4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT: Zach Wilson
It’s (another) new era in New York as the Jets selected quarterback Zach Wilson out of BYU with the second overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
With Sam Darnold out of town on the Carolina Panthers, Wilson figures to be the Week 1 starter and is one of the few rookie QBs we assume will be the starting quarterback for their team that early in the season. From looking at Zach Wilson’s collegiate career, including the famous Mormons Vs. Mullets game, let’s see how you should be valuing Wilson as you approach your dynasty rookie drafts and beyond in our latest 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!
The College Years
Zach Wilson played three seasons for the Brigham Young Cougars and even though he looks like a 12-year-old, Wilson just put up a grown man season in his junior year. In his freshman season, Wilson showed promise playing in nine games, passing for 1,578 yards, and 12 touchdowns while only throwing three interceptions. The reason Wilson was flying under the radar heading into 2020 was because of his sophomore season. While he still played in nine games and had more passing yards, his passing percentage and touchdowns decreased and he threw nine interceptions. Expectations were low going into the Fall of 2021, but Wilson had a monumental year.
Playing in all 12 games, Wilson was 247/336 passing for 3,692 yards, and 33 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Wilson was a consistent runner his first two years, but in his final season, he added 70 attempts for 254 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns showing that he could be mobile enough in this new era of quarterbacks having success in the NFL.
Wilson finished among the top of all quarterbacks in the NCAA for almost all of the passing stats his junior season. Wilson was sixth in completions, second in completion percentage, third in passing yards, third in passing yards per attempt, third in passing touchdowns, and second in passing efficiency rating all according to SportsReference. What this shows is that something clicked for Wilson in that final season at BYU and if the Jets are able to have him progress, he is going to be “the guy” for them for many years to come.
Mormons vs. Mullets
The reason that this game is memorable is partly due to its beautiful tagline and ensuing T-shirts, but also because this was one of the few games that Wilson and BYU took on a ranked opponent on national television. On December 5th, 2020 the BYU Cougars traveled to Conway, South Carolina, and took on undefeated Coastal Carolina. Both teams entered the game undefeated at 9-0 and in the AP poll BYU was ranked #8 while Coastal Carolina was #14. After a hard-fought game, Coastal came away with the win, and Wilson took the first loss of his final season.
Even though this was a great game, the future second-round pick left something to be desired with his performance. With his third-lowest passing percentage of the season, Wilson was only 19/30 for 240 yards with one touchdown and an interception. The touchdown was a 41-yard pass, so that was nice, but that was the highlight for Wilson. The reason I brought up this game is to point out how Wilson responded in his final two games of the season. Against San Diego State and Central Florida University, Wilson had 728 yards passing, six touchdowns, zero interceptions, and two rushing touchdowns between the two games. This showed me that he knows how to adjust week-to-week and can thrive after a loss.
What’s Wilson Bringing To New York?
Being the second overall pick, and the presumed starter, there are going to be a lot of eyes on Wilson to perform well early on. Even though Wilson wasn’t always everyone’s number two ranked quarterback, with the strides he made in accuracy his junior year, I think he is going to be able to translate his game to the NFL. Let’s look at how Wilson performed last season when passing short, intermediate, and deep.
The Short Game
According to PFF, for quarterbacks in the NCAA that had at least 87 short passing attempts (0-9 yards), Wilson was graded as the sixth-best quarterback. He completed 85% of his short passes and nine of his total touchdowns came from this range. He had the third-best passer rating on all qualified quarterbacks. For the Jets, this means that when they have Michael Carter, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Chris Herndon short, they are going to have accurate passes coming their way.
Middle Man
For quarterbacks that had at least 74 attempts at an intermediate distance (10-19 yards), Wilson was graded by PFF as the top quarterback. Wilson completed 69% of his passes for 1,132 yards and six touchdowns. His average depth of target on these passes was 13.4 yards which means that even if the Jets offense is slow to get their drives started with deep shots or trying to establish the run and they have 3rd and long, Wilson is still going to be efficient at picking up those first downs.
Bronx Bomber?
First off, I get it, they play in New Jersey, but I thought the title was funny. For quarterbacks with at least 40 attempts on deep balls (20+ yards), PFF graded Wilson as the best quarterback last year at a 99.9, their highest possible rating. So how did he earn this rating? Wilson had the highest completion percentage (62.5%), the highest adjusted throw percentage (67.9; this stat calculates the percentage of passes thrown on target), and had the second-highest passer rating on deep balls (131.0). Wilson is going to be the Jets’ most accurate passer for all three stages of the field which is going to help open up this offense.
Rookie Drafts
This section is going to be short and sweet. Whether you are in a SuperFlex league or a regular dynasty league, Wilson shouldn’t make it past the top-4, and for me, at the moment, he isn’t making it past number two overall. Lawrence is the clear number one here, but for Lance and Fields, they should only be taken above Wilson if you are okay waiting for a half-season or longer for them to get to the field. As of this writing, Wilson has the second-best chance to be the day 1 starter of rookie quarterbacks, and if you need quarterback help from the jump and Lawrence is gone? Wilson is going to be your guy.