Week 11: Eyes Forward to Playoffs
Weeks 10 to 12 always seem to be the most gutwrenching for fantasy owners. You’re fighting for playoff spots or bye weeks. You’re trying to decide whether Player X is still the man you thought he was in Week 4. You’re guessing whether that rookie will finally break out or continue to rot on your bench. In our 4-EYED RECAP of Week 11, we’ll see who helped, who hurt, and who WILL help your playoff chances.
Quarterback: Andy Dalton
| Format | Fantasy Points Scored | Avg FPPG |
| FanDuel (0.5PPR) | 18.3 | 8.6 |
Show me a healthy Andy Dalton, and I’ll show you a…well, fairly decent QB. Against an improving Vikings defense, Dalton had his best game of the season. On Sunday, he went 22 of 32 for 203 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 interception. If I’m eyeing a playoff run, can I seriously stream Andy Dalton?
Going into Week 11, Dalton’s stats were uninspiring. He ranked towards the very bottom of the league in terms of intended air yards per pass attempt (6.0, only above Drew Brees) and completed air yards per completion (4.4, above only Dwayne Haskins and Jimmy Garoppolo). But his sample size has been small with only 2 full games under his belt. I’d encourage you to watch the Dallas-Vikings highlights. As much as it pains an Eagles fan to say this, Dalton looked sharp and his stable of talented WRs looked impressive.
Hopefully, for fantasy managers, Sunday was a sign of things to come for the Cowboys’ offense. With his next games against Washington and Baltimore, Dalton will see his toughest match-ups yet. If he makes it through those games healthy and playing well, his playoff schedule is juicy with Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. Keep an eye on Dalton as a streamer during your playoff run.
Honorable Mention: Ryan Tannehill defied the odds. Facing a very formidable Ravens defense, Tannehill threw for 259 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 interception, while adding 35 rushing yards on 4 attempts. And the rushing yards weren’t a fluke. In the second quarter, Tannehill rolled outside on a designed play-action bootleg that went for 20 yards. In the fourth quarter, he rushed up the middle to score on a 2-point conversion. That said, the Titans’ offense is not optimally designed for Tannehill to throw the ball 31 times as he did Sunday. Although Tannehill’s performance gives you less heartburn, I’d still consider benching him against the Colts, who have given up the fewest fantasy points to QBs. But if he does well against the Colts, drop your back-up QB and ride out the season with Tannehill against Cleveland, Jacksonville, Detriot, and Green Bay.
Running Back: J.K. Dobbins
| Format | Fantasy Points Scored | Avg FPPG |
| Non-PPR | 16.5 | 6.8 |
| FanDuel (0.5PPR) | 17.5 | 7.7 |
| PPR | 18.5 | 8.5 |
How to celebrate becoming the #1 running back for the Ravens? Dance your heart out with that blinged-out football, J.K. Dobbins! With 70 rushing yards and 1 TD on 15 attempts, plus 2 catches on 2 targets for 15 yards, you’ve earned it! So does this mean we finally have a lead RB in the Baltimore backfield?
Perhaps the best stat for Dobbins is that he was on the field for 62% of snaps. Previously, he saw 50%+ of snaps only when Mark Ingram was out: Weeks 8 and 9 against Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. On Sunday, Ingram was healthy but saw just 2 snaps for 2 yards. Similarly, Gus Edwards saw a significant decrease in his involvement, getting only 3 touches for 6 yards. It makes sense when you look at advanced stats for Dobbins. In terms of both yards before contact (3.0) and after contact (2.4) per attempt, Dobbins ranks in the top 12 among RBs.
Yet, Dobbins has zero TDs since his 2-TD premiere in Week 1. Sadly, one thing that will always cap his ceiling is Lamar Jackson. Going into Sunday, Lamar had 20 carries in the red zone, 42% of Baltimore’s total red zone carries. Meanwhile, Dobbins had only 7 red zone carries.
Next week, Dobbins looks to repeat his smash Week 8 performance against Pittsburgh, when he had 113 rushing yards. Since Pittsburgh has otherwise bottled up RBs all season, I would temper expectations for Dobbins. If Dobbins disappoints against Pittsburgh, try to trade for Dobbins. Or trade for him now by pointing out the tough match-up. In the fantasy playoffs, Dobbins faces Jacksonville and, in Championship Week, the New York Giants, both of which are smash spots for running backs.
Honorable Mention: Damien Harris managers are thrilled! He led the team with 11 rushes for 43 yards and 1 TD and added 1 catch on 2 targets for 11 yards. Harris seems to have great vision, evident by his top-4 yards before contact per attempt (3.6) going into Week 11. However, even in this strong outing against the Texans, he was on the field for only 38% of snaps. Compare that to James White, who saw 57% of snaps. Although Rex Burkhead is now banged up, Sony Michel was activated off IR and may take a piece of the snape share pie. If you can trade high on Harris – say perhaps for one J.K. Dobbins – I wouldn’t hesitate.
Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman
| Format | Fantasy Points Scored | Avg FPPG |
| Non-PPR | 12.6 | 5.5 |
| FanDuel (0.5PPR) | 14.1 | 7.2 |
| PPR | 15.6 | 8.9 |
Last week’s honorable mention, Michael Pittman, was clearly motivated by my note to “temper expectations.” Against Green Bay, Pittman led the Colts with 66 receiving yards, including a crossing route that he took 45 yards to the house for a touchdown! But with only 3 catches on 3 targets, is Pittman reliable?
One thing helping Pittman is his ability to move around the field. Green Bay’s premier cornerback, Jaire Alexander, didn’t shadow Pittman in the slot, including on the TD catch. As a result, the Colts can use Pittman in different packages. Hence, Pittman has been on the field for 80% of snaps in each of the past 3 games. Capping Pittman’s potential is the Colts’ propensity to run the ball, including 37 rush attempts this week. Over the past 5 weeks, the Colts have rushed 30+ times in 4 games. On top of that, Philip Rivers tends to spread the ball around. Over the same 5-game stretch, Rivers targeted 10+ receivers in 4 of 5 games.
If Pittman is still on your waiver wire, I’d spend a significant portion of your FAAB – or #1 waiver priority – to get him. Why? The remaining schedule for Pittman is the easiest in the NFL for wide receivers: Tennessee, Houston, Las Vegas, Houston, and Pittsburgh. Don’t be fooled. The Steelers defense gives up plenty of receiving yards to wide receivers. Pittman could be a league winner!
Honorable Mention: On the flip side, D.J. Moore has a bear of a schedule ahead. Over the past two weeks, Moore has been heating up (a la NBA Jam rules), including a 7 reception on 11 targets for 127 receiving yards performance this Sunday. He also added a 21-yard run. Impressively, he has put up back-to-back strong performances with different QBs under center. Even more impressive, going into this week, Moore was averaging 12.6 yards before contact per reception, 8th best in the league. All that said, the Panthers’ rest of season schedule is roooooogh for opposing WRs. After a favorable match-up next week against Minnesota, Moore has a bye week (so, zero points) followed by Denver, Green Bay, and Washington. If you’ve got a playoff spot locked up, shop Moore to someone who needs a win this week.
Tight End: Noah Fant
| Format | Fantasy Points Scored | Avg FPPG |
| Non-PPR | 6.2 | 5.4 |
| FanDuel (0.5PPR) | 8.7 | 7.1 |
| PPR | 11.2 | 8.8 |
In a week where we saw a hefty number of tight end TDs, Noah Fant wasn’t one of them. But he did reel in 4 balls on 5 targets for 55 yards against a tough Miami secondary. “Jeremy, he finished as the tight end 15. Why are we talking about him?” I’m glad you asked, me.
Over the past 5 games, since returning from his injury, Fant has seen fewer than 5 targets only once. Going into Week 11, he was 3rd among TEs in yards after catch per reception (6.5) and the only TE with more broken tackles was Travis Kelce. When Fant gets the ball, he always has the potential to shed defenders and get those tough yards after the catch. Unfortunately, he is only seeing 15.8% of Denver’s red-zone targets, which is tied with Tim Patrick for the team lead. That could explain why Fant has not scored a TD since Week 2.
Given the general state of TEs, you may want someone with a safe-ish floor and potential upside. That is Noah Fant. Looking towards the playoffs, Fant has one of the easiest schedules, with Carolina, Buffalo, and the Chargers in Weeks 14 to 16. If you stream TE, consider stashing Fant. If he’s already rostered, you can probably offer your WR4 who would otherwise be riding your bench in the playoffs.
Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert returned to form, catching 5 balls on 6 targets for 77 yards and 1 TD. That was the first time since Week 1 that he had 5+ catches and more than 34 receiving yards. Some people (see: me) might have been short-sighted enough to drop Goedert after his lackluster performance the week prior. The Eagles offense looked terrible against the Browns, and Wentz was constantly under pressure. Sadly, that appears to be a recipe for Goedert to succeed. Looking forward, Goedert’s schedule is a mixed bag, with bad match-ups in Weeks 13 and 14 (Green Bay and New Orleans) and good match-ups in Weeks 12, 15, and 16 (Seattle, Arizona, and Dallas).
Defensive Lineman: Brian Burns
| Format | Fantasy Points Scored | Avg FPPG |
| FantasyPros | 16.75 | 9.02 |
Brian Burns doing his best Spiderman impression, shooting webs all over the opposing team’s offensive line to get to the QB. In Week 11, he had five tackles (2 solo, 3 assisted), 1 tackle for loss, 2 sacks, and 1 pass defended. On the season, Burns has 6 sacks and 3 forced fumbles to go with 41 tackles. So far, he has posted less than 5.5 fantasy points in only 3 games. He continues to be a must-start in IDP leagues with DL slots and definitely should be rostered in all standard IDP leagues.
Defensive Back: Ashtyn Davis
| Format | Fantasy Points Score | Avg FPPG |
| FantasyPros | 21.00 | 6.63 |
Ashtyn Davis, the rookie third-round pick out of Cal, is seizing the day and becoming a bright spot on an otherwise forgettable New York Jets team. Since safety Bradley McDougald went on IR in Week 7, Davis moved from special team player to every-down starter. In Week 11, he racked up 12 tackles (8 solo, 4 assisted), 1 tackle for loss, and 1 fumble recovery. Davis could very well be the NFL’s next #TackleMachine at the free safety position. With the Jets’ defense often on the field, Davis will have many more days to seize. If you’re struggling with your IDP starters, Davis is almost certainly available on the waiver wire.
Linebacker: Isaiah Simmons
| Format | Fantasy Points Scored | Avg FPPG |
| FantasyPros | 22.25 | 5.25 |
Finally, Arizona’s highly-touted, defensive multitool showed up! Isaiah Simmons balled out on Thursday Night Football when he racked up 10 tackles (9 solo, 1 assisted), 2 tackles for loss, and 1 sack against the Seahawks. Over the past 3 games, his snap shares have skyrocketed. Prior to Arizona’s Week 8 bye, Simmons averaged just 13.1 snaps per game. Since the bye, that has nearly tripled to 37.3 snaps per game. The Cardinals invested a top-10 pick in Simmons, and it looks like head coach Kliff Kingsbury is finally ready to unleash his hybrid defensive weapon. As a bonus, Simmons is also eligible at DL in some leagues, which is HUGE value if you need to start a DL.