4-EYED DYNASTY TARGET: Denzel Mims
After a disappointing first campaign in the NFL, New York Jets wide receiver Denzel Mims is somewhat forgotten among the stellar 2020 rookie receiver class. However, with a new coaching staff arriving in New York, the former Baylor receiver has a good opportunity to have a breakout year in 2021.
Mims has an ideal frame to succeed in the NFL. Measuring at 6-foot 3 and 207lbs, Mims ran a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine last year and had an impressive relative athletic score of 9.77, according to Kent Lee Platt’s Relative Athletic Scores. This ranked 15th in the whole 2020 class and second amongst wide receivers, only behind Steelers wide receiver Chase Claypool, who hit 9.98. Mims had great production during his time at Baylor, under current Panthers head coach Matt Rhule, amassing just over 2,900 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns over his four years.
Rookie Season
After being selected by the New York Jets towards the end of the second round, there were hopes Mims would carve a clear role out for himself, despite low expectations surrounding the team. Mims, unfortunately, had an underwhelming start to his career in the NFL, accumulating a total of just 357 receiving yards on 23 receptions from 44 targets without scoring any touchdowns. He played in only nine games after missing the first six with injury.
Mims’ big-play ability, however, was evident even in his limited usage last season, with his average depth of target reaching an impressive 15.3 yards. This ranked as 7th highest in the league amongst receivers with at least 40 targets. While Mims did have a handful of highlights during his rookie campaign, it is hard to glean any really meaningful insights from such a dire Jets season. The fact that Frank Gore led the team in yards from scrimmage with 742 should speak volumes as to the offensive struggles under Adam Gase’s stewardship.
Last year’s statistics clearly demonstrate how restricted Mims and the rest of the wide receiver corps were. The Jets ranked lowest in offensive yards in the league with just 4,479 total yards and were also lowest in yards per play at a measly 4.7 yards. They also accumulated just 2,796 passing yards. the second-fewest in the league last year, only behind the Baltimore Ravens (2,739). The inability to throw the ball downfield effectively clearly limited Mims, with Darnold’s net yards per attempt standing at just 4.95 last season, the second-lowest in the league only behind Carson Wentz at 4.71.
Outlook
The future, however, looks much brighter for the Jets going forward, particularly for their skill-position players. Most importantly, the new coaching regime in New York should provide plenty more opportunities for Mims to contribute effectively. With new head coach Robert Saleh bringing in Mike LaFleur (the former 49ers passing game coordinator) as offensive coordinator, the Jets are likely to run a Shanahan-style offense which should result in a significant uptick in production for the whole offensive unit.
There is also likely to be an upgrade at the quarterback position in the near future, with the Jets looking set to take Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in the upcoming draft. Wilson’s deep ball is clearly one of his strengths, which should also assist Mims’ big-play ability going forward. The BYU quarterback had an adjusted completion percentage of 67.9% on deep throws (at least 20 yards downfield), which represented the highest figure across college football last season amongst quarterbacks with at least 30 deep attempts, according to PFF.
Another factor to consider is the current lack of elite competition for targets in New York. The Jets did sign former top-five pick Corey Davis to a three-year US$ 37.5m contract, someone who has yet to reach the highs expected of him when he entered the league, failing to reach 1,000 yards in a season during his first four years. Davis had a career year last season, accumulating 984 receiving yards and five touchdowns from 65 receptions, but given Mims’ profile, there is no reason he could not elevate himself to the number one passing option.
With so many holes in the roster, on both sides of the ball, it would also seem unlikely the team would take another receiver with one of their early-round picks in the draft later this month. If the wide receiver group looks largely similar come the start of the season, we should expect a significant increase in Mims’ usage from the 44 targets he saw last season. There’s no reason why Mims cannot become the latest in a line of skill-position players who have seen their production flourish once Gase has departed.
The fact there are a few question marks after a poor first season in the league has kept Mims’s value fairly low. Looking at his current valuation, Mims currently ranks as the WR50, according to FantasyData’s dynasty rankings. All in all, Mims looks set for a much improved second season in the NFL and could be a great target for dynasty managers while his value remains suppressed.