Today, we continue our Risers and Fallers series looking at the Dynasty Fallers at Quarterback following the 2021 fantasy football season!
Do you all remember that scene in The Dark Knight Rises when they’re on the plane and one of the mercenaries asks Bane, “Have we started the fire?” and Bane responds, “Yes, the fire RISES!”
No?
Let this gif remind you of it…
Such a great movie about rising to overcome challenges.
The dynasty values of the quarterbacks I’m about to talk about, on the other hand, did the OPPOSITE of rising up to meet challenges during the 2021 fantasy football season.
Let’s see how far these guys dropped off from startup draft expectations this past year as well as how far we expect them to fall after the 2021 season.
Ryan Tannehill
Having back-to-back season finishes as a Top-12 QB in fantasy certainly had me and others raving about what could be in store for Tannehill’s future at the position following the 2020 season. Add in the addition of Julio Jones in the offseason and all of a sudden, combined with A.J. Brown, this offense along with Derrick Henry had the makings of being one of the very best in the league.
An injury-plagued season with Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, and A.J. Brown missing between 5-9 games on the season amongst the three of them later and I’m rather impressed Tannehill finished as high as he did in terms of fantasy productivity. That being said finishing with an average of 16.6 PPG and recency bias being what it is no wonder a lot of people might be jumping off of the Tannehill bandwagon. Combine that with the last time people saw Tannehill play they saw him chuck up 3 INTs in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, most people will look at his QB16 finish in PPG combined with his playoff loss and immediately think, ” I can do better than Tannehill” in their startup drafts.
It is THAT type of thinking that will push down his value probably into the low-end QB2 range. Unfortunately, this also makes his market value not exactly high so consider him a solid hold on your rosters for now.
Baker Mayfield
Week 5: 23-32 passing attempts for 305 yards, 2 TDs, and 23 fantasy points.
That was Mayfield’s best week of the 2021 fantasy football season in a blowout loss versus the Chargers. The rest of his fantasy performances on the season were so bad that they lowered his PPG average to 13.8 PPG.
So much for Mayfield capitalizing off of his late-season surge in 2020.
Now, yes I know Mayfield was playing hurt all season with basically one shoulder, literally, and that should give him a pass on the season. However, let’s think about this:
OBJ is gone.
Jarvis Landry is likely to be cut prior to June 1st in order to save $15 million in cap space for the team.
Mayfield still remains on a team with an offensive philosophy that is predicated on running the ball.
He has a front office that might be starting to lose faith in the QB.
All of a sudden the upside that caused Mayfield’s value to rise after the 2020 season has come crashing down to the point that even in 2QB or SuperFlex leagues Mayfield might still sit on the waiver wire or bench of a team in your league. Unless the Browns do some major re-tooling at the receiver position, Mayfield’s value might be permanently lowered during his time in Cleveland.
Russell Wilson
32 rushing yards per game. That’s what Russell Wilson was averaging in 2020.
In 2019, it was 21.3.
2018? 23.5
This past year in 2021, 13.1.
Honestly speaking, a team’s quarterback shouldn’t be expected to use their legs to keep them in games. That’s what running backs are for, and in 2021 Seattle did everything they could to create a balanced offense. That being the case Wilson was able to cut back on his rushing attempts per game while maintaining his efficiency in the passing game. However, another MAJOR change to Wilson’s performance this past season was that he didn’t have as many passing yards per game as compared to other seasons. His 222 yards per game were his lowest output since 2018 when he averaged 18.7 PPG. Now, last time I checked fewer rushing and passing yards per game isn’t exactly the recipe for top-level fantasy success.
Look, I’m not saying Wilson’s dynasty value took a HUGE drop after this season, but you must really ask yourselves is he a sure-fire, locked and loaded Top-12 QB if he remains in Seattle now that they apparently don’t demand as much of him anymore? I’m not so sure he is which is why I have him outside of my Top-12 for the first time ever. If anything he gives me that “I could draft him now…but I’d rather grab a better value later” vibe going forward in startup drafts.
