Today, we will be checking the market on some Wide Receivers, the deepest and yet sometimes most fickle position in fantasy football. For my risers, I have selected two second-year players that I feel have massive upside and potential, and for my fallers, I have selected two veterans who fell short of their hype last year and I am completely out on moving forward. Why? Read on.
RISER 1- BRANDON AIYUK, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Two prospects I admittedly were too low on last offseason were Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk. What I learned from this is: Jefferson is more than a slot receiver, and when Kyle Shanahan drafts a WR in the 1st round of the NFL draft, you listen. While many analysts, especially on the dynasty side of the equation, thought that fellow Sundevil teammate N’Keal Harry (drafted the year prior by New England) was the better receiver, this clearly was not the case. In Harry’s defense, he is a big body receiver (6’2”) with great high contested catch ability and excellent in the screen game. However, Aiyuk is a different animal. With a 4.5 40 yard dash, he looks fast without pods, but almost appears faster at game speed. The lateral moves, tackle-breaking ability, screen game, AND the option of being a deep threat make him an all around complete receiver. Standing at 6’0” and weighing in at 205 LBS, he has the size and frame to handle a complete workload as a starting wide receiver, although COVID and a high ankle sprain (Week 16) did cause him to miss a combined 4 games.
In the 12 games he did play, however, he caught 60 passes for 748 yards and 5 touchdowns, with a 62.5 percent catch rate. He also added 77 yards on the ground on 6 rushes with 2 touchdowns. All this landed him at WR33 on the season (as per FantasyPros.com, ½ point PPR scoring). Great stats for a rookie, right? Well, they could have been better. Consider the fact that San Francisco had Jimmy Garapollo in and out of the line up and at times was relying on Nick Mullens and CJ Bethard. Imagine if they trade for a Matthew Stafford or Desean Watson. Maybe Aaron Rodgers makes himself available. The Quarterback situation for the 49ers is uncertain, but what is certain is that Aiyuk’s stock is only going to go up, so get him while you can.
RISER 2- TEE HIGGINS, CINCINNATI BENGALS- Last season, Joe Burrow set the NCAA on fire and the LSU Tigers put one of the best offenses on the field college football has ever seen. He was then selected 1st overall by Cincinnati. How is this relevant? Well, he told the Bengals brass that he wanted Tee Higgins, and sitting there at the 2.01 was Clemson’s own Tee Higgins. Standing at 6’4” and weighing 215 LBS, I didn’t see much physicality on his Clemson tape. Many, including myself, considered him a 1st round talent, but him not testing at the combine surely could have affected his draft stock. Looking back at the 2020 draft class, and 6 receivers were selected ahead of him: Henry Ruggs (RD1P12), Jerry Jeudy (RD1P15), Ceedee Lamb (RD1P17), Jalen Reagor (RD1P21), Justin Jefferson (RD1P22) and Brandon Aiyuk (RD1P25). All of these players are talented, sure, but being realistic I feel that both Ruggs and Reagor will be better suited for NFL football then fantasy football. Jeudy is a stellar route runner, but did have his share of drops, uncharacteristically, and has Quarterback concerns. Ceedee will be a stud before long, and his price will stay outrageous. We already talked about Aiyuk, and Jefferson looks like the second coming of Randy Moss. So that brings us to Tee.
In his rookie season, he played all 16 games (with 14 starts) and amassed 908 yards on 67 receptions (108 targets) and 6 touchdowns with a 62% catch rate. On the ground he didn’t add much with 28 yards on 5 carries and 0 touchdowns, but all this was enough to put him at WR30 on the season (as per FantasyPros.com, ½ point PPR scoring).
We see what he can do. The stats are there, and he looks more physical in the NFL then I ever recall seeing at Clemson. AJ Green should be gone next season, and aside from Tyler Boyd, there isn’t much standing in the way of Tee becoming a WR1, possibly in time for that 3rd year breakout. Go grab him now, and try to use Burrow’s ACL injury as a way to acquire him cheaper, as it is currently unknown if he will be back in time to start the season.
FALLER 1- JARVIS LANDRY, CLEVELAND BROWNS- You would think with the Browns winning their first playoff game since the 90’s, the only way Jarvis would be on this list is because Odell Beckham Jr. smashed this season. Not quite. OBJ was lost around week 7 to an ACL tear, and with a stout running game, Jarvis Landry wasn’t needed like he normally was in years past. That, with a week 5 rib injury (no time missed) and offseason hip surgery surely slowed down the reliable wide out, and I would be remiss to mention the Mayfield/Rashard Higgins connection as well. Baker did an excellent job spreading the ball around this season, and it almost feels like once the team got better, Landry’s stats got worse.
Was he still startable? Of course. Just not as the WR1 you were expecting. In 2020, he finished at WR36 (as per FantasyPros.com, ½ point PPR scoring), and got there by grabbing 72 passes (101 targets) for 840 yards and 3 touchdowns. Its really not bad, especially considering if you were doing a startup draft in June of 2020 he was being taken as WR46 (as per DLF), so he technically out performed his ADP, but none the less, it’s not the same old Jarvis and this is a run first team, with a QB that does NOT throw a great deep ball. If you want to flip an aging talent for younger players or picks, now is the time.
FALLER 2- STERLING SHEPARD, NEW YORK GIANTS- Want to know what Sterling Shepard has never done? Went for over 1,000 yards in a season. His highest output was 872 yards in 2018. Most touchdowns in a season? 8 in 2016. And to that point, he has only ever played 16 games twice in his career- 2016 and 2018. So why, year after year, do we keep saying Shepard is a great PPR WR3, WR2 if we are lucky? With a career catch rate of 66.7% and a Quarterback with a career completion percentage of 62.2% in Daniel Jones, I am so far out on Sterling Shepard it isn’t even funny. To that point, I don’t know which Giants receiver I would want. Maybe, MAYBE Darius Slayton. Golden Tate is old and was deactivated for conduct detrimental to the team last year. Evan Engram, oh, he has burned me so much in the past and is always nicked up. And without looking, I honestly can’t name their other receivers off the top of my head. All of this, and not to mention missing 6 games with multiple concussions in the 2019 season- SELL. And do it quickly. If you want to flip Sterling, try to get some late 2nds or a young unheralded prospect, maybe a Gabriel Davis or Collin Johnson.