Favorable Running Back Matchups for Week 4 (2021)

Photo of Jonathan Klonowski Jonathan Klonowski Follow on X Send an email October 2, 2021
3 minutes read

The week 3 matchup piece was a little mixed.

On the positive side, we did see a bounce-back performance from Saquon Barkley in which he rushed for 51 yards and a touchdown, with a further 43 yards from six receptions (seven targets). He has now played in over 80% of snaps over the last two weeks and the promising usage in the passing game should mean continued fantasy success. This week’s game against a stout New Orleans defense, however, is a much tougher matchup.

On the other hand, Ty’Son Williams looked set for a huge performance against the Lions in a game most expected the Ravens to dominate. Williams unexpectedly only saw five rushing attempts, with Latavius Murray seeing seven attempts and Devonta Freeman receiving three. After seeing this usage, Williams should be benched until we have further clarity.

And so to week 4…

Jonathan Taylor (@ MIA)

After a blockbuster end to 2020, Jonathan Taylor’s form has quite carried through into this season just yet. Taylor is yet to rush for more than 65 yards and is yet to score a touchdown. Some of his peripheral numbers, however, point to an uptick in the near future. Taylor has seen six rushes inside the five-yard line this season, which ranks first in the NFL but is yet to find the end zone. This comes after scoring 11 times on the ground last season and we so should expect a natural regression to the mean.

Taylor faces the Miami Dolphins this coming week, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs so far this year. The team has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards in the league this season, including allowing veteran Peyton Barber to rush for over 100 yards last week. Expect a bounce-back game this week.

Najee Harris (@ GB)

Rookie Najee Harris recorded an astonishing 14 receptions for 102 yards against the Bengals last week, the most catches seen in a game across the league this season. Without Big Ben’s favorite target Diontae Johnson, Harris was the focal point of the passing game with 19 targets. Roethlisberger’s average depth of target fell to 7.6 last season, the lowest of his career according to PFF, and stands at 7.0 through the first three games meaning Harris is likely to remain a key target. While his work on the ground is yet to flourish, if his usage in the passing game continues, he will remain a solid fantasy option. Although Diontae Johnson returned to practice in a limited fashion this week, Juju Smith-Schuster is day-to-day with a rib injury. If either player is limited on Sunday, expect another strong performance for Harris in the passing game against a fairly average Packers defense.

David Montgomery (vs DET)

David Montgomery was a victim of Matt Nagy’s bizarre gameplan against the Browns last week, accumulating just 34 yards on the ground from ten rushing attempts and adding a further 21 yards from two receptions (four targets). After an impressive first week, the third-year running back has now registered fewer than 10 points in half-PPR scoring in his last two weeks. This upcoming matchup against the Detroit Lions, however, promises to be better. Through the first three weeks, the Lions have allowed the third-most points to running backs in half-PPR scoring, according to FantasyData. One promising aspect has been his continued usage in the passing game, continuing on from a strong showing last season in which he saw 4+ targets in nine games (including week 17). This season Montgomery has seen four targets in his last two games.

Zack Moss (vs HOU)

If you’d told me a couple of weeks ago I’d be writing about how Zack Moss was in a good potential matchup, I’d be wondering what alternate universe I’d landed on. The sophomore running back was a surprise healthy scratch in week 1 but has since bounced back and enjoyed a strong outing in week 3. Moss rushed 13 times for 60 yards, adding a further 31 yards and a touchdown from three receptions.

While it is clearly a small sample size, it is promising to see Moss’ receiving work increase this year. In 2020 he only saw two or more targets in five games, something which he has achieved in both of his games this season. Moss now faces the Houston Texans in a game Buffalo are huge favorites and should control from the beginning. The Texans have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to running backs this year, according to FantasyData, and have already allowed six rushing touchdowns. If you’ve been hit by injuries in recent weeks, Moss could be a useful option this week.

Photo of Jonathan Klonowski Jonathan Klonowski Follow on X Send an email October 2, 2021
3 minutes read
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