would have been on pace to finish his season with 66 receptions for 831 yards. This would’ve ranked him just outside the top 30 among wide receivers with the same criteria.

With all this considered and the fact that the Jets used their #10 overall draft pick on Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson, this doesn’t look good for Elijah Moore’s value this season. I think the Jets are really making this a competition to see who could win the WR1 job. FantasyPros has Moore ranked as WR28, however, I am much lower on him at WR35. Elijah Moore is definitely someone I would try to avoid this year in redraft leagues.

If you follow fantasy football accounts on Twitter, you know that the Gabriel Davis hype train is moving, fast. This is mainly due to his outstanding performance against the Chiefs in last season’s playoffs, where he had 8 receptions for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns. Because of this performance, the hype around Gabe Davis has grown more and more every single day. It’s currently gotten to the point that FantasyPros has him ranked as WR29. That’s better than Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Thomas, Juju Smith-Schuster, Drake London, Christian Kirk, Allen Lazard, and Kadarius Toney, all of who have the potential of being the WR1 on their teams. Davis has a very small chance of being WR1 for the Bills, especially with Stefon Diggs in the picture. Unless an injury happens, stay far away from Davis at current ADP.

Garrett Wilson may very well be the reason why Elijah Moore underperforms in fantasy this year. One of two wide receivers drafted top 10 in the 2022 NFL draft, Wilson has the chance to make a name for himself in the big apple as well as the AFC East division as a whole. He finished his 2021 season at Ohio State with 70 receptions for 1058 yards and 12 touchdowns. Wilson was one of the top targets in a wide receiver room that had Jaxon Smith-Njibga (95 receptions for 1606 yards and 9 touchdowns) and New Orleans Saints 2022 draft pick Chris Olave (65 receptions for 936 yards and 13 touchdowns). There is a reason why the Jets used a top 10 pick in the draft on this guy. Zach Wilson does not yet have a solid #1 target to throw to, who better than the guy with the same last name. Garrett Wilson in the late 12th and early 13th rounds seems like a much better value than Elijah Moore in the 8th.

One Other Wide Receiver of Note

If there is one player to have in this New England passing game, it’s Kendrick Bourne. This post-Brady Patriots offense has been very run-heavy, leaving a lot of work off of Mac Jones’ shoulders. The reason for this is to make Jones adjust to NFL play as easily as possible. Belichick also wants to find a solid #1 target for Mac to rely on. Their most targeted wide receiver has been Jakobi Meyers, but he has very much underperformed, with only 866 yards and 2 touchdowns on 121 targets. However, Bourne finished last season with just 66 fewer receiving yards and 3 more touchdowns on only 67 targets. You heard that right, Bourne performed just as well as Meyers did with a little over half as many targets. Just for good measure, here is where Bourne ranked among wide receivers with at least 67 targets last season.

  • 56th, last in targets
  • 2nd in reception percentage
  • 13th in yards per reception
  • 14th in PFF hand-drops grade
  • 4th in yards after catch per reception
  • 11th in yards per route run
  • T-11th lowest drop percentage
  • 2nd in contested catch percentage
  • 1st in NFL passer rating when targeted

FantasyPros has him ranked as WR71, which makes him a late 19th to early 20th round pick. He’s ranked lower than some defenses and kickers in half PPR standings. There’s a chance he may go undrafted in many fantasy leagues. I have him ranked as WR59 but don’t be fooled I am very high on this guy.

Best Value at the Wide Receiver Position

Stefon Diggs heads up the talent at the WR position in the AFC East. According to Sleeper ADP, the Bills receiver is the #5 WR and #14 overall player. Tyreek Hill is next in line, coming in as the #7 WR and #19 overall. Whilst Cheetah has finished as a top-8 WR in four of the previous five seasons, it’s going to be interesting to see how he acclimatizes to catching passes from Tua instead of Mahomes. The two big names don’t feel like value to me. 

Instead, It’s the two players likely to be playing second-fiddle to the above studs that are drawing my interest. Jaylen Waddle broke out as a rookie with over a thousand yards and triple-digit catches. If it weren’t for the aforementioned addition of Tyreek Hill, the former Alabama speedster would have a Sleeper ADP significantly higher than WR #17 and #48 overall. Gabe Davis was a popular off-season sell after his 4-TD playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs, but I’ve been going against that tide (and have been since October 2020.) The former UCF man has a great connection with Josh Allen and is one of Allen’s favorite targets when the play breaks down or goes off-script. Davis’ route-running and body control are evident, and I expect him to smash his current WR #36 and #83 overall ADP. I like Davis to finish as a WR2 this season, given the added opportunity afforded to him without Emmanuel Sanders on the roster.

Tight End Summary

The tight end position in the AFC East is complicated and arguably the toughest division to predict the outcomes of the tight ends on each team with the current highest ADP per Fantasy Pros. In fantasy football, being able to accurately predict a player’s stat line or close to it, and using that to determine when selecting them in your drafts where it brings you the most value is one of the keys to success. Especially at a position like Tight End, where the variance of the tight ends outside of Tiers 1 and 2 is small, and can be very touchdown dependent in that range but not easy to predict. 

Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) 

Gesicki is the best tight end in the division and arguably has the most upside for his current Fantasy Pros ADP (12th). Gesicki has seen at least 85 targets each of his last 3 seasons and eclipsed 50 receptions. He set new season-high totals in targets, receptions, and yards in 2021.  If not for his regression in touchdowns, he would have been a top 5 tight end in fantasy points. Gesicki scored 2 touchdowns last year, significantly less than the 5 and 6 scores the previous two seasons. If he doesn’t score more in 2022, his current ADP is pretty spot on, and there is little room for him to far exceed it. The issue is with the addition of Tyreek Hill he’s now, at best, the number 3 option in Miami.  Meaning he is more than likely not going to see 85 targets again this season and, therefore, will need to score more touchdowns to have another top 10 season at the position.

That being said, Miami, with a new coaching staff and the addition of Hill, should improve their offense this season, and that could be good for Gesicki. However, my biggest concern comes back to his touchdowns, because even before the addition of Hill, after seeing 26% of the red zone passes in 2020, it dropped to 16% in 2021, behind Waddle at 17%. In 2022 there is a good chance both Hill and Waddle will see more passes in the red zone than Gesicki. 

Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills)

Knox was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy football last year. He was a touchdown monster, scoring 9 times, on an absurd 18% of his receptions. He’s averaged over 12 yards per reception all 3 years in the league. With Josh Allen ascending to the top of the QBs in the NFL, many believe Knox could be in store for an even bigger season in 2022, but I’m not as sure as many others. It’s hard to believe Knox will equal or eclipse the number of touchdowns he scored in 2021 this season. It’s also difficult to envision him scoring on 18% of his receptions again, especially when a potential touchdown and red zone target machine in Gabriel Davis appears to be in line for a starting role as the Number 2 WR in this potent offense. Then there is the addition of James Cook, arguably the best pass-catching back in this year’s draft class. If that’s not enough reason to pump the brakes a bit on the Knox hype train for 2022 I don’t know what is. The Bills also added the talented, but often injured OJ Howard at tight end in Free Agency. Knox currently has an ADP of 10th for Tight Ends on Fantasy Pros, which like with Gesicki, is probably about the right spot. However, I think there are several tight ends with more upside you can get later in the draft like Freiermuth. Kmet or Irv Smith Jr. 

CJ Uzomah (New York Jets)

The Jets spent their off-season giving second-year signal caller Zach Wilson plenty of new weapons. That includes Uzomah, who is coming off a very good season for the Bengals last year, but unfortunately ended the season with an injury. An injury that has him on the PUP list to start the 2022 season. He’s a complete stay away for me. I do not expect Uzomah, once he’s healthy, to see the same level of QB play from Zach Wilson as he did last season from Joe Burrow. Uzomah is not the tight end I would want on the Jets roster for your fantasy teams. That distinction goes to Tyler Conklin, their other free agent signing at the Tight End position. Unlike CJ Uzomah and rookie Jeremy Ruckert, Conklin is healthy and participating in OTA’s with Wilson. Several local reporters have said Conklin has been a frequent target in the red zone from Wilson in practices. Conklin is also coming off a breakout year with the Vikings, where he had over 60 receptions and 500 yards receiving. Conklin is currently the 33rd Tight End per Fantasy Pros, 9 spots lower than Uzomah. 

Hunter Henry (New England Patriots)

Henry is my favorite tight end per their current ADP in this division at Tight End (he’s currently 19th per Fantasy Pros). Henry’s 9 Touchdowns last season were a new career high in a season for him. Even more importantly, he stayed healthy and played a full slate of games for the first time in his 6 year career. Along with the 9 Touchdowns, he saw 75 targets, turning those targets into 50 receptions for 603 yards. Despite being in a timeshare with Jonnu Smith, Henry was far more involved in the passing game of the two and was Mac Jones’s favorite target in the red zone seeing just over 30% of the rookie QBs pass attempts inside the 20, four more than any receiver on the Pats roster. He scored on an impressive 50% of those red zone targets (all 9 of his touchdowns were in the red zone). Considering Tight Ends can be a security blanket for young signal callers makes me confident Henry will get plenty of opportunities again in 2022. However, this does not mean it’s a slam dunk that Henry has similar numbers or outperforms his numbers from last season. Prior to last season, Henry hadn’t scored more than 5 TDs since his rookie season. He also has a significant injury history, having missed 24 games over the previous 4 seasons before last year, and the addition of DeVante Parker at wide receiver could diminish his red zone targets. Finally, we can assume Bill Bellichek will be calling offensive plays with the Patriots having a committee at Offensive Coordinator, meaning the Pats will lean heavily on the run again in 2022. 

Best Value at the Tight End Position

Without a doubt, with an ADP of TE37, Tyler Conklin is the tight end to target in terms of value from the AFC East if you end up punting the TE position in your fantasy drafts.

With an impressive 105.1 NFL passer rating when targeted in 2021, Conklin was the TE18 in contested catch rate, making him on par with other tight ends such as Mike Gesiciki & Dalton Schultz in that stat. Where he REALLY excelled was in the lack of drops department. Conklin ranked only behind George Kittle with the fewest drops in the NFL at the tight end position. Being a sure-handed tight end is certainly a selling point for more targets, especially in the Red Zone, an area where Conklin was the TE9 in terms of targets in that area of the field in 2021. His completion percentage in that department was better than any other tight end’s completion percentage in the AFC East last season, and with recent reports showing during OTAs and Mini Camps that Zach Wilson and Tyler Conklin have been focusing on building a rapport in that area of the field, the TD upside is there making him a great value pick at TE in the division.

Linebacker Summary

The LB position in the AFC East isn’t exactly what I would call stacked. Yes, there are some solid LB2/3 options scattered around, but none that I would feel comfortable anchoring my lineup. In a division that has seen its fair share of coaching changes, it will be a wild ride in the AFC East.

C.J. Mosley (New York Jets)

The only LB in the AFC East that I am actively targeting across all scoring formats. Entering his age-30 season, Mosley is hoping for a repeat of the 2021 season in which he stayed healthy and played 16 games. To be fair, 2021 was the 1st full season for Mosley since joining the Jets, but prior to 2019, he had only missed a total of 3 games since joining the league in 2014.

I will never go as far as forecasting health, but I feel pretty safe assuming that Mosley will return solid value with another full season. If you take his career as a whole, Mosley has never had less than 100 tackles when playing at least 15 games. While setting 100 tackles as the floor, it is hard to ignore the 168 total tackles he registered last year in his 1st full season with the Jets. Mosley finished as the LB8 in FIF scoring and the LB6 in FantasyPros scoring, despite not recording a turnover for the 1st time in his career. Another LB1 season is well within his range of outcomes for 2022!

Jerome Baker (Miami Dolphins)

Baker is one of my more difficult LB to project, but I am optimistic that the Dolphins’ approach on defense should be similar to 2021. The reason that this is important comes down to the key separator at LB for Baker, pressures & sacks. Over the past two seasons, Baker has been 1 of just 3 LB to finish in the Top 10 in pressures and sacks (Per PFF). It is this type of production from an ILB that is really enticing for FIF scoring! In fact, Baker was nearly 2 points higher per game in FIF scoring. I go back and forth, but I am pretty confident that we won’t see a situation similar to last season when his snaps were limited during the middle of the season.

Tremaine Edmunds (Buffalo Bills)

Edmunds is quite the conundrum when it comes to opinions. Many see Edmunds as this 24-year-old blend of size and speed who continues to fill the stat sheet. The Bills fans see an LB who is mediocre in coverage and doesn’t process plays fast enough to utilize his blend of speed and size! What I see is this. I see a 24-year-old LB who just had his 5th-year option declined by the team that drafted him and is looking to earn a payday!

During his 4 years with the Bills, Edmunds has tallied 463 total tackles, 5.5 sacks, 28 passes defended, and 4 INT. In FIF scoring, Edmunds takes a little bit of a tumble due to his use in coverage, which limits his big ceiling upside. LB49 in FIF vs LB41 in Fantasy Pros scoring. Add in the fact that he has played fewer than 1,000 snaps in all but 1 season, and he is just a “blah” LB2/3 with no major upside play.

Ja’Whaun Bentley (New England Patriots)

Trying to figure out Patriots’ snap shares at LB is an equation that I don’t have the cheat sheet for. If you could guarantee 900 snaps for Bentley, I would absolutely have him in my LB3 conversation. Unfortunately for me, I look back at an uber-productive 2021 that only saw him play 691 snaps and yet put up an impressive 109 tackles (15.8 tackle%). It was this efficiency that led to a FIF scoring finish as the LB41, the 3rd highest scoring LB with >700 snaps.

Entering 2022 tho, I have my concerns with the floor of Bentley. For starters, the Patriots have been known to rotate players and formations quite often. The second is the addition of Mack Wilson. While I don’t believe Wilson to have the impact to simply take snaps away from Bentley, more so be a thorn in his side and limit the snap ceiling. Wilson, like Bentley, was very efficient with his snaps. I, personally, don’t see the Patriots giving up Winovich without intending to play Wilson in some capacity.

Quincy Williams (New York Jets)

Quincy Williams’ name could be one of the more spoken names in IDP circles, and it might be a name that isn’t familiar. For starters, he finished the season in FIF scoring as the LB26, and the LB22 in FP in total points. Seeing as how Williams came out of nowhere last year after being waived by the Jags, it is not surprising to see his stock on the rise. If you are lucky enough to play in a Sleeper league, Williams has DB eligibility, which is the cheat code of IDP. For example, Williams would have finished as the DB4 in FIF scoring, and the DB3 in FP scoring.

Williams has the speed and tenacity to continue earning playing time for the Jets, but I am not entirely sold yet due to the peaks and valleys types of weeks that he had last year. What I do like about him tho is the speed I highlighted earlier. It is this type of speed that could manifest itself and turn the 2 sacks last year into 4 or more this year. One should also pay attention to the 9 TFL (19th among LB), which should help support his scoring floor.

Matt Milano (Buffalo Bills)

Milano is a very sneaky LB option for the upcoming season. Last year was very opportunistic for the young LB entering his 6th season with the Bills. After missing the majority of 2020, he came back strong and played 16 games in 2021. As a result, he had his 2nd highest tackle season (85) and a career-high 13 tackles for loss.

So what should we expect out of Matt Milano in the 2022 season? He is the guaranteed starter alongside Tremaine Edmunds, and after signing a 4-year extension, he isn’t going anywhere. The depth at LB in Buffalo leaves a lot to be desired, but the starters across the defensive line are excellent. This depth at DL should help clear the path for Milano, and really produce chaos for opposing offensive lines.

Best Value at the Linebacker Position

With an ADP on Sleeper of LB36 and LB26 on ESPN, the answer is Quincy Williams in terms of value at the LB position. As Nate mentioned earlier Williams broke out in a big way with the Jets in 2021. In his first stint playing 16 games in a season and as the 1B to C.J. Mosley’s 1A, Williams tallied 110 total tackles (72 solo/38 assisted) with a tackling efficiency of 12.8%, according to Pro Football Reference data. While some people will like to point this out as an anomaly, let’s remember that the Jets did not address the linebacker position in free agency or during the NFL draft in any meaningful sense. That means Williams has a clear path to snaps in 2022, and with a season at full health, there isn’t a reason why he shouldn’t see another 100 tackle season. In Fantasy In Frames IDP scoring, Williams averaged 13.6 PPG in 2021, and in Fantasy Pros scoring he averaged 12.1 PPG. Regardless of scoring format, Williams can certainly live up to the LB2 upside he displayed last season. For those on the Sleeper app, him having a dual designation as a defensive back certainly makes him a more attractive ADP value at the position.

Defensive Back Summary

We may not have seen a ton of exciting names at DL or at LB in the AFC East, but the DB room has some seriously good values for your IDP drafts. Let’s take a look at how they stack up!

Kyle Duggar (New England Patriots)

Last year’s DB27 in FIF scoring is looking to greatly improve on that finish from last year. Despite the DB27 finish, there were positive signs everywhere that a breakout could be on the horizon. In the 15 games that he played last year, Dugger recorded 92 tackles (5 for loss), 5 PD and 4 INT. According to PFF, Dugger also saw his overall defensive grade improve from 64 up into the 70’s! Maybe the most exciting area of Dugger’s game is the production with such limited snaps. Dugger was the DB27, despite only logging 733 snaps! I think it is safe to assume an increase in snaps, which almost guarantees an improvement in scoring from last year. If you take his average of nearly .25 fantasy points per snap and increase his snap share by 20% (733 to 879), his projections would have placed him as the DB6!

Jordan Poyer (Buffalo Bills)

I’m not sure there is anything else that needs to be said about Jordan Poyer. For the 5th straight season, Poyer has recorded 90+ tackles, 2+ INT, 4+ TFL, and at least 1 sack. Last year was down by tackle standards, but he made up for it with by matching a career-high 5 INT and setting a new career high with 3 sacks. Poyer’s finish as the DB5 is about where we all anticipate him finishing this year. His ceiling all comes down to the turnovers, and his floor is stabilized by his tackle numbers and box snaps. About as “safe” as they come.

Jordan Whitehead (New York Jets)

Jordan Whitehead has one of the most important motivators pushing him this year, a poor Madden rating. Yes, Jordan Whitehead enters the 2022 season with a rating of 77, making him one of the lowest-rated safeties in the game. This score is actually lower than his previous year’s rating, and completely unwarranted. In 2021, Whitehead nearly matched a career-high in tackles, despite only playing 14 games. Add in the 2 INT, 5 TFL, and a PFF rating as the 7th best run-stopping Safety, and he should feel snubbed.

Realistically for 2022, Whitehead is in a prime opportunity to succeed and return excellent value for IDP managers. The Jets have consistently developed great DBs for IDP scoring. We should expect to see a decent bump in snaps for the hard-hitting safety, and in turn, can expect a solid finish with DB2 upside! Just last year, on a per-game basis, Whitehead was the DB33, with plenty of talent on the TB defense.

Brandon Jones (Miami Dolphins)

Jones is an intriguing IDP option entering 2022. For starters, he and fellow Safety, Jevon Holland, both ranked in the Top 5 among S in pressures and QB hits. These stats are important because in FIF scoring, the QB hit is integral. Yes, you guessed it, both S finished as DB3 or better. If you look at a per-game basis, Jones was a borderline DB2.

I have Jones currently as my DB20, and a lot of that has to do with the propensity of the blitz via Miami Safeties. Despite only playing 622 snaps last year, Jones made an impact all over the field. He was 2nd among DB in tackle% (500 snaps minimum), 8th in Solo tackle% (500 snaps minimum), and 1st in sacks (5). Look for Jones to again be undervalued in drafts and swoop in as your DB3 with a very safe floor.

Best Value at the Defensive Back Position

In terms of value for DBs in the AFC East, with a ranking of the DB56 on Sleeper and the DB48 on ESPN, for me, the answer is Brandon Jones. Now, I say this with the caveat that he is a value pick when using Fantasy In Frames IDP scoring, which you should all use because it’s awesome. One of the reasons why it’s awesome is because it helps reward pressure on a QB by assigning fantasy points to QB Hits. In 2021, his 10 QB hits were the most by a DB on the season, and with the retaining of defensive coordinator Josh Boyer and his blitz-heavy scheme in how he uses his safeties, Jones is in a position to at least reach his ceiling from 2021 in 2022. To read more about Jones, check out my dynasty target article I wrote on him by clicking here.

Defensive Lineman/EDGE Summary

While the AFC East is limited with high-end LB options for IDP, the number of edge rushers/DL is even more scarce.  This isn’t to say that there aren’t any options, I just don’t have too many “must-start” options to recommend.

Matt Judon (New England Patriots)

When using FIF scoring, there might not be a better option at DL than Matt Judon in the AFC East.  Judon was brought over to the Patriots in hopes of breathing some life into a pass-rush that was near the bottom in sacks and pressures in 2020.  During his time with Baltimore, Judon had shown an ability to get to the QB, evidenced by his 54 QB hits across the 2019-2020 seasons.  While he hadn’t previously topped double-digit sacks, 2021 saw him register 12.5!  In addition to the 12.5 sacks, his 25 QB hits were 10th among all defensive players in 2021!

In some formats, Judon is LB only, but in leagues that count him among the DL, the value is tremendous.  If you were to isolate his positions, he would have finished as the LB22 in FIF scoring, but he would have been the DL6.  This is why you always must know your league-specific position eligibilities!

Jaelen Phillips (Miami Dolphins)

Last year, only 1 rookie had more sacks than Jaelen Phillips, and that was the great Micah Parsons.  While it may have been the rookie season for Phillips, he demonstrated veteran-like pass-rushing skills over the 2nd half of the season.  During that time, he recorded 7 of his 8.5 sacks during a 5-game stretch.  

Phillips has the size, speed, and edge rush ability to take that next step among the great edge-rushers in the NFL.  The question that many will have will revolve around the potential changes to the Flores defense that is now being overseen by Josh Boyer.  Similar to Matt Judon will be the specific position eligibility for Phillips.  Last year he finished as LB65 in FIF scoring but would have been the DL21.  If Phillips takes the next step into double-digit sacks as well as double-digit TFL, he could easily be one of the elite DL options for 2022

Emmanuel Ogbah (Miami Dolphins)

Ogbah is probably one of our biggest variance players when it comes to our rankings at Fantasy In Frames.  For starters, it’s hard to envision a situation in which Ogbah generates 12 passes defended from the DE position.  This isn’t to say that he won’t record his fair share, considering he led all DL and LB in the category.  Another item to monitor is if your particular scoring rubric counts QB hits.  In FIF scoring, Ogbah takes another step forward with his ability to get to QB.  Ogbah’s 24 QB hits were good for 7th among DLs, a step forward from the 21 he registered in 2020.  These accolades led to a FIF finish of DL7 and a DL16 in Fantasy Pros. 

While I may be a little lower in my initial rankings than others, it is fair to say that Ogbah has the ability and team fit to produce another DL1/DL2 season under Josh Boyer.  Ogbah is looking to join the great Jason Taylor as the only other Dolphin to have 9 sacks or more in 3 or more seasons.  

Von Miller (Buffalo Bills)

What is there that is left to be said about Von Miller?  He had a storied career with the Denver Broncos, culminating in nearly 500 tackles and 110 sacks.  He was traded to the Super Bowl Champion Rams mid-season, and then, at the age of 33, signed a 6-year contract with the Buffalo Bills.  

Even at the age of 33, Von Miller showed last year that he still has plenty of gas in the tank.  For the 9th time in 10 years, he eclipsed the 8-sack mark.  More notably may be the 19 TFL, which matched his 2nd best total during his illustrious career.  As is the overarching theme with most of these edge rushers is the position tag benefits.  Last year, Miller finished as the LB50 but would have been the DL15.  

The real thing to pay attention to will be the rotation of DL/Edge rushers in Buffalo.  For a team that is destined to make a long run into the playoffs, they know that a solid rotation and health is the key to success.  If Miller gets lost in the shuffle (I can think of $120M reasons he won’t), there is reason to fade him at his ADP potentially.

Christian Wilkins (Miami Dolphins)

Yes, there are a handful of Dolphins that are making this list, but rightfully so.  If you just take a look at his DL9 finish from 2021, you know the potential is there for significant value!  Last year, only Cameron Heyward had as many tackles as Wilkins among DLs.  In fact, since 2020, Wilkins is 2nd in Solo tackles among DL.  

My concern with Wilkins comes down to the lack of sacks that you would really like to have in your DL.  His 4.5 sacks last year were a career-high, and I don’t see that rising considerably, due to his mediocre pressure %.  The one thing to note is that while many DL vary between FIF and FantasyPros scoring, Wilkins is pretty similar since the majority of his points come via tackle volume.  

Best Value at the Defensive Lineman/EDGE Position

With a Sleeper ADP of the DL56 and ESPN ADP of DL66, the value to chase here is that of Emmanuel Ogbah. In Fantasy In Frames IDP scoring, Ogbah ranked as the DL13 on the season, averaging 11.6 PPG. Again one of the perks of our scoring format is the reward of pressures in the way of QB Hits. According to PREF data, on 39 total pressures last season, Ogbah posted 24 QB hits and 9 sacks on the season. Compare this to Fantasy Pros IDP scoring, which had him as the DL23 averaging 7.7 PPG, it’s easy to see in either scoring setting you’re still getting DL2 value in performance at a very low ADP.

Thanks for reading our Fantasy Football Preview of the AFC East.

Now go out there and crush your fantasy football drafts!

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Photo of Team Fantasy In Frames Team Fantasy In Frames Send an email July 24, 2022
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