4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT: Trey Lance
With the third pick in the 2021 NFL draft the San Francisco 49ers select… Mac Jones Trey Lance…
In today’s 4-EYED Rookie Snapshot we profile the new QB in Santa Clara and give you our honest assessment of his fantasy value going forward!
Profile and College Production
Despite being just a one-year starter, Lance clearly has the raw talent to succeed and showed the 49ers more than enough in 2019. That year Lance completed 192 of his 287 passing attempts, throwing for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns in his sophomore season at North Dakota State. COVID curtailed his final season in college with NDSU only partaking in one game in 2020 – raising obvious questions for Lance and his development.
Dan Hayes’ recent article on Trey Lance in The Athletic provides an insight into why the 49ers felt confident taking a chance despite only playing in 18 games at college. “Impressive as his study habits are, Lance’s film junky status isn’t what stood out to teammates. They were blown away by his ability to process the information before effectively communicating it to them, after which, he’d use it to pick defenses apart.”
One of the most exciting aspects of the North Dakota State product is his athleticism and rushing abilities. Lance stands at 6-foot-4 226 lbs and would have reportedly run in the mid-4.5s in the 40-yard dash. In his sophomore season Lance rushed 169 times, racking up a total of 1,100 yards and an impressive 14 rushing touchdowns. This represented a healthy 6.5 yards per attempt. We know that rushing quarterbacks present fantasy managers with a cheat code to garner extra points – and under a high-flying offensive scheme the ceiling becomes even more mouth-watering for Lance.
The Short-Term
Looking at this year, prospective dynasty managers of Trey Lance may need to wait a while to see their man take the field with Jimmy Garoppolo still in San Francisco. It is worth remembering how few games Lance has played, particularly recently. This limited experience may mean he is not ready straight away and the current set-up gives him time to develop behind a veteran without the pressure to produce immediately.
Having said that, if Jimmy G is struggling or his injury concerns return, it would not be a surprise to see Lance under center at some point in 2021. Lance also provides Kyle Shanahan with a completely different skillset to that of Garoppolo, so if he does develop quicker than expected and is genuinely ready for the NFL, we could see him sooner than we think. The schedule release also gives us an early insight into the opponents Lance could face if he does start – and the last few weeks of the season look particularly enticing. Over the final seven weeks of the fantasy season, the 49ers look to have a great schedule – including matchups against Jaguars, Bengals, Falcons and Texans in week 17.
Long-Term Prospects
There is an argument to be made that Lance has the highest ceiling amongst all rookie quarterbacks in this 2021 class – particularly with this landing spot. It is worth remembering that Lance has only just turned 21. In fact, he was born after Tom Brady was draft by the New England Patriots. As a prospect he has all the raw talents and physical tools to be able to thrive and is now under the guise of the San Francisco coaching staff to help him develop.
And he has now landed in one of the most beneficial landing spots a rookie quarterback could ask for. First and foremost, he will learn under one of the best offensive minds in the NFL at the moment in Kyle Shanahan. This is a play caller who has had success with Jimmy G and even Nick Mullens on occasion. Lance also walks into a team with a plethora of weapons around him with two-time Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle under contract through 2025 and emerging wide receiver talents in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
Additionally, there are several other areas of the team which will help significantly while he is still developing. Firstly, the team has one of the best offensive lines in the league. This will not only help keep him upright but allow the team to continue to utilize their highly efficient running game. On top of this, defensively San Francisco has been one of the best teams in the league over the last couple of seasons. Last year, despite losing several key starters, the team allowed the fifth fewest total yards in the league with 5,030. This represented a yards per offensive play of just 5.0 last year, fourth best in the NFL. This will all help take pressure off the young quarterback early on in his career.
Approaching Rookie Drafts
This is where it gets really interesting. Up until the draft, the vast majority of people had a clear-cut number one and two at quarterback: Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. The selection of Trey Lance, however, has certainly made people question their rankings – me included. Given the landing spot and the sky-high potential Lance possesses, I believe he should certainly be in the conversation to be taken as the second quarterback in rookie drafts.