Is Terry McLaurin In For A Breakout Season?

The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question, from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season, is the Washington Football Team.

To say that a LOT of things have changed in the Washington D.C. football landscape in 2020 would the understatement of the year. The team underwent another coaching regime change with the addition of Ron Rivera as head coach, Scott Turner as offensive coordinator, and Jack Del Rio as defensive coordinator. The team changed its actual NAME after years of protest and the recent financial threats they received from team sponsors if they didn’t change their name. While I’m OK with the name change I’m not OK with the loss of the hashtag #HTTR. I mean….what are we as Washington Fans going to say now, #HTTWFT?! Actually, that was pretty fun to type so MAYBE I’ll let that slide. The biggest change of all is the amount of hope this fan base has for its football team now. There’s barely any left. From the hatred of the team’s name change to hatred of the organization’s role in not protecting its female employees from sexual harassment, there is very little to cheer for in our nation’s capital from a football perspective.

Now, that I’ve set THAT peachy tone for this article, let me tell you what can bring hope back to this franchise and fan base. The answer, success. And there wasn’t someone on this offense for Washington that was more successful in 2019 than rookie Terry “F1” McLaurin, out of Ohio State who was ranked Pro Football Focus’s second-best rookie wide receiver talent this decade behind only Odell Beckham Jr. McLaurin in 14 games last season had 93 targets for 919 yards receiving, 7 TDs, and averaged 11.6 fantasy points/game. While that sounds just “OK” we must take into account how he ended his season. Remember, rookie players tend to “hit a wall” where they see a dip in production towards the end of their rookie season due to the unfamiliar length of schedule that they’re using to playing in pros compared to what they’ve been used to in college from both a mental and physical standpoint. While that tends to be the case more often than not, the exact opposite could be said for McLaurin. In his last three games played he averaged 15.8 fantasy points/game and 91 yards receiving per game on 7 targets/game. He was becoming THE offense in Washington.

However, despite his impressive rookie year things, as I mentioned above, ARE different in Washington. New coaching/scheme changes can always affect a player’s performance from year to year. Despite those changes, with the trajectory McLaurin had towards the end of his rookie year, we must answer the question is Terry McLaurin In For A Breakout Season in 2020?

Reason For Pessimissim

I mean that all depends on how you define breakout. If by breakout you mean is he due for a “2019 Chris Godwin” level of performance in 2020 I would say the answer is no. Godwin’s success was a product of a pass-heavy offense coupled with multiple receiving options freeing up space for him to have the level of success he had. That’s not the case in Washington. Furthermore, despite his late-season success, he wasn’t able to perform at a high level for the length of the entire season last year with “iffy” quarterback play which is pretty much what we’re expecting him to have THIS season. While his advanced metrics and player evaluations showed him being off the charts all those numbers don’t really mean much if he doesn’t have good quarterback throwing him the ball.

Let’s not, also, forget the emergence of Steven Sims, Jr last season. He, also, ended the season on a hot streak and even outperformed McLaurin averaging 17.1 fantasy points/game on more targets per game (9.7). If anything it was more McLaurin freeing up Sims in the receiving game versus Sims freeing up McLaurin. All of these reasons, while I’m impressed with his potential, are why I just can’t justify him as being on the cusp of having a breakout/monster season in 2020.

Reason For Optimism

Even with bad quarterback play in 2020, McLaurin was able to combat that by having the second-best contested-catch percentage, the 9th most air yards per target, the 3rd highest snap share % meaning he was on the field the 3rd most on offense than all the other receivers in the league,  and the 10th most yards per target. Volume is king in fantasy football and even bad real-life quarterbacks can make fantasy wide receivers look good. So with that in mind taking into account his high efficiency in 2019 coupled with the fact he’ll likely see an uptick in target volume due to the lack of receiving options on this team, outside of him and Steven Sims, it’s fair to say McLaurin is in for even more fantasy production than he had in his rookie year. In 0.5 PPR 12-team ADP leagues as listed on FantasyPros, McLaurin is the WR25 going in the 5th round of drafts around players like Stefon Diggs, T.Y. Hilton, Hunter Henry, and A.J. Green. It’s safe to assume that he’ll more than likely see a higher target volume than any one of those options, and with his level of efficiency as a receiver it is safe to assume he will be in the best position to outperform his ADP compared to those receiving options around him.

Answering The Question

Is Terry McLaurin In For A Breakout Season in 2020?

No. He might see a bump in fantasy point production on average but let us not make it seem like it will be some otherworldly thing. He’s still on a bad team with “iffy” quarterback play on an offense that will more than likely be focused on running the ball more to control games than passing the ball to do so. He’s not the next Chris Godwin or Michael Gallup. However, the volume he WILL get in combination with his efficiency will help him in having a high floor than those being drafted around him. If THAT is what you call a breakout, then YES he will.