Is Hunter Henry Worth the Risk?

The Los Angeles Chargers look completely different from a year ago. Philip Rivers is out, so is Melvin Gordon. In more than a decade, the Chargers will have a new starting QB, with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert on the roster. And Austin Ekeler is primed to have a breakout season, with an increased workload and an improved offensive line. That said, from a fantasy value standpoint, there is a lot of ambiguity when it comes to the Chargers receiving core. In an offseason shortened by Covid-19, it is difficult to predict whether the new QBs on the roster have time to adjust to the offensive scheme, not to mention build chemistry with the receivers on the team. And with multiple players having injury history and the Chargers playing within one of the toughest divisions in football, this is one of those teams where the risk of drafting a player is perhaps too high when considering the upside. That said, with strong wide receiver depth in the later rounds and with many owners prioritizing running backs in the early rounds, Hunter Henry is at a market value where it is difficult not to consider drafting him. Per Fantasy Pros, Henry is currently going around 82.7 in half-PPR 12 team leagues, equating to approximately TE8 on most draft boards. 

Why Take Henry

Although Henry’s injury history is a variable of concern (being active in just 64% of all playable games in his career thus far), he has also shown a level of on the field consistency that is in an elite category of tight ends. Looking at a yards per routes ran and targets perspective, Henry ranked within the top fifteen of each category when filtering out tight ends with insignificant target volume. In terms of yards per routes ran, Henry ranked 12^th amongst all tight ends (1.67 yards), with similar numbers to Zach Ertz, Austin Hooper, and Hayden Hurst. In terms of a yards per target perspective, Henry ranked 9^th amongst tight ends (8.8 yards), ahead of Mark Andrews and Tyler Higbee. In the same breath, another metric worth mentioning is that Henry ranked 8^th amongst tight ends in terms of yards (54.33) and targets (6.16) per game. Again, Henry’s production from this standpoint is analogous to Mark Andrews and Tyler Higbee. And when using Henry’s run-rate of production in 2019, the Chargers tight end is modelled out to have finished just ahead of Mark Andrews in terms of targets and yardage, along with the 4^th most touchdowns at the tight end position (tied with Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph, and Austin Hooper). All the above suggests one thing—when healthy and on the field, there are not many options better than Henry at the tight end position, outside of perhaps Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Should Henry be able to stay healthy an entire season, his value should provide more upside than his current ADP. And even if Henry does not play every game in 2020, his high floor should still return top 10 tight end value.

Another upside to Hunter’s game is his versatility. In terms of a snap by position ratio, Henry lined up in the slot 38% of the time and out wide 14% of the time, an aggregate snap count of 53%. In terms of production in the slot, Henry averaged 7.76 yards per target, which ranked ahead of tight ends such as Darren Waller and Mike Gesicki. And from a receiving direction perspective, Henry thrives in the middle of the field out of the slot and infield positions, with 418 yards and 3TDs.  Henry also showed some productivity on 20+ yards down the left side of the field, with 53 yards and 1TD. Looking at Tyrod Taylor’s passing direction outlook during 2015-2016, most of the QB’s production came on 20+ yard throws outside the hashes (especially in 2015). That said, Tyrod’s efficiency within the hashes on short yardage throws accounted for a large chunk of his production. Bringing this back to Henry, the Chargers versatile tight end provides high value in areas of the field where Tyrod thrives. Not to mention, Henry’s athleticism and size should provide a safety net in short yardage and red zone situations. 

Why the Risk is Not Worth the Reward

With Philip Rivers out of the picture, there are red flags at the quarterback position, all of which could diminish Henry’s fantasy value. Put bluntly, there is almost no chance Tyrod Taylor (nor Herbert for that matter) puts up strong enough numbers in the upcoming season to provide fantasy value to the Chargers receiving core. This is not to say Herbert does not have value in the future. But with a shortened offseason where teams have no preseason games nor much time to acclimate to new personnel and/or schemes, this is not the season where you want an unproven quarterback under center. In Tyrod Taylor’s case, he has not shown much production since 2016 (despite starting a couple games for the Browns in 2018). And even when starting in Buffalo, Tyrod’s mediocre efficiency and volume did not provide enough opportunities to the receivers to create much fantasy value. Tyrod has never thrown more than 436 attempts in a season, and there is no evidence to suggest this volume will increase in 2020. In the case of Herbert, he is just not ready to take over an NFL offense. It is tough enough for rookie quarterbacks to adjust to the complexities of the NFL in a normal offseason, even with a normal training camp schedule and a full preseason. But with a month of practice and no preseason games, Herbert does not have enough time to adjust to the talent level at the next level. Bringing this analysis back the Henry, the lack of continuity at quarterback position suggests that the overall volume and quality of passing is likely to decrease in 2020. With a decrease in overall passing efficiency and volume, it is likely Henry realizes a decrease touches, which in turn decreases his fantasy upside.

Another risk here is that the Chargers just do not appear to have much faith in Henry in terms of becoming a viable long-term option, driven mainly by injury concerns.  Of course, there is the injury risk. Henry has never played a full season—nothing suggests this will change. There was also the contract dispute, where now Henry is essentially on a 1-year prove it contract. Not to mention, Henry was also somewhat phased out of the offense by the end of 2019. In terms of an average snap count outlook over the majority of the season, Henry averaged approximately 58 snaps per game (whether infield or out wide). That said, between weeks 13 and 15, Henry saw a snap count decrease of approximately 27%. In turn, this decrease equated to a massive drop in targets and receptions, in comparison to the other weeks of the season. In this three-week period, Henry racked up 10 yards, 39 yards, and 29 yards respectively—nothing that would instill much confidence in fantasy owners. 

The Verdict 

Quite simply, there are a lot of “ifs” when it comes to Henry’s value this season. If Henry stays healthy all 16 games, it is conceivable he provides top 5 value at the position. And if Tyrod (or Herbert) somehow acclimates well enough into the Chargers offense in a shortened offseason, both in terms of scheme and chemistry, it is also conceivable Henry’s volume does not decrease. But the truth is, these “ifs” are nothing but that—ifs. And the risks do not stop here. There is the risk of cannibalization with Keenen Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler all commanding a material amount of the total passing volume.  Not to mention, in the current covid driven climate, Henry’s floor is diminished by the likelihood of a decreased workload (as explained above). 

At the same ADP, you can maximize draft value by selecting someone with similar upside and less risk—one such example being Jared Cook. Another option is to wait to draft a tight end (because you’ve waited this long) and take someone with a similar risk profile and a similar ceiling. In this latter option, some intriguing alternatives include Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee, and Mike Gesicki. That said, should you find yourself in a situation where you draft (or want to draft) Hunter Henry, make sure you do one of two things: 1) draft a handcuff; or 2) draft another starting caliber backup. Then again, you might just want to avoid the pick all together and circumvent the unneeded risk.