The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Tennessee Titans.
After a stellar rookie season, eventually finishing as the WR 21 in half-PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data, expectations for A.J. Brown are sky-high in the coming year. Brown played in all 16 regular season games and was the most targeted player on the Tennessee Titans last year. In total he had 52 receptions for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns, becoming the only rookie to reach the 1,000 receiving yard mark last season. Questions remain over whether the Titans can repeat their sublime ending to the 2019 season after Ryan Tannehill went 7-3 as the starter after replacing Marcus Mariota. Everything seemed to be going right for the Titans last year, and after losing to the eventual Super Bowl-winning Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, the team clearly demonstrated they wanted to continue what they’d started, paying two of their key offensive weapons in Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. So just how good will A.J. Brown be this year? And will he be worth the draft cost?
The upside
First and foremost, Brown is a physical specimen and has all the attributes to become a star in the league. In 2019 Brown reached an incredible 20.2 yards per reception, the second-highest figure in the league for receivers with at least 50 targets. The former Ole Miss receiver started the season with a bang, reaching the 100-yard mark against the Cleveland Browns and things really started to click once Tannehill replaced Mariota. Brown really showed what he is capable of in the final few weeks of the season, seeing over 100 yards in four of the final six weeks of the regular season – scoring five touchdowns in that period.
And with the Titans deciding not to address the receiver position this off-season, he now enters the 2020 season as the clear number one target. In his rookie season, Brown saw 19.7% of the Titans’ targets, seeing 84 in total. With very little competition in the team, the number of targets is likely to see a significant uptick this year. It’s no surprise that people are getting excited at the prospect of 100-plus targets after his stellar introduction to the NFL last year.
Reasons to be fearful
The biggest concern surrounding the Titans in the coming year is the expected regression, particularly in the red zone. Tennessee were top in TDs/red zone appearances at .756, according to Football Outsiders, comfortably ahead of the Ravens in second with .672. On top of this, the team’s TD/FG ratio stood at 6.25 in 2019, again the highest in the league and well ahead of the Giants in second at 3.42.
Tannehill’s production is sure to regress after he threw a touchdown on 7.7% of his attempts last year – a stat only bettered by Lamar Jackson at 9%. The big question is, how significantly will this affect A.J. Brown’s fantasy production, after finding the end-zone eight times last year?
A clear concern for Brown in the coming year is how reliant the team became on Derrick Henry, and whether we will see a similar run-heavy approach this season – particularly now Henry has been paid. The playoffs appeared to be a clear demonstration of how the Titans would like to play with Tannehill only completing 15 passes in the first two playoff games, and the results for Brown were far from pretty. Over the three post-season games, Brown had just five receptions for 64 yards, and saw just one reception in each of the first two games.
While Brown is too good for this to be a regular occurrence, it should not be forgotten on draft night. And this is the biggest fear for many when drafting Brown. Although his current ADP at the beginning of the fourth round as the 16th wide receiver taken appears to be fairly reasonable, this could sky-rocket in the coming weeks and the concern is that in home leagues, you may need to take Brown much earlier. As a result, it will be important to be very aware of the other options available, with high-upside receivers such as DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley being drafted in a similar spot.
Answering the question
Taking everything into account, despite the clear possibility of regression in 2020, Brown looks set to be a great choice in drafts – just as long as his cost doesn’t rise astronomically. Yes, he will probably be a boom-bust kind of player and at times he may leave fantasy owners disappointed, but he could be a league-winning type of pick we all want. As a result, shrewd owners may look at roster construction when selecting A.J. Brown, pairing him with safer choices elsewhere. Time will tell whether those who take the risk will be rewarded.
