Brandon Aiyuk: A Championship Winner
What do you get when you are on a team with nothing to lose and everyone else is hurt? Fantasy relevance!
Brandon Aiyuk has been the lone bright spot of this 49ers team that can’t stay healthy. With Deebo Samuel struggling to stay active, Kittle on the IR, and the RB Committee constantly looking like a revolving door, Aiyuk has managed to not only bring some relevance to the 49ers in fantasy, but he has been consistent and dependable. If you are in your fantasy football playoffs and you have Aiyuk, you are going to want to fire him up for his last three games against the Cowboys, the Cardinals, and the Seahawks.
The Cowboys aren’t very good, but to their credit their defense is giving up the sixth fewest passing yards on a per game basis so you would think that this is going to hurt the value of Aiyuk. However, Aiyuk has turned in six straight games of either a TD scored or over 100 yards receiving, most recently coming off of a 10 reception, 119 yard performance against the vaunted Washington Football Team. Aiyuk hasn’t had fewer than 14.5 fantasy points in a game in his last five games (FanDuel scoring). Another important aspect of that five game stretch has been his target share. Aiyuk has been targeted a total of 56 times or roughly 11.2 times per game. He brought in 36 of those targets for 495 yards and three TDs. Even more impressive, he has put up these numbers with Nick Mullens as his QB…Nick…Mullens!! As good as the Cowboys real life defense is at limiting passing, and thus receiving yards, the Cowboys are actually giving up the fourth most points to wide receivers in fantasy, as well as the most touchdowns to WRs this season. Last week against the Bengals, the Cowboys pass defense gave up 62 yards and a TD to AJ Green, 49 yards receiving to Tee Higgins and 43 yards to Tyler Boyd. Their rush defense has not been much better as they have given up the most rushing yards per game this season. What this should mean is that whatever RB the 49ers throw out there they are sure to get some work. This ultimately should allow Mullens to open up the offense with the primary beneficiary of that being Brandon Aiyuk.
The Cardinals are better than the Cowboys (real groundbreaking stuff from me this week), but their defense isn’t something to fear for receivers. Sure, Nick Mullens is going to have a rough game, but the volume and the targets should still be there for Aiyuk. Two weeks ago, the Rams handled this Cardinals defense with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods going for a combined 158 yards receiving. The Cardinals are giving up 224.9 passing yards per game this they are giving up 30.1 fantasy points to wide receivers per week. The Cardinals are giving up the sixth most receptions per game to receivers and with Aiyuk’s target share and reception numbers in his last five games make him start worthy here. Of the three games left, this week will be Aiyuk and the 49ers’ toughest, but it still doesn’t leave me shaking in my space boots.
It is unfortunate that this matchup is in week 17, but if your league does their playoffs wrong you are in luck! Aiyuk is going to draw a matchup with the Seattle Seahawks in week 17 and the Seahawks defense hasn’t figured out how to stop a receiver all season. Their defense is giving up the most passing yards in the league and they are allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers at 27.0 points per game. Another plus for Aiyuk is that he is on a hot streak, having caught TD receptions in three of the last four games. All of them have come from within the ten yard line so even though the 49ers have this RB committee that seems to include every type of back, they are still looking to Aiyuk to be a big body in the endzone. The Seahawks are giving up 216.8 yards receiving per game which is the most in the league. This matchup is also going to go up in value if the Seahawks lock up a seed in the playoffs before this because then they may rest their defense while the 49ers have nothing to play for other than draft position.