Favorable Running Back Matchups for Week 1 (2021)
Each week, Fantasy In Frames will help you delve into the most favorable running-back matchups.
After a plethora of injuries throughout the off-season, I think it’s safe to say that we’re all ready for week 1. The four players below present fantasy managers with some intriguing matchups in the opening week.
James Robinson (@HOU)
The most scrimmage yards (1,414) by an undrafted rookie in NFL history.
— NFL (@NFL) February 19, 2021
Remember the name James Robinson. ✍️@Robinson_jamess | @Jaguars pic.twitter.com/wKrAA9tCDA
Following Travis Etienne’s devastating season-ending injury, last year’s fantasy MVP is in a situation to flourish once again in 2021. Robinson’s success last year was driven by sky-high volume, with the undrafted free agent seeing almost all the running back work last season – both on the ground and through the air. This overcame the fact that Jacksonville recorded the joint-fourth fewest rushing yards and second-fewest rushing touchdowns. The introduction of first overall pick Trevor Lawrence will help the offense as a whole and should give plenty more opportunities for Robinson to produce.
And there will be no better opportunity than this week’s matchup when they face the Houston Texans. After losing JJ Watt from an already below-average defensive front, the Texans will be one of the most favorable running-back matchups again this coming season. The team gave up the second-most fantasy points to running backs last season and it’s hard to imagine them improving at all on that standing this year given the team’s current chaotic situation. This week, expect Robinson to carry on where he left off last year.
Raheem Mostert/Trey Sermon (@DET)
As heavy favorites this week against the Detroit Lions, the 49ers running backs look set to have a huge week. The game script is in their favor given that San Francisco is currently 7.5 point favorites for their opening game this Sunday. Detroit allowed the most fantasy points to running backs in the league last season and now faces one of the league’s most efficient rushing schemes. The Lions allowed 2,108 rushing yards last season, the fifth-most in the league, while opposing teams scored 27 rushing touchdowns, the most in the league last year.
After an injury-plagued season last year, Raheem Mostert looks set to assume the lead-back role once again. The veteran only played in eight games last season, yet rushed for at least 50 yards in six of those. As long as he’s healthy Mostert will remain a shrewd flex option, and this week’s matchup is as good as it gets.
Although Mostert is the team’s likely starter, Sermon is also a worthy flex play this week given the matchup. If the 49ers are well ahead in the second half, it would not be a surprise to see Sermon given a sizeable workload.
Ty’Son Williams (@LV)
Yet more crushing injury news. Gus Edwards was in line for a huge season as the team’s lead back following J.K. Dobbins’ injury before he himself went down. Now after a solid preseason, undrafted free agent Ty’Son Williams is the best bet to take advantage of this week’s enticing matchup.
The game sees Baltimore as a 4.5-point favorite, meaning there should be a positive game script for Williams on the league’s most run-heavy team last season. The Ravens rushed for over 3,000 yards last season, more just under 400 yards more than any other team, and were the most efficient rushing offense in the league with an average of 5.5 yards per attempt. On Monday the team faces the Raiders who allowed the fourth-most points to running backs last season in half-PPR scoring, according to FantasyData. This included giving up at least 20 points to RBs in nine of their 15 matchups during the regular fantasy season. The team allowed a total of 2,013 rushing yards last season, the ninth-most in the league, whilst opponents scored 24 rushing touchdowns, the joint-second most. Questions remain over Las Vegas’ run defense and it should be a favorable matchup for running backs once again this coming year.
Chase Edmonds (@TEN)
In what is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week, Cardinals running back Chase Edmonds presents fantasy managers with plenty of PPR upside this coming week. Edmonds enjoyed the best year of his short career last season, rushing 97 times for 448 yards and a touchdown. He added a further 402 receiving yards and four touchdowns from 53 receptions (67 targets). This represented the seventh-most receptions amongst running backs in the league last season. It remains to be seen how the running backs are utilized around the goal-line, something Edmonds has rarely done in the league, although we should expect Kyler Murray to take a significant chunk of this work. However, given Tennesee’s recent defensive struggles I would expect this to be a back-and-forth high-scoring game. There should therefore still be plenty of opportunities for Edmonds to contribute both on the ground and, more importantly, through the air this weekend.