IDP Impact In The NFC South

Welcome, 4EYEDfans!  I hope you all are staying safe!  I know the Fantasy In Frames crew is preparing for football, and I hope you are as well!

Welcome to the 6th installment of my new series, titled “IDP Impact,” where I will take you from division to division, highlighting the IDP relevant players for each team.  A team-based approach focusing on the scheme, with attention to the offensive side of the ball, should help us identify my personal favorite IDP safe plays and deep dive targets.

For this installment, we will head to the NFC SOUTH!

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look a lot different than they did last year!  Well, the offense will look different!  Obviously the addition of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are the big changes for the 2020 season.  While the offense is taking on a new look, the defense is hoping that continuity and a couple of nice additions can help an improving defense.

Todd Bowles is entering his 2nd year with this Tampa Bay defense and has some nice IDP relevant pieces to work with.  The Bucs were an interesting defense in 2019.  While they led the league in rushing yards against, they were 30th in passing yards allowed.  While this may look as if they are just super leaky against the pass, we have to assume that the league’s leading passing offense put their opponents in a “must-pass” scenario more times than not.  While yardage allowed is great for the defense as a whole, it is the turnovers, sacks, and tackles that lead to IDP relevance.  Those were some areas that the Bucs did have some success.  They ranked 5th in total turnovers and had the NFL’s sack leader!

The defensive line in Tampa Bay is big, vicious, and designed to stop the run.  While stopping the run and filling gap assignments doesn’t always translate to IDP success, it does lend to linebacker success in IDP scoring.  Ndamukong Suh, the former 2nd overall pick, might not be the force he once was, but he is still destructive and very efficient against the run.  Suh’s contribution doesn’t just come in the form of tackles and sacks, it is most relevant in the evolution of Vita Vea!  Vea’s disruptive nature was evident last year (12 QB hits/22 QB pressures).  As mentioned earlier, the NT position isn’t one that IDP drafters are looking to add to their DL.

While the defensive line might not supply a steady stable of IDP players, the LB core in TB is full of potential!  As amazing as the WR core for the Bucs is, this LB group might be the most impressive unit on the Bucs.  Let’s begin with the fireworks!  OOH, too soon?  Jason Pierre-Paul, coming off a season in which he only played in 10 games, had one of the best seasons of his 8-year career.  Playing in only 586 snaps, JPP had 8.5 sacks, 27 tackles (24 Solo), and averaged a solid 10.1 fppg.  While all of the above is encouraging, the scary neck injury in 2018, coupled with the fact that nearly 60% of his production came over the final 2 weeks, lowers his IDP stock for me a bit.

If you’re looking to strike LB gold in IDP formats tho, take your pick of the following:

• Shaq Barrett:  Last years’ sack leader (19.5).  Averaged 14.1 FPPG.  Playing this year on the franchise tag, I expect Barrett to be among the league leaders in sacks again this year, but back to back sack leaders is a very difficult task.  With the sudden explosion in numbers after years of mediocrity in Denver, it’s easy to see why he is being drafted late in drafts.  The low tackle totals, coupled with a pass-rush only pedigree keeps his floor very unstable.
• Lavonte David:  Maybe the most stable floor of all in TB.  Averaged a solid 13.1 fppg last year, David is coming off of his 3rd straight 100+ tackle season in TB.  His acclimation to the Bowles’ system is even more encouraging to his stock.  Last year he was allowed to fly all over the field and should be given the same opportunities this year.  Currently being drafted as a low-end LB1, David should return LB1 value, but it remains to be seen if the tackle totals will drop if the offense is not turning the ball over as much, thus keeping the defense off the field as much. David should keep the floor stable as he leads the LB core in passes defended to complement the tackles.
• Devin White:  Maybe the highest ceiling of all!  Last years’ 5th overall pick had a great rookie season, despite missing 4 games with a knee injury.  White racked up 91 tackles (58 solo), 4 TFL, 3PD, 3 FF, 4 FR, and the icing on the cake-2 fumble recovery TD’s.  While building in return TD into a players’ projection is dicey, the assumption that improvement with a full 16 game season is more than enough to get excited about the upside of White.  After averaging 13.8 fppg, LB1 is definitely the potential for this young and exciting player.

Finally, if you are looking to fill in a spot in your dynasty IDP league, Antoine Winfield Jr might be the one to look at!  The safety position this year could produce some elite safeties for some time to come.  Between Chinn, McKinney, and Winfield, the sky is the limit.  Winfield Jr comes from NFL pedigree.  His father, Antoine Winfield, was a Pro Bowl CB for the Bills and Vikings.  It’s that type of pedigree that gets me excited about the potential for Jr.  He excelled at the Univ. of Minnesota, despite struggling with injuries.  Winfield finished his final year at Minnesota with 88 tackles, 7 INT’s, 2 FF, and 3 sacks.  When not if, he is given the chance to play this year, expect some fireworks!

 

New Orleans Saints

 

The success of the New Orleans Saints in 2020 is one that many people are crediting to their offense, but I am here to tell you that the Saints’ defense will be very underrated.  Dennis Allen’s unit is returning the majority of its starters from 2019 and looks to continue building on the success he has brought with him in his past 3 years in N.O.

The defense has IDP relevant parts scattered all over, not to mention the fact there is a Pro-Bowler or All-Pro on the DL, in the secondary, and at LB.

Let’s start with the secondary.  Janoris Jenkins joined the Saints last year and brought with him a playmaking style that is anything but boring!  Jenkins has been in the top 10 in INT and Passes Broken up, but he also is in the top 10 for most TD’s allowed over the past 2 years.  In his 1 start with the Saints last year, he recorded 5 tackles, 2 PD, and 1 INT.  Considering the heavy pass volume in the NFC South, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Jenkins targeted a heavy amount, especially considering who is lining up opposite.  That would be Marshon Lattimore!  If your league rewards PD’s and Int’s heavy, then both Lattimore and Jenkins would be viable IDP targets, but in reality, they secede to the safeties due to the inconsistency of INT’s.

The Linebackers for the Saints are a solid group, but there is truly only 1 to target in most IDP drafts, and that is Demario Davis.  Davis led the Saints in tackles last year with 111 (87 solo) and was 3rd in PD (12).  2019 was the 3rd year in a row with 100+ tackles for Davis and chipped in 4 sacks.  Davis is an LB2 and should be treated like that come draft day.

As I mentioned above, the Saints have a Pro-Bowl caliber player on each unit, and the defensive lineman with the most IDP value is none other than Cameron Jordan!  Jordan was a monster last year!  Jordan averaged 10.5 fppg and isn’t showing any sign of slowing down.  Totaling 15.5 sacks last year, 15 TFL, and 53 tackles (37 solo),  Jodan has now put together 5 straight years of DL1 finishes.  If you’re looking for an early DL with one of the most stable floors, look no further than the 5x Pro Bowler in the Bayou.

 

Carolina Panthers

 

Very few teams in the NFL are experiencing as much change going into the 2020 NFL season as the Carolina Panthers!  Let’s begin with their new DC, Phil Snow.  Snow makes his return to the NFL in one of the most difficult situations imaginable.  Let’s see, you have no OTA’s, you lose Luke Kuechly, and you have a draft that is all defensive players, yet no one on one time to get them acclimated to your system.  Does that about cover it?  Well, it’s not all gloom and doom for the Panthers this year.  They drafted some really good players this past April, and they have some very good IDP targets!

On the defensive line, there is some heavy turnover from last year.  Stephen Weatherly comes over from Minnesota, Kawann Short is returning from injury, and rookie Derrick Brown has never played a snap in the NFL.  Another key draft pick was Yetur Gross-Matos, who is a good dynasty pick.

While the defensive line doesn’t exactly have any IDP targets, the LB core and secondary have a couple of names that I am very happy to announce at the draft table.

• Rookie Brian Burns showed some flashes in his limited playing time.  Totaling 7.5 sacks, 5 TFL, and 1 FF return for a TD in only 40% of the teams’ snaps.  He will have a chance to show what he can do this year off the edge.
• Tahir Whitehead is another FA acquisition of the Panthers this year.  Coming over from the Raiders, Whitehead averaged 9.6 fppg last year and has put together 4 straight 100+ tackle seasons between Oak and Det.  Last year was the first time in the past 3 seasons he hasn’t eclipsed the 10 ppg plateau but has an opportunity to get back to those numbers in a defense that looks to be on the field a lot this season.
• Jeremy Chinn is one of my favorite targets this year in both redraft and dynasty IDP drafts!  An absolute monster at SIU-C, he combines rare athletic ability with a penchant for the ball.  While I think that he will have his bumps and bruises getting acclimated to the NFL, especially in this odd offseason, he has the opportunity to be an immediate IDP impact.  He is taking over for Eric Reid, and his vacated 130 tackles.  While I don’t think he will immediately be the type of impact player that Reid was, he is definitely going to have his time to shine.  Daniel Jeremiah (@movethesticks) has Chinn as his steal of the draft.  You can watch that here.

Finally, my IDP impact player for the Carolina Panthers is Shaq Thompson.  Last year, Thompson played in 14 games, averaged 12.6, and now has the retirement of Luke Kuechly and his 144 vacated tackles.  While the retirement of Kuechly is definitely negative for the defense as a whole, it really can be beneficial for the IDP forecast.  Currently being drafted as a low-end LB2/LB3, Thompson has the opportunity to see heavy tackle volumes and build on the 11 TFL, and 3 sacks he registered in 2019.

 

Atlanta Falcons

 

The Atlanta Falcons are exactly who you think they are!  They are going to throw the ball more than any other team, and just try to slow you down on defense enough to win ballgames!  The defense last year ranked 23rd last year overall but made improvements from 2018.

The Falcons added AJ Terrell in the draft and brought in Dante Fowler at defensive end.  Fowler had an encouraging year last year, averaging 11.7 fppg, but that is bound to regress with the lack of an Aaron Donald type presence to redirect attention away from him.

While the Falcons have multiple offensive talent to target in drafts, they really only have 1 player on the defensive side, and that is Deion Jones. Jones is looking to really bounce back from what many expected to be his evolution into the upper tier of LB.  Jones only averaged 10.4 fppg after a shortened 2018 in which he averaged nearly 16 ppg and an amazing 2017 sophomore season in which he hovered around that 15-16fppg threshold!  The departure of De’Vondre Campbell will truly open up the middle of the field, and leave more room for Deion to gobble up all the tackles.  Jones definitely has the ability and the opportunity to deliver LB1 value.  Recently named one of the top 1o coverage linebackers (click here to read), the sky is the limit for his upside, but you will have to invest early for his services.  Currently being drafted in the top 20 of IDP formats, his floor, barring a recurrence of the foot injury that cost him the majority of his 2018 season.

 

That wraps up my coverage of the NFC South.  Thank you for taking the time to read this, and as always, if you have any questions or comments, you can find me @natemarcum on twitter.

Stay safe folks!