Is Mike Evans Too Risky?

The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

For years, MIKE EVANS has been a fantasy rock star. In 2019, he finished as the WR3 on a fantasy points per game basis and the WR15 overall. In 2018, he finished as the WR8 overall. In 2017, the WR18. In 2016, the WR2. In 2015, the WR24. And in his 2014 rookie season, the WR12.

Yet, if you had Mike Evans on your roster in 2019, you didn’t feel safe. Evans posted three weeks of 180+ receiving yards, but had no other weeks with over 100 receiving yards. This also included five weeks with fewer than 70 receiving yards.

The volatility was in part due to the emergence of his teammate Chris Godwin, who finished as the WR2 both overall and on a fantasy points per game basis. Although Godwin posted six weeks with fewer than 70 receiving yards, he balanced that with six weeks with over 100 receiving yards, including three weeks with 150+ receiver yards.

Now, we insert the variables in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, namely a new quarterback in Tom Brady, an un-retired hall of fame tight end in Rob Gronkowski. Will Evans continue his long history of finishes as a top-24 wide receiver, or his 2019 volatility too much of a concern for fantasy owners? Evans, whose current ADP is WR8, is going in early 3rd round in half-PPR drafts.

Is Mike Evans too risky with the emergence of Chris Godwin and the new Bucs offense?

The Downside

Despite being a big-bodied wide receiver, Evans struggles to reel in contested catches. In 2019, he ranked 60th(!!) among wide receivers with a 32% contested catch rate. That was despite Evans seeing the 10th most contested balls thrown his way. Godwin saw only 3 fewer contested targets and yet managed to come down with the ball 64% of the time, tied for 6th best among wide receivers with Michael Thomas.

In prior years, however, Evans posted higher contested catch rates (61% in 2018, 54% in 2017). So perhaps Evans is more sure handed than 2019 would have you believe. Let’s look at his “true catch rate”. If we narrow Evans’ targets down to only those that were catchable, his “true” catch rate ranked him as WR45 in 2018 (81.9% rate) and WR31 in 2019 (82.7%). By comparison, Godwin’s true catch rate in 2019 was 91.5%, which was third best among wide receivers behind Michael Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald.

It doesn’t help that Evans has difficulty getting separation from defenders. Last year, Evans only averaged 1.2 yards of separation, which was 69th among wide receivers. In 2018, he was only slightly better at 1.28 yards of separation, 62nd among wide receivers. By comparison, Tom Brady’s favorite target in New England, Julian Edelman, averaged 1.68 yards in 2019 (19th among wide receivers) and 1.48 (32nd among wide receivers).

And if Brady is looking for a big bodied receiver down the field, why not throw to Rob Gronkowski? The tight end has historic report with Brady and, even in his injury-riddled 2018 season, posted comparable yards of separation (1.18 yards) and a better true catch rate (85.5%). Evans and Gronk may not play the same position, but Brady may look for them in similar situations. If that’s the case, why not go for the surer-handed option in Gronk?

The Upside

Although Evans doesn’t have the best hands, he nonetheless gets targets, even with Godwin on the field. In 2019, Evans was the 2nd most targeted receiver in the endzone in the entire league. He also saw 50% more endzone targets than Godwin. Although Godwin was on the field more often than Evans (95.7% vs 89.6%), both were top-24 receivers in terms of snap share. Head Coach Bruce Arians put Evans and Gowin on the field A LOT. Despite seeing fewer snaps than Godwin, according to Fantasydata.com, Evans did see a greater percentage of targets than Godwin when they were on the field.

And targets equal fantasy goodness. Evans also saw a whopping 7.8 fantasy points per target! That was tied for 6th best in the league among wide receivers. Of the six others, only Amari Cooper (978) saw more targets than Evans (918).

Plus, and I cannot understate this, Mike Evans will not have Jameis Winston throwing him the ball. Yes, Jameis was a fantasy star because of his sheer volume of passes and willingness to “huck it, chuck it, FOOTBALL” down the field. But ifEvans isn’t the most sure-handed receiver, wouldn’t he benefit from a more accurate quarterback? Tom Brady is that quarterback. If you look at completion percentage, Brady and Jameis had nearly identical stats (60.8% to 60.7%). If we look at how good of a passer they were when backing out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes, a “true passer rating”, there is clear separation. Brady’s true passer rating in 2019 was 88.6, 16th among QBs. Winston’s was 76.8, 29th among QBs. Brady’s decision making and experience could do wonders for Evans and the Bucs offense writ large.

Answering The Question

Is Mike Evans too risky to draft in the 3rd round?

Probably. Evans has historically performed well overall for fantasy football. But last year’s week-to-week volatility might be a sign of things to come. With Godwin’s emergence and the addition of Gronk, Evans might not be the 1st or 2nd best passing option for Tom Brady. That is not to say Evans isn’t the most or 2nd most talented receiver on the field. But Brady may view Godwin and Gronk as more reliable receivers. Without Tom’s trust, Evans risks another year of boom and bust weeks with a strong overall finish. Having a top-24 wide receiver on your roster isn’t very satisfying if you miss the playoffs because of too many bust weeks. Evans has huge upside, but look for stability elsewhere in the 3rd round.