Dynasty Fallers at Running Back (2022)

February 8, 2022 Tyler Heil

Today, we continue our Risers and Fallers series looking at the dynasty fallers at running back heading into the 2022 fantasy football season!

In the corporate world, you can get in a lot of trouble for not considering qualified candidates based on age. Fortunately, Dynasty Fantasy Football is not the corporate world and we can be as aggressively ageist as we please. You will notice a theme in the running back fallers, and it is when you start to hit 26 as a running back your value plummets as though Mark Zuckerberg tried to rebrand them.

Unfortunately for a lot of these players, they are not going to be able to turn back the clock and the timer on their contracts is about to go boom.

On the other side of the age coin, is talent. Two of the running backs I will cover went into the 2021 season with great opportunity and showed the whole world that they simply don’t have what it takes.

Aaron Jones

Don’t get me wrong, Aaron Jones still has some value, but his stock began to fall little by little from the kickoff of the 2021 season. Jones turned 27 in December and as time dictates will turn 28 this coming December. Some might argue that Aaron Jones just signed a 4 year $48mm deal before the beginning of last season. However, you have to look a little further into the contract structure as only 27% of his contract is fully guaranteed ($13mm). What that means is Aaron Jones only has one year left on his deal because in 2023 he carries a cap hit of $19.25mm and a dead cap hit of only $6.5MM and will result in a cap savings of $12.75MM when (not if) the Packers decide to release him prior to the 2023 season. No team is going to carry a $20MM dollar cap hit for a running back barring that player being the entire offense and his name being Derrick Henry. All of this means Aaron Jones will be a 28-year-old free agent at running back with well over 1000 career touches on his odometer.

The other and perhaps bigger part of Aaron Jones’ stock falling is the existence of AJ Dillon. Dillon showed through the 2021 season that he is a more than capable back in both the running game and surprisingly the passing game, averaging 1.7 more yards per reception than Aaron Jones. In the back half of the season, the Packers pivoted in their running back usage giving Dillon more and more opportunities. However, the Packers still leaned on Jones in their lone playoff game signaling that he is still the lead back in this backfield, however, he is going to be more of a 1A to Dillon’s 1B rather than a 1 to a 2 allowing Jones to still have some value for competing teams in 2022. If you are not a sure-fire competitor you should be actively trying to deal Jones before free agency kicks off, and keep in mind his value is not what it used to be. According to the Frames Crew’s rankings on FantasyinFrames.com Jones clocks in as the dynasty running back 22.

Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott brings yet another massive cap hit with him into the 2022 season ($18.2MM) and with his gaudy dead cap number ($30.08MM) he is guaranteed a spot on the Cowboys roster for this upcoming season. However, similarly to Aaron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott presents a cap savings opportunity going into the 2023 season for the Cowboys, though not as large a savings as Jones ($4.86MM savings if he were cut prior to the 2023 season). With the cap expected to rise yet again in 2023 and the Cowboys’ other cap savings opportunities, there is still a sliver of hope he remains on the team in 2023. Zeke is entering his age 27 season (will turn 27 on 7/22) and will very early on in the 2022 season eclipse 2,000 career touches after we already saw some signs of degradation in his quality of play in the 2021 season.

Like Aaron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott has another running back behind him that is very talented and his name is Tony Pollard. The Cowboys did not show the willingness the Packers did to pivot to their backup having a more prominent role with Zeke out touching Pollard in all but two games. The big difference between Jones v Dillon and Zeke v Pollard is the efficiency numbers. Jones showed for most of the season that he was the more efficient back, Zeke on the other hand was not even close to as efficient as Pollard was. The difference was so stark in fact, that Pollard averaged more yards per opportunity in all but two games that they played together, and in those two games where Zeke outplayed him it was by a hair (0.4 and 0.1 more YPO). Zeke could be helpful to your dynasty team in 2022 due to the loyalty that the Cowboys (see. Jerry Jones) have shown him. However, that is a very risky proposition due to the fact that at this point in their respective careers Tony Pollard simply looks like the better player. Zeke had a massive fall from grace after his inefficient 2021, moving from the RB5 in Fantasy Pros ADP all the way down to the dynasty RB24 according to the Frames Crew’s rankings.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

You win some, you lose some, and unfortunately for the Chiefs, it looks like they are taking the L on their 2020 first-round pick. Two years into his career CEH has not shown to be a very durable back appearing in just 23 of 39 possible games, and in those 23 games has been underwhelming. Players are allowed more than a year to develop, however with the short shelf life of the running back position in the NFL you have to perform sooner rather than later. 2021 was quite the indictment on his ability due to the fact that CEH came into the league as a highly touted receiving back garnering comparisons to Brian Westbrook from the Chief’s front office. Darrel Williams far outperformed him in the receiving game averaging 9.6 yards per reception with more than twice the amount of targets to Edwards-Helaire’s 6.8 yards per reception. Furthermore, when the rubber hit the road in the playoffs and the games really mattered the Chiefs chose to lean on oft-injured veteran journeyman Jerick Mckinnon awarding him 51 total opportunities in the playoffs to Edwards-Helaire’s meager 17 (he missed the first game of the playoffs due to injury).

However, there is a bright side to Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s value. He is still a very young back (23 on 4/11) who is attached to one of the best offenses in football with Pat Mahomes under center. He is also locked into the Chiefs for a minimum of two more years, three more years in the increasingly unlikely event that they pick up his fifth-year option before the start of the 2023 season. Unfortunately, those upsides don’t diminish the fact that he went from being the majority 1.01 in rookie drafts due to his landing spot, to the RB14 in 2021 according to Fantasy Pros consensus ADP, and finally landing at the RB20 spot according to the Frames Crew’s rankings.

Myles Gaskin

Myles Gaskin is unlike the other three on this list as he was never a hopeful top 12 running back, however, he was the de facto starting RB on the Miami Dolphins, a team with real aspirations of making the playoffs in 2021 after just missing out on the seven seed in 2020. For the second offseason in a row the Dolphins elected not to make any real investment at the running back position, instead opting to show faith in the 2019 seventh-round pick as their lead back. Gaskin had a promising 2020 averaging 4.1 ypc behind a putrid offensive line and a robust 9.5 yard per reception, enough to make him the consensus RB21 in 2021 according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Gaskin went on to show the faith the Dolphins had in him was unfounded, averaging the worst yard per carry mark of his career with 3.5 and a terrible 4.8 yard per reception. Gaskin was so bad for most of the season that the Dolphins opted to bring in the ever underrated Duke Johnson (I’m not a truther, YOU ARE!) in the middle of the season who went on to blow Gaskin’s doors off and start for the Dolphins down the stretch totaling 353 yards from scrimmage in their final 4 games.

Gaskin has gone from the starter and a solid RB2 to borderline droppable in dynasty leagues in the span of one season. I would suggest you get what you can for him in a trade but unfortunately, the cat is out of the bag on Gaskin’s ability, or lack thereof, which landed him at the RB39 spot, quite generous in my opinion, in the Frames Crew’s dynasty rankings.

(Dis)Honorable Mentions:

Melvin Gordon and Chris Carson

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros
About Tyler Heil 24 Articles
Director of Dynasty Content. I’m a numbers and spreadsheets geek (A freak in the (excel) sheets, some might say) that wanted to share my obsession with others. In 2021 Fantasy In Frames gave me that opportunity, and now my main hobby is helping others get a more holistic and detailed viewpoint on the games we all love. Football and Fantasy Football.
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