4-EYED SLEEPER (2021): Robert Woods

May 23, 2021 Joe

Changes in scenery can do wonders for a players’ career. Those changes can be as big as a new city/team, or as simple as hiring a new coach, changing quarterbacks, and these days, apparently even changing numbers. This offseason, the Rams made a blockbuster deal for quarterback Matthew Stafford, the best quarterback Robert Woods has had the pleasure of playing within his eight-year career. This should help ensure that his trajectory continues to point upward. In other words….

……..Robert Woods is a 4-EYED SLEEPER who can help win you a fantasy football title.

Background

Woods was selected in the second round (41st overall) by the Buffalo Bills in 2013 after three productive seasons playing at USC. He was named the starter in week one, and his first NFL catch went for a touchdown. But, injuries, coaching/coordinator changes, and average (at best) QB play contributed to Woods never reaching his potential with the Bills. After four inconsistent years in Buffalo, averaging just over fifty receptions per year, Robert Woods signed a five-year deal with the Los Angeles Rams in March of 2017. Although these aren’t your “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams, being slated as the No. 1 wideout in offensive whiz Sean McVay’s offense, has its privileges. Woods went from averaging under 4 catches per game in Buffalo, to almost 6 receptions/game the last three years in La-La Land.

Fantasy Potential & Opportunity

Woods has been the model of consistency the past three seasons in targets/opportunities received in this passing game for L.A., and that opportunity has led to WR2 fantasy production during his time there. In 2018, Woods’ second season in L.A., he ranked 13th in targets (130) and 16th in fantasy points with 13.9 fppg (half-PPR). The following year, he was 8th in targets (139) but his only reaching the endzone twice resulted in a 19th place finish at his position with 12.5 fppg. Last season, Woods was again 13th in targets (129, notice the consistency?) and 13th in points with 12.5 fppg. He also contributes to the running game, averaging 20 carries, around 140 yards, and a score per year. As I said, he’s been the model of consistency in this offense.

Now while I don’t anticipate McVay re-writing his playbook for his new QB Matthew Stafford, I do expect the passing game to open up more. After all, according to PFF, Matthew Stafford had the 4th highest average depth of passing target or aDOT amongst all QBs in 2020 with 9.4 yards. Jared Goff last year was the QB36. Another major difference in the quarterback upgrade for the Rams is Stafford ranking 8th in air yards to Goff’s 19th in 2020, which lends credence towards the Rams producing more big plays and touchdowns for this passing game. Now Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford DO have similar career completion percentages of around 63%, so one should expect Woods to at least maintain his catch rate in this offense due to his sure-handed nature as a receiver.

All of that combined with the fact that, when he gets the ball in his hands, Woods is one of the best yards after catch or YAC receivers in the NFL it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Woods could have WR1 upside in 2021.

Future Outlook

So, what does this mean for 2021 and beyond? 

Woods is 29 years old, so figures to have a few productive years left in him, and he’s been durable, missing only one game in three years. His current average draft position (ADP) is the 20th wide receiver off the board according to Fantasy Football Calculator as of 5/23/21.

Fantasy Football ADP for Robert Woods

He’s being drafted as a WR2, but there’s no doubt that he has WR1 potential with the upgrade at quarterback on this offense. Woods has been incredibly consistent as a member of the Rams, and an upgrade at quarterback suggests his previous career numbers in L.A. might well be his floor entering the 2021 season. Woods might have changed his uniform number to #2, but he plays more like a #1. Draft him with confidence at his current ADP, and expect him to easily outperform his draft slot.