4-EYED TEAM PREVIEW: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2021)
We’re continuing our 4-EYED TEAM PREVIEW SERIES with our first AFC West team, the Kansas City Chiefs! First, we’re talking offense and later today we’ll be releasing our IDP outlook. So stay tuned!
The Kansas City Chiefs were on the precipice of greatness until they met their greatest obstacle, a defense that could take advantage of the Chiefs’ biggest weakness. What was that weakness? The offensive line.
Well, the offensive line has been addressed in both Free Agency as well as the NFL Draft, and the Chiefs are ready to face their obstacles. The trade for Orlando Brown, the signing of Joe Thuney, and the drafting of Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith have made this position of weakness, an area of strength for 2021/2022. While there have been some small changes with KC from last year to now, namely Sammy Watkins’ departure, the core of the leagues’ top-rated offense returns. In addition to the core pieces, the Chiefs went out and signed Jerick McKinnon for RB depth, and drafted rookies Cornell Powell and Noah Gray, to supplement the WR’s and TEs.
Going into 2021, the outlook is nothing short of positive for the Chiefs. Last years’ #1 team in Total Yards, 1st Downs, and Passing Yards, the Chiefs are primed to produce plenty of league-winning players.
So let’s take a look at who those players consist of below in our 2021 Chiefs 4-EYED Offensive Team Preview!
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes
The consensus #1 QB per FantasyPros ADP, and rightfully so. Since 2018, Mahomes has had finishes of QB1, QB6, and QB2 in Fantasy Points per Game. It is this type of consistency that can make you buck the traditional “late-round” approach that many of us have adopted over the past half-decade. While being the model of consistency, since 2019, Mahomes has finished as a QB1 in 20 of 29 games played in the regular season (68%).
If the plan is to provide consistent ADP return on investment, few are capable of the elite ceiling and titanium-lined floor that Mahomes provides. Add in the fact that his offensive line is improved ten-fold, which should reduce the amounts of hits taken and scrambling for more yards in a game than he had all year, and you have an easy choice if you decide to go QB early.
Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
It is safe to say that CEH was a letdown, in terms of ADP and hype. But is it fair? While I, for one, did believe that he carried the potential to be a 1st round pick, the fact that he was drafted as high Top 3 was crazy. Hell, I even wrote about why I thought he was worthy of a 1st round pick. You can read it here. All of that aside, I believe that last years’ letdown, can be an amazing buying opportunity this year. While he did finish the season as the RB22, it was his early-season work that leads to optimism. Through the 1st 10 weeks of the season, he was a low-end RB1, despite only having 3 TDs. In fact, it was the lack of RedZone attempts that definitely lowered that ceiling we all coveted. CEH ranked 21st among RB in RedZone touches. Of all RB with >700yds rushing, he was last among all of them with only 4 TD.
So why should we be excited to draft CEH this year? First of all, his overall ADP has dropped into the 3rd round (ADP:28/RB18). The additional intrigue that he brings is that he is clearly on a high-powered offense, but with just a 2.3 TD%, there is bound to be some positive regression. As mentioned above, the improved O-Line not only will help keep Mahomes upright, but it should absolutely open up some massive holes for CEH. Finally, let’s not forget that Edwards-Helaire entered last year as one of the top receiving backs entering the NFL. I believe with a full season and off-season program, Andy Reid will do his absolute best to put the ball in his hands.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill
Hill enters the season as one of the safest floor and highest ceiling WR’s available. The WR1 (FantasyPros Consensus ADP), you will need to invest a late 1st or early 2nd round pick, seeing as his current ADP is 10th overall. With the blend of Hill’s blazing speed and rapport with all-world QB, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek is a mismatch to anyone who lines up across from him. You have to go back to 2016, Hill’s rookie season to see him outside of the WR2 conversation, and that includes an injury-shortened 2019 when he missed 4 games. Too many times I have heard the “he is just a big-play guy, and can go missing” discussion, which is crazy. Since coming into the league, Hill ranks in the top 12 in Targets, Receptions, Yards, and TD (2nd). The Chiefs look again to be one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL, and besides Travis Kelce, really lacks a WR2, which just means more of the pie for Travis and Tyreek. At the end of the day, I have Hill as my WR1, especially with concerns in Green Bay.
Mecole Hardman
One of the most talked about situations in fantasy football has to revolve around the idea of how there doesn’t seem to be a true WR2 on the most prolific pass attack in the NFL. Since Patrick Mahomes took the reigns of the KC offense, there has only been two true outcomes. Tyreek Hill is the #1, and Travis Kelce is the #2. Yes, Sammy Watkins has been the 2nd most targeted WR in that span, but needless to say, over that time, he has yet to produce as anything more than a WR5. So what gives me hope that there can actually be a worthwhile #2 in KC?
If the true “Mecole Hardman” breakout season is ever going to happen, this should be the year. I have my doubts, but here are a couple reasons I may be swayed. For starters, if you look back at his production, it has been nothing short of efficient. His 18.2 fantasy points per snap in 2019 were good for 18th among WR, and he followed that up with 16.3 fantasy points/gm, which ranked 44th. Last years target share per snap played was at 12.4%, the highest of any WR not named Tyreek with Mahomes under center. Secondly, the departure of Sammy Watkins further deepens the need for Hardman to just see snaps. That is all we have been screaming for….”More Snaps!” While I am not going to drive the Hardman train, I do believe that I will once again go back to that well, in hopes that Andy Reid takes him off of PR and puts him more in the slot.
Tight End
Travis Kelce
Little needs to be said to justify Travis Kelce as the #1 TE off the board, worthy of a mid-round 1 draft slot. Since 2018, Kelce ranks 4th in Targets, 4th in Rec, 2nd in Yards and 5th in TD. While these would be pretty impressive numbers when compared against all other TE’s, these are his ranks in the NFL over that span. Not only are you grabbing the clear cut #1 TE in the game, there is a chance that you actually are grabbing a top 3 WR at a much less saturated position. Finding superlatives on Travis Kelce is daunting, and exploring ways to assume an even bigger role is near impossible, but with the vastly improved O-Line, there is a chance that he can run a few more routes instead of staying in to block, despite his already low blocking assignments. What else is there to say, enjoy him while we have him!
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