Courtland Sutton: The Early Draft Conundrum

The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Denver Broncos.

The Denver Broncos were a bottom feeder team most of the regular season in 2019. In the twelve-week period to start the season, the Broncos won just three games (none of which were against notably strong opponents). During this part of the schedule, ineffective pass blocking and quarterback efficiency defined the team in this period.  That said, the performance of Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen heavily impacted the overall ineffectiveness of the Broncos passing attack.  One such example supporting this hypothesis is Flacco’s average time in the pocket and average time to throw in the pocket, both of which ranked ~20^th in the league. And when holding the ball 2.5 seconds in the pocket or more (for context, his average per snap was 4.8 seconds), defenses sacked Flacco 23 times in 8 games. Brandon Allen did not perform much better, finishing 2019 with a completion rating of 46.4%. Entering week 13, however, the Broncos made a quarterback change that immediately reinvigorated the team, eventually winning 4 of the last 5 games of the season (only losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions). Drew Lock took over the quarterback job and instilled confidence in the organization, Broncos fans, and fantasy football owners alike.  

One of the only optimistic spots in relation to the Broncos’ 2019 season was the emergence of second-year wideout, Courtland Sutton. With approximately 400 more yards and 30 more receptions, Sutton massively improved upon a strong rookie campaign. In fact, Sutton established enough confidence with the Broncos head office to part ways with the expendable veteran, Emmanuel Sanders. Juxtaposing the strong team finish, along with the key acquisitions made in the draft and free agency, many fantasy analysts have been extremely bullish on the Broncos offense, entering 2020. At the crux of this hype, Sutton is one of the driving factors of this valuation, with his current ADP in half-PPR leagues approximately 4.035 in 12 team leagues (per the chart below, provided by Fantasy Football Calculator). Per Fantasy Pros, Sutton’s stock is currently approximated at WR16, one spot ahead of his finish in 2019. The question is then, is Sutton overvalued at the current ADP? Or does Sutton’s WR1 potential justify the high valuation? 

Reasons for Optimism

Looking from an efficiency perspective, Sutton’s historical performance and growth provide a positive outlook in 2020.  In terms of yards per route ran, Sutton ranked 19^th in the league, irrespective of position and when filtering out players with insignificant sample sizes. And when only looking at wide receivers, Sutton ranked 13^th in this same category—ahead of players such as Kenny Golladay, DeAndre Hopkins, and DJ Moore (amongst other notable names). Again, when filtering out wide receivers with insignificant sample sizes, Sutton ranked 17^th in the league in terms of his deep pass catch percentage, ahead of noteworthy names such as Julio Jones, Tyler Lockett, and Kenny Golladay (all of which had an analogous number of attempts on routes 20+ yards or more). From this same standpoint, Sutton also ranked 6^th in the league in terms of yardage. When looking at overall efficiency per play, there is perhaps only a handful of players who outperformed Sutton in 2019—all of which are household names in the NFL. To add more color here, one such player who is the definition of efficiency, Michael Thomas, only ranked 0.1% higher than Sutton in terms of overall drop percentage (irrespective of the distance of the route ran). As such, it is arguable that Sutton is perhaps undervalued from an overall efficiency per snap standpoint. 

Another point to support Sutton’s value is the scheme and surroundings in Denver. Per a conference call with a new offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, Sutton is an extremely dynamic wideout who thrives in many areas of the field. The Broncos passing attack ran through Sutton in 2019, with approximately 30% of targets going his way—a number that puts him ahead of Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, and Chris Godwin.  To add more context, the Broncos ranked just 27^th in terms of passing volume, making this stat line above even more impressive. In Pat Shurmur’s west coast scheme, Sutton is in a situation that could have him see an increase in volume. 

A final point of optimism is Sutton’s elite size and speed combination and, in turn, the safety net this provides Drew Lock. Sutton has the prototypical receiver build and is favorable in matchups against almost any cornerback in the NFL.  Juxtaposing these intangibles, Sutton’s value can grow exponentially, should he be able to increase his touchdown volume. Per playerprofile.com, Sutton ranked 9^th in the league in terms of red zone targets. Should Sutton be able to recreate (or exceed) this production in 2020, then it is conceivable that Sutton outperforms the ADP in which the market is currently reflecting, assuming all other stats remain constant.  

Why he is overvalued 

With the Broncos offense now crowded with weapons, expect the other personnel to cannibalize some of Sutton’s volume. Sutton is not going to command the same volume of the team’s total target share. The Broncos prioritized the wideout position this offseason, drafting Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler in high premium rounds. Jerry Jeudy was a target machine in Alabama and projects to emerge in the NFL out the gate, whereas, Hamler should take the top off defenses. When factoring the potential production of these rookies with the potential growth of Noah Fant and an emphasis on the run game to take the pressure off their inexperienced quarterback, Sutton’s volume is modeled out to decrease. And with Sutton having lower-end value in terms of receptions (72) when looking at the elite tier of guys, a decrease in volume is a material hit to the current valuation—especially in PPR and half-PPR formats.

Although Sutton’s red zone efficiency provides WR1 upside, Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay project to cannibalize a material number of attempts in this area of the field. Not only did Gordon and Lindsay both have 30+ attempts in the red zone last season, but Gordon ranked 8^th in the league in terms of goal-line carries. Although individually these numbers will decrease on a load share basis, collectively this tandem is expected to cannibalize Sutton’s 2019 production. Contrasting the inexperience of Drew Lock with the red zone efficient running back tandem, Sutton is likely to regresses in terms of targets in this area of the field—in turn, shortening the ceiling of his fantasy value. 

In the same breath, Sutton’s value also hinges on the growth of Drew Lock. New offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, is set to bring in a west coast scheme that should spread the field and is conducive to Lock’s gun slinging style of quarterback play (not to mention, this is a similar system to what he played in college). In 2019, Lock had one of the highest completion percentages when under pressure (51.2%), a high volume of red zone attempts per game (at 5.4p/g, this is analogous to Russell Wilson), and an adjusted completion % of 73.6% (ranking similarly to Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray). In terms of some qualitative measures, however, Lock showed some typical rookie blemishes in 2019: trouble reading disguises, too many risky throws resulting (or almost resulting) in turnovers, and lacking aggressiveness downfield.

Bringing this analysis back to Sutton, there are some legitimate risks here. The turnover potential shaves away volume from Sutton, not to mention is a momentum killer to the continuity of this offense. Again, the run game is projected to cannibalize red zone attempts, which lowers Sutton’s WR1 upside. And the lack of aggressiveness downfield also eats away at some of Sutton’s value, who ranked 6^th in terms of yardage on targets of 20 yards or more. As such, Sutton’s upside hinges on the improvement of Lock’s in game performance and efficiency.

The Verdict 

Although Sutton possesses the intangibles to grow into a top 15 WR in fantasy football, the risks of volume cannibalization and quarterback performance are too high to justify the current ADP. Pat Shurmur is not only expected to lean on the run game to take the pressure off the inexperienced Drew Lock but is also expected to spread the passing targets in his west coast scheme. As such, with Sutton’s volume modeled out to decrease, so should his fantasy value. In terms of maximizing value, it is crucial to not overexpose your roster to risk in the early rounds of drafts—this is what your bench is for. At around the same ADP, there are other options that can potentially provide more value than the current ADP. 

On a projected attempt basis alone, Sutton is most certainly not a WR1. And when factoring in the risks, Sutton’s low-end WR2 floor suggests the current ADP is overvalued.