Week 7: We Laughed, We Cried

 

Obviously, you’re not expecting a career-high five TDs each week out of Baker. Particularly when your offensive line has struggled. Going into Week 7, Baker had a protection rate of 78.2%, ranking 28th among QBs, just above Justin Herbert. Unlike Herbert, who had completed 53.5% of his passes when facing pressure (5th best in the league), Baker had only completed 36.7% of his passes under pressure (20th in the league).

 

And, as noted above, he’ll be without OBJ possibly for the rest of the season. According to FantasyData.com, only Mitch Trubisky has a worse accuracy rating than Mayfield this year. In the coming weeks, the Browns square off against the Raiders, Texans, Eagles, Browns and Titans, all of which are favorable match-ups for QBs. So Baker could repeat a strong performance in one or more of the coming weeks, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

 

With Andy Dalton at the helm, the Cowboys’ offense has suffered all around. But Zeke’s production hasn’t wildly dropped off. Over the past two weeks without Dak Prescott, Zeke has averaged 12 rushes, 3.9 yards per carry, 6 targets, and 5.4 yards per target. Prior to that, he was averaging 17.8 rushes, 4.1 yards per carry, 6.4 targets, and 5.4 yards per target. Other than the drop off in rush attempts, his numbers look very similar under Dak and Dalton. The major difference: Zeke has scored zero TDs with Dalton (versus 6 TDs with Dak). 

 

Touchdowns are hard to predict. Stud runningbacks are hard to find. It’s possible that the Cowboys continue to struggle on offense and Zeke has few opportunities to find the endzone, particularly with a banged-up offensive line. Still, it’s hard to say “Sell Zeke” at his low point when the RB pool is so shallow. If you’re fortunate enough to have RB depth and can live without Zeke, perhaps you can look to upgrade at wide receiver. Bailing on Zeke now, though, seems premature.

 

Honorable Mention: On the other side of the Dallas-Washington game, Antonio Gibson quelled fears of a timeshare with J.D. McKissic, posting 128 rushing yards on 20 attempts and a touchdown. Washington didn’t even need to use Gibson in the passing game to trounce the Cowboys. If Gibson continues to see 5 targets, as he saw in each of the three prior weeks, he’s a locked and loaded RB2.

 

 

Would you believe that only three wide receivers see more air yards per catch than Agholar’s 15.0 air yards per reception? D.K. Metcalf, Kenny Golladay and Michael Gallup. That’s it. He’s also 21st among wide receivers in terms of average depth of target (14.0 yards). 

 

Agholar is also seeing more opportunities to make these big plays. In the first two games of 2020, Agholar was on the field for fewer than 20% of snaps. Since then, he’s averaged over 75% of snaps. For someone sitting on your waiver wires, Agholar looks like a potential mid-season stud to help you through the bye weeks, particularly since he is already past his Week 6 bye.

 

Honorable Mention: D.J. Moore lives! Catching 4 of 5 targets for 93 yards and 2 TDs, Moore is trending in the right direction. In each of the past three games, Moore has caught exactly 93 yards, which must be some sort of historical statistic. Importantly, has 3 TD catches over those games, something that has always eluded him. However, Moore has seen the 11th most redzone targets among wide receivers this year. Expect more, more, more for Mr. Moore.

 

 

Jonnu pointing one finger to the sky is appropriate. That’s how many receptions he had on Sunday. One stinking reception. In a game where the Titans trailed big and we saw 30 pass attempts from Ryan Tannehill, Jonnu snagged only 1 of his 4 targets for a meager 9 yards. But isn’t Jonnu a touchdown machine?

 

This season, the bulk of Jonnu’s production has been based around his 5 TDs in 6 games. Going into Week 7, Jonnu was 14th among TEs in endzone targets, 13th in snap percentage (75.7%), and 22nd in air yards per reception (8.8 yards). When creating a recipe for repeated success, these are terrible ingredients. However, the TE landscape is atrocious. So it’s not likely you have a better option than Jonnu available. You should prepare that Jonnu is more boom-bust than the Kelce/Kittle tier of tight ends.

 

Honorable Mention: Harrison Bryant (who?!) caught 4 of 5 targets from Baker Mayfield for 56 yards and 2 TDs against the Bengals. Perhaps Mayfield found his replacement for OBJ in a rookie tight end from Florida Atlantic University. Go Owls! More likely, this will be Bryant’s best game of the year. Going into Week 7, he averaged just 2 targets per game and about 50% of snaps. Again, not a recipe for tight end consistency. That said, he’ll be a waiver wire pick-up in many leagues.