Fantasy Draft Strategy In PPR Leagues
This part II of a redraft strategies series, and will focus on half-PPR and PPR scoring. If you haven’t already read 4-EYED DRAFT STRATEGY: Non-PPR then read that first. As stated before, you need to know your league’s scoring settings because non-PPR, half-PPR, and PPR can drastically impact a player’s value.
What are half-PPR and PPR scoring?
Half-PPR is when a player receives .5 points for every reception and PPR is when a player receives one point for every reception. Several years ago fantasy football was dominated by workhorse running backs that carried the ball 20+ times a game and scored a lot of touchdowns. If you were fortunate enough to have a top pick then you typically dominated that season. Then some leagues adjusted the scoring to half-PPR or PPR, which added more value to pass-catching RBs and WRs. Nowadays, there are only a few workhorse-RBs and a lot more pass-catching RBs, and NFL offenses pass more now too. Some believe that PPR tips the balance to favor WRs too much now, which is why half-PPR has been a favored neutral scoring setting to appease both sides.
What is the impact on player value?
Simply, the impact on player value is the opposite of non-PPR scoring. Elite RBs and elite WRs will continue to be featured in their team’s offense and thus will produce, and the ones that have more receptions will separate themselves from the rest even more. Running backs that are not emphasized in the passing game fall behind in this scoring setting. Wide receivers that only see a few targets per game and get a couple of receptions are less valuable because they are touchdown-dependent. Remember, six reception is the equivalent of one touchdown. Slot receivers that get a lot of catches have more value, even if they do not turn that into a lot of yards. Tight Ends continue to be inconsistent, but the ones that get more targets and receptions have more value without needing to score a touchdown to help your team win its fantasy week.
Half-PPR vs. PPR Rankings
Below are the top-36 RBs of receptions per game in 2020. It shows how many points each player scored in PPR, half-PPR, and the scoring difference. There is a color scale to illustrate the difference in receptions per game and points per game amongst players. Dark green will be the highest number and dark red will be the lowest number. Theoretically, all four columns should match the color scale of receptions per game. The differences highlight which players’ scores do not directly correlate to the number of their receptions.
The running backs that stood out the most from this chart in combination with scoring stats from 2020, courtesy of FantasyData.com:
Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara both had a lot of receptions per game, but also had a lot of total yards and TDs which made their points per game so high (McCaffery had 125 total yards and 2 TDs per game, and Kamara had 112.5 total yards and 1.4 TDs per game). These two epitomized what elite PPR running backs are all about.
On the flip side, J.D. Mckissic would NOT have had any fantasy relevance in non-PPR leagues (1 TD, 954 total yards, 7ppg, and a WR 44 finish). Thanks to PPR scoring, the lack of TD scores was rectified by his 80 receptions (2nd in the league) which elevated him to the WR31 status in fppg with 12. Nyheim Hines would be another example of how his high reception upside bailed out his other less impressive stats (WR30 in PPR ppg & WR35 in non-PPR)
As you can see PPR scoring allows more RBs that just don’t have a significant carry-load to still hold value in your league. After the elite RBs are drafted in the first couple of rounds, you can still find valuable RBs in the mid-to-late rounds with RBs that have more involvement in the passing game. Now there are examples where high yardage and TD scores can compensate for a lack of receptions such as Dalvin Cook as well as running backs that despite their reception upside were unable to overcome their other less than impressive stats such as James White but as you can see those cases are more the exceptions than the norm in PPR scoring.
Below are the top-36 WRs of receptions per game in 2020:
The wide receivers that stood out the most from this chart in combination with scoring stats from 2020, courtesy of FantasyData.com:
Tyreek Hill had the 12th most receptions per game but was 2nd in points per game because he had 17 total TDs (1.13 TDs per game). Calvin Ridley took advantage of his 90 receptions and scored 9 TDs (.6 TDs per game) and made fantasy managers very happy in PPR leagues. Both of these WRs epitomized how PPR scoring can separate out the elite WRs from the non-elite producers.
Tyler Boyd had the 24th most receptions per game but has such a low PPG compared to the other 35 WRs because he had only had 4 TDs. That being said those receptions helped elevate him to the WR 37 in PPR scoring. The same could be said for Michael Thomas who had the lowest half-PPR PPG because he didn’t score any TDs but was bailed out in full PPR leagues due to his reception totals in games played.
As you can see from these examples finding the perfect combination of reception upside and scoring potential in the form of targets earned when in scoring position is what you want out of your elite WRs. In PPR leagues, however, a lack of TDs scored by non-elite WRs can be rectified more so than with non-elite pass-catching running backs due to more yards gained per reception and thus can help bring more fantasy value to more receivers.
Players to Target in PPR Drafts
Below are running backs and wide receivers that you should target because they have more value in PPR leagues. These players will also see value in half-PPR, but not as much as PPR compared to non-PPR.
RB Ezekiel Elliott: Zeke seems to be known as a “bruiser” with a heavy carry workload, but he averaged 3.0 rec/game with 3.7 targets/game and 21.3 receiving yards/game in 2020. He even had an additional 7 ppg in PPR scoring from his receiving touches!
RB Aaron Jones: Over the last 2 seasons, Jones has averaged 3.2 rec/game with 4.4 targets/game and 27.6 receiving yards/game. He has averaged an additional 7 ppg for PPR from his receiving touches too! Remember, Jamaal Williams left the Packers in free agency and AJ Dillon does not profile as a pass-catching RB, so Jones should get even more from the passing game this season.
RB David Montgomery: In 2020, Montgomery finished 30th in points/target with 3.86. He played 71% of the snaps in 2020, but a 9% target share for the team. If he can get more targets playing with a new QB this season then he can be more valuable in PPR leagues. He more than doubled his receptions from his rookie season to his second season, so he could continue to see another increase in his third season.
RB Myles Gaskin: Gaskin was part of a crowded backfield for part of 2020, but in the 6 games he started he averaged 6.8 rec/game on 7.8 targets/game. That was more than Christian McCaffery averaged in his starts in 2020! Gaskin’s value will greatly exceed his current ADP if he has that much work in the passing game in 2021.
WR Justin Jefferson: Jefferson had a rookie season for the record books, and he can still improve in his second season. In 6 out of 16 games, he scored less than 10 points. He only averaged 5.5 rec/game in 2020, and I expect that to increase. If he has 6 rec/game in 2021 he would finish with 102 receptions in 17 games. If he maintains his 15.9 yards/rec then every additional reception is 2.59 points (yards and reception), which adds up quickly with volume. Jefferson proved he is skilled at the NFL level, and I expect the offense to scheme more for him this season.
WR Keenan Allen: Allen always seems to be underappreciated because he has been labeled “injury-prone,” which is a false narrative. In the last 4 seasons, he has only missed 2 games. Some think he is too old, but he just turned 29 years old which is still in the prime age range for WRs (27-29). Allen is a target and reception machine, which makes him very valuable in PPR leagues even if he doesn’t score TDs. Over the last four seasons, he has averaged 100.75 receptions (6.5 rec/game) and 147.75 targets (9.5 targets/game). Opportunity and volume are kings in fantasy football, and even more so in PPR leagues.
WR Diontae Johnson: I know Johnson was known for having so many drops last season, but he also had a lot of targets (144) which means he had more opportunities for drops. You want to chase the opportunity to maximize volume. I do not think Roethlisberger was healthy last season, but indications this offseason are that he is feeling better. Even if Johnson does not get an increase in targets, he should easily eclipse 100 receptions and 1,000 yards for the season, which means he still has room to improve from 2020. Johnson showed a lot of potential in 2020, but he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet.
WR Cooper Kupp: Kupp is another undervalued WR that typically outperforms his ADP. Over the last 2 seasons, he has averaged 93 receptions (6 rec/game) and 129 targets (8.3 targets/game). However, last year he saw a decrease of 7.7 yards per game and scored 7 fewer touchdowns. This season he will play with Matt Stafford, who is known to be a high pass volume QB, which should help Kupp bounce back this season and outperform his ADP again.