4 EYED DYNASTY TARGET: Chase Claypool
The big-bodied WR had a solid rookie season in the pass-happy Pittsburgh offense, but worries around Big Ben, the unforeseen return of JuJu to the offense, and the small matter of an incident outside a bar have dampened the mood around “Mapletron”. I am here to alleviate your fears and make the case for Chase.
Megatron Comparisons
The British Columbia native declared for the NFL draft in 2020 coming off his breakout year in College Football as he led Notre Dame in targets, receptions & TD’s before really raising eyebrows with a stellar showing at the NFL Combine. Claypool ran an impressive 4.42-second 40-yard dash which when paired with his 6’4 238lb frame drew comparisons to HOF receiver Calvin Johnson, as Claypool became the first receiver since Megatron to post a sub-4.45-second 40-yard dash at 6’4 and over 235lbs since 2003. With a breakout season and impressive combine behind him, Claypool was selected in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft and became a top 50 pick as the Pittsburgh Steelers selected him 49th overall.
Training Camp Superstar
It did not take long for Claypool to start turning heads once the Steelers got together for training camp. Veterans Eric Ebron and Joe Haden both referred to Claypool as a “PROBLEM”. Pittsburgh beat writers were also gushing over his ability, Mark Kaboly wrote in The Athletic that Claypool was “Making non-rookie-like plays after running non-rookie-like routes and making non-rookie-like catches.”
Rookie Season
Claypool enjoyed a successful rookie season for the Steelers as he made up one-third of a fearsome pass-catching threesome alongside JuJu Smith-Schuster & Diontae Johnson. Claypool featured in all fantasy-relevant games in 2020 scoring 11 total TD’s which led all Steelers. Two of those scores came on the ground as the Steelers seemingly wanted to generate touches for their most dangerous playmaker. From a fantasy point of view, Claypool finished a close second in fantasy points to JuJu Smith-Schuster when just looking at the Steelers pass catchers, and finished as the second-highest fantasy-scoring rookie WR only behind the ridiculously impressive Justin Jefferson.
Ultimately, Claypool finished his rookie season as the WR19 with an average FPTS/G of 11.5 and whilst that’s reason enough to make the second-year pass catcher a trade candidate it is really the underlined efficiency metrics and situation going forward that make Chase Claypool a real coveted dynasty asset.
Efficiency Metrics
There are some efficiency metrics that are just more important than others and for me Y/RR (yards per route run) & aDOT (average depth of target) are important when I am looking at WR’s. According to Pro Football Focus, Claypool ranked 16th in the NFL for Y/RR and 9th in aDOT in 2020. This shows that not only is Claypool running routes with the intention of receiving the football but also that he is a chunk play threat, and both are great for fantasy owners! Two other metrics I like to look at when evaluating WR’s as dynasty buys are YAC (yards after catch) & YAC/REC (yards after catch per reception) both of which give us an understanding of what type of offense the player is in and what his ability to make plays with the ball in his hand is like when given the opportunity. Unsurprisingly, Claypool ranked high in YAC/REC finishing 7th in the NFL in that metric, but what was surprising was how much YAC he produced without taking into consideration his 62 receptions. Claypool finished just outside the top 20 in YAC for the 2020 season which when you consider his aDOT of 13.8 is a bit of a shock.
Of the 22 players ahead of Claypool for YAC in 2020 fourteen of them posted an aDOT in the single digits, and of the 8 remaining players only two others posted an aDOT in the 13’s with DK Metcalf being the only player in the NFL to post higher aDOT & YAC scores than Chase Claypool. With their similar size (both weigh in at 1.94m 229lbs) and speed (Metcalf ran a ridiculous 4.33 40-yard dash at his combine but with sub 4.45 speed being considered fast in the NFL I put them in a similar albeit differently tiered category), I decided to see how Metcalf’s rookie year looked like and if that could give us an indication of what we could expect from Claypool in his sophomore season.
DK METCALF V CHASE CLAYPOOL AS ROOKIES
| EFFICIENCY METRICS | 2019 DK METCALF | 2020 CHASE CLAYPOOL |
| TARGETS | 100 | 109 |
| RECEPTIONS | 58 | 62 |
| RECEIVING YARDS | 900 | 873 |
| RECEIVING TD’s | 7 | 9 |
| YAC (NFL RANK) | 280 (25th) | 333 (23rd) |
| aDOT (NFL RANK) | 13.7 (10th) | 13.8 (9th) |
| Y/RR (NFL RANK) | 1.69 (25th) | 2.0 (16th) |
| YAC/REC (NFL RANK) | 4.8 (9th) | 5.4 (7th) |
As we can see in the table above these players had similar rookie NFL seasons with Claypool coming out ahead in all but one metric. Another metric they scored similarly in as rookies was fumbles, with both putting the ball on the floor 3 times. DK cleaned that up in his sophomore season and there is no reason to believe Claypool won’t either.
Metcalf and Claypool are both big bodied, fast receivers who had almost identical rookie seasons when you look at some of the most important stats and metrics for fantasy football. DK built on that good rookie year with a very impressive sophomore season that has some in the dynasty community calling him a top 3 WR in that format. Is it completely inconceivable that we’ll be hearing those superlatives in relation to Chase Claypool next offseason?
Situation
Chase Claypool’s impressive rookie campaign and natural progression from a rookie player to a 2nd year starter should see him even more targeted in the Pittsburgh offense in the 2021 season. Matt Canada’s promotion to OC is expected to benefit not only Claypool but the offense as a whole. Canada was often given the credit whenever the Steelers added a wrinkle or something different from the meat and potatoes offense we saw under previous OC Randy Fichtner in 2020.
No receiver in the NFL registered more drops last season than Diontae Johnson. It got so bad he was benched for a portion of the Steelers MNF game with the Buffalo Bills, so there’s good reason to question the level of trust Matt Canada will have in him heading into the new season, and with JuJu Smith-Schuster widely believed to have been moving on in the offseason (so much so that at one stage he was voting on Instagram polls saying he wouldn’t be back in Pittsburgh) you have to wonder if Canada had already started making provisional plans for an offense without him. Furthermore, with JuJu only signing a one year almost “prove it” type deal it doesn’t make sense to make a guy who could be out after the season the forefront of your offense. When these things are taken into consideration along with Claypool’s undeniable talent and physical traits it’s easy to see how he could be the number one target on an offense that led the NFL in pass attempts in 2020.
Conclusion
Whilst Claypool is by no means a ‘buy low’ candidate there seems to be a path and a precedent for a big sophomore season, and if he does hit the heights that DK Metcalf did in 2020, he will be unattainable at any palatable price for a buyer. Luckily, this could be a good time to acquire Chase Claypool with 2021 rookie draft picks being as valuable as they are ever going to be (bar the actual draft) and with his name in the headlines for the wrong reasons recently now would be a good time to test the water and see what the asking price is for “Mapletron”.