When Damien Williams decided to opt-out of the season, the value of Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire skyrocketed as he figured to be the 3-down back for the reigning Super Bowl champs. From being the 31st pick in the NFL Draft to a top-10 pick in fantasy drafts without even playing a down, the hopes were high for CEH. It may just be because I have very few shares of CEH, but I’m feeling more MEH about him. Based on how his season has gone so far we should really ask the question, “how should we feel about playing him the rest of the way?”
If you look at his rushing stats so far this season, CEH has 140 carries (11th), 655 yards (7th), and 4 TDs (30th). Add on top of those that he averages 4.7 yards per attempt (15th), 65.5 yards per game (12th), and has 0 fumbles. That all being said, you probably aren’t too upset if you drafted CEH. That being said, his future outlook for the rest of the season as we head towards the fantasy football playoffs leaves some things to be desired. This week he faces the 7th ranked defense against RBs in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In the Buccs past 3 games, they have allowed 40 yards 0 TDs, 45 yards 0 TDs, 79 yards 1 TD to consecutive starting running backs on the ground with the latter game being a combination of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray. Future matchups for the rest of the season include playing against Denver, Miami, Saints (#1 defense against RBs in fantasy), Falcons, and Chargers. Other than the Buccs and the Saints, this rest of season schedule isn’t awful, but keep an eye on when your league’s playoffs start. His fellow teammate in the backfield Le’Veon Bell is luckily not eating into CEH’s stats too much, but there is one problem of the presence of Bell. In the 6 weeks that it was the CEH show, he played at least 60% of snaps, ranging from 60% in week 5 up to 73% in week 4. Since Bell was acquired and touched the field in week 7, CEH hasn’t played more than 53% of snaps, hovering around 50% for the 4 games with Bell. However, in Week 9 against a close game with the Carolina Panthers, CEH was only on the field for 40% of the team’s snaps. In no way is Bell outsnapping CEH, but with this lowered usage, plus his supporting cast I think this lowers CEH’s ceiling.
The factor of CEH’s usage and game that is a concern is his supporting cast which ties into the receiving game. In fantasy at least, CEH has the league’s best QB, best TE, and the WR2 in Tyreek Hill in Fan Duel scoring for teammates. These 3 teammates, Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill all appear in the top-28 of overall fantasy points this season. CEH? Ranks 52nd which puts him right ahead of Todd Gurley and right behind Kareem Hunt for running backs. This creates a solid floor for CEH, but I don’t think you can count on him for a home run performance because he isn’t involved in the passing game as much as you would like. CEH has 29 receptions on 45 targets which is the same exact numbers as SF WR Kendrick Bourne except he has 156 more yards. If you are looking at RBs near CEH in terms of receiving, he is right behind David Montgomery of the Bears and right in front of backup Jamaal Williams of the Packers. I think that this lack of usage drops CEH down from RB1 territory each week to RB2/Flex with the flex consideration coming in week’s like this one where he is facing such a good defense at stifling the run.
As you approach the fantasy football playoffs, you are going to be starting your studs and playing the players that have helped you get to the playoffs to begin with. This most likely is going to be CEH. Keep an eye on his Week 12 performance against the Buccs and if he struggles to get going, you may want to sit him against the Saints. More than likely, you are going to play CEH for this other matchups without question, so I would just say to take caution and know that he can’t be relied on to bring you a RB1 performance every week, but his floor is still high enough that he can be started and he will return some value.
