4-EYED OFFENSIVE TEAM PREVIEW: LOS ANGELES RAMS (2021)

July 25, 2021 Jeremy Knobel

Continuing our 4-EYED TEAM PREVIEW SERIES with another NFC West team, the Los Angeles Rams! First, we’re talking offense and later today we’ll be releasing our IDP outlook. So stay tuned!

After a disappointing loss to the Packers in the postseason, Head Coach Sean McVay decided a change in QB was necessary, bringing in veteran Matthew Stafford and sending Jared Goff to Detroit. So what does that mean for Stafford and the rest of the Rams offense? And does the unfortunate season-ending injury to Cam Akers catapult Darrell Henderson into a top-tier running back?

Find out below in our 2021 Rams 4-EYED Team Preview!

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford

To say that Matthew Stafford likes to throw the ball is an understatement. Over the past 10 years, he has only failed to hit 4,000 passing years in a season twice. And in one of those two seasons he was on pace for 5,000 yards before being injured in Week 8. True, Stafford was often put in a position to throw the ball with (1) lackluster running back talent and (2) negative game scripts in which Detroit was playing from behind. But Jared Goff actually had 365 more passing attempts than Stafford over the past three years. Even accounting for Stafford’s eight games missed in 2019, it shows McVay is more than willing to let his QB sling the ball around. And Stafford can do it more effectively, averaging 8.4 air yards per pass attempt (vs Goff’s 7.5 air yards/attempt) over the past three years. In a highly efficient offensive scheme under Coach McVay, Stafford should see plenty of opportunity to amass fantasy points even with a top-tier defense that will keep the Rams competitive in every game.

Running Backs

Darrell Henderson

The first big “winner” of the preseason is Darrell Henderson. With break-out star Cam Akers rupturing his achilles, Darrell Henderson is thrust into the lead back role. Even in a partial role last season, Henderson shined. In 2020, he played in 13 games (same as Akers), rushed for 624 yards (1 fewer yard than Akers) and 5 touchdowns (3 more than Akers), and caught 16 balls on 24 targets for 159 receiving yards (all more than Akers). Henderson also averaged comparable rushing yards before contact (2.5 yards vs. Akers’ 2.2 yards) and after contact (2.0 yards vs. Akers’ 2.1 yards). So why isn’t Akers a locked in borderline 1st/2nd round pick in your draft? We’re still waiting to see if the Rams bring in a veteran back to share the workload or mix in 2nd-year back Xavier Jones or rookie back Jake Funk. But even if they do, it’s hard to see Henderson having a smaller role than he did last year. If he’s still available in the late 2nd/early 3rd round of your draft, pick Henderson with confidence to be a high ceiling and high floor RB2.

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods

We told you months ago in our 4-EYED SLEEPER series that Bobby Trees is somehow still being undervalued as he enters his ninth NFL season. In his five years with McVay and the Rams, Woods has averaged 8.4 yards per target, which pairs nicely with Stafford’s 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Woods also has the potential to reel in deep passes. In 2018, Woods averaged 11.4 yards per target. Last year with Goff struggling to throw the ball, Woods’ average depth of target was nearly halved to 6.7 yards. With an average draft position of late 4th/early 5th round, Woods still serves as a great steady WR2 value with WR1 upside.

Cooper Kupp

It’s rare to find two wide receivers on the same team with WR1 potential being drafted in the middle rounds. Like Woods, Kupp hovers around the 1,000 yard receiving mark each season. Although Kupp’s average depth of target skews lower than Woods (8.4, 7.2 and 6.0 yards in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively), Kupp is a TD and redzone threat. Last year was Kupp’s first year catching fewer than 5 TDs, dropping from 10 TDs in 2019 to 3 TDs in 2020. Yet another area where you would expect the addition of Stafford will bring back the upside. With an average draft position right around Robert Woods, feel free to snag whichever drops further.

Van Jefferson

Despite Goff’s poor performance last year, Jefferson showed some great potential. Averaging 10.2 yards per target, the then-rookie wideout flashed playing on the outside and in the slot. However, Jefferson played 50%+ of snaps in only one game. With the departure of Gerald Everett, perhaps the Rams will move away from two-tight end sets and have three wide receivers on the field more often. Jefferson is a great flyer to take at the end of your draft.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee

Now we move to the biggest beneficiary of Everett’s departure: Mr. I Heart Higbees. Splitting targets with Everett, Higbee had a depressed 2020 season, only catching 521 yards on 60 targets and 5 TDs. Still, Higbee had a healthy 5.4 yards after catch per reception, showing his ability to continue moving the ball down the field. By comparison, Travis Kelce had 5.6 yards after catch per reception in 2020. Currently going in the 12th round of fantasy drafts, Higbee is a sneaky late-TE option.