Offensive Lines & Running Back Success In Fantasy
We hear plenty of stories about quarterbacks giving their offensive linemen gifts for keeping them upright. But where’s the love from running backs? (We see you, Christian McCaffrey.)
Are the top fantasy running backs so good they can say “Thanks, guys, but I’ll take it from here”? Or should the O-Line be asking for some R-E-S-P-E-C-T? Chicken or the egg? Yanny or Laurel? Tomato, tomato? OK, that last one doesn’t work so well written down.
Let’s look at some offensive line statistics and whether the O-line can make or break a running back’s fantasy value.
Rushing and Run Blocking
Our friends at Pro Football Focus grade each team’s rushing game and offensive line’s run-blocking ability. Here are the top 5 in each category:
| Team Rushing Grade | Team Run Blocking Grade |
| Baltimore (89.0) | Philadelphia (88.4) |
| Dallas (88.8) | Indianapolis (85.1) |
| Cleveland (88.8) | Baltimore (77.7) |
| Houston (87.6) | San Francisco (75.3) |
| San Francisco (85.1) | New Orleans (74.8) |
As you can see, a dominant run game is not always associated with dominant run blocking. For example, Baltimore gets top marks for rushing due in large part because they had the player with the 6th most rushing yards in the 2019…quarterback Lamar Jackson. Dallas also has a “mobile” quarterback in Dak, but with only 277 rushing yards to his name, PFF’s #2 grade clearly is the result of Ezekiel Elliot and his #4 finish with 1,357 rushing yards. Cleveland similarly rode the back of Nick Chubb’s 1,494 rushing yards.
Yet, when grading the team’s run blocking effectiveness (shout out to blocking tight ends!), only Baltimore and San Francisco make repeat appearances in the top 5. In fact, you have to scroll down to #29 to find Cleveland’s run-blocking grade. Similarly, PFF grades the Eagles at #1 for run blocking but #28 for rushing.
Does this mean Nick Chubb is a beast among men and can overcome terrible blocking schemes to rack up fantasy goodness? Does this also mean that Doug Peterson can’t find an efficient running back to save his life despite amazing O-line play?
As with everything else in life and fantasy football, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. But having a sense of which teams have “good” offensive lines can help you predict which running backs will see the most daylight in front of them to rack up yards and fantasy points.
Did the Top 10 Have Good Offensive Lines?
Here’s a comparison of the top 10 RBs in 2019 on fantasy points per game-basis (minimum 14 games played), their number of rush attempts and the accompanying PFF grades:
| RB (min. 14 gms) | FPPG | Attempts | Team Rushing Grade | Team Run Blocking Grade |
| C. McCaffrey | 25.8 | 287 | 67.1 (25th) | 59.3 (19th) |
| D. Henry | 19 | 303 | 83.4 (6th) | 73.8 (6th) |
| D. Cook | 19 | 250 | 76.9 (16th) | 63.3 (12th) |
| A. Jones | 18.1 | 236 | 79.5 (9th) | 70.6 (8th) |
| E. Elliott | 17.8 | 301 | 88.8 (T-2nd) | 71.8 (7th) |
| A. Ekeler | 16.4 | 132 | 77.1 (15th) | 52.2 (T-27th) |
| M. Ingram | 15.3 | 202 | 89.0 (1st) | 77.7 (3rd) |
| A. Kamara | 14.9 | 171 | 78.1 (11th) | 74.8 (5th) |
| N. Chubb | 14.8 | 298 | 88.8 (T-2nd) | 51.7 (29th) |
| L. Fournette | 14.8 | 263 | 63.1 (29th) | 54.5 (25th) |
Half of these running backs – Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Zeke, Mark Ingram, and Kamara – ran for teams ranked in the top 1/3 of the league in terms of both rushing and run blocking. Clearly, there is a correlation between good offensive lines and RB fantasy goodness.
But how do the other half live? How did they deliver with weaker offensive lines?
Targets and Pass Blocking
Rushing and run blocking only tells you part of the story. A number of the top 10 RBs in 2019 found fantasy gold through receiving yards. Does that mean that these RBs had the best pass-blocking offensive linemen?
Not necessarily. Here’s the same list of RBs with their targets and PFF’s pass-blocking grades for the offensive line:
| RB (min. 14 gms) | FPPG | Targets | Team Pass Blocking Grade |
| C. McCaffrey | 25.8 | 141 | 67.3 (T-22nd) |
| D. Henry | 19 | 24 | 76.2 (11th) |
| D. Cook | 19 | 63 | 63.0 (27th) |
| A. Jones | 18.1 | 68 | 81.2 (T-3rd) |
| E. Elliott | 17.8 | 71 | 78.3 (8th) |
| A. Ekeler | 16.4 | 108 | 59.9 (31st) |
| M. Ingram | 15.3 | 29 | 87.0 (1st) |
| A. Kamara | 14.9 | 97 | 82.9 (2nd) |
| N. Chubb | 14.8 | 49 | 71.9 (16th) |
| L. Fournette | 14.8 | 100 | 67.1 (24th) |
As you see, the top three RBs in terms of targets – McCaffrey, Ekeler and Fournette – each worked with offensive lines ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of pass blocking. This could be the result of a quarterback not having enough time to let wide receivers’ routes develop and being forced to check the ball down to the running back. It also may be that the running back is just the most talented receiver on the field.
No matter the reason, a running back without a strong run-blocking O-line can still find a path to fantasy success through the air, even if the linemen are merely adequate (or flat out bad) at defending the pass.
Path of Least (or Most) Resistance
Another potential theory behind RB fantasy success is simple math: one defender is easier to block than two. In other words, defensive schemes matter.
Running backs will run into (ha, jokes) all sorts of defensive alignments. In a “base” defense, there are 7 defensive players “in the box”, the area in front of the offensive line. If there are more than 7 players in the box, it is called a “stacked front”. If there are fewer than 7 players, it is a “light front”.
In theory, a running back should amass more yards against a light front than a base front and fewer yards against a stacked front than a base front.
Here is the same top 10 RBs and the percentages of stacked, base and light fronts they faced in 2019:
| RB (min. 14 gms) | FPPG | Stacked | Base | Light |
| C. McCaffrey | 25.8 | 13.6% | 32.1% | 53.0% |
| D. Henry | 19 | 22.4% | 39.9% | 36.3% |
| D. Cook | 19 | 32.1% | 38.9% | 28.7% |
| A. Jones | 18.1 | 11.9% | 47.9% | 39.0% |
| E. Elliott | 17.8 | 15.6% | 41.5% | 42.9% |
| A. Ekeler | 16.4 | 9.8% | 26.5% | 62.1% |
| M. Ingram | 15.3 | 18.4% | 37.3% | 43.8% |
| A. Kamara | 14.9 | 19.3% | 33.9% | 45.0% |
| N. Chubb | 14.8 | 18.1% | 42.6% | 40.6% |
| L. Fournette | 14.8 | 32.1% | 38.9% | 28.7% |
We’re all over the map! Ekeler, Aaron Jones and CMC saw relatively few stacked boxes, while Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette and their respective offensive linemen stared at 8 or more in the box on nearly every third rushing attempt. Yet, they all finished in the top 10…?
Even within similar groups, the explanation for seeing light vs. base vs. stacked boxes may be situational. For example, Ekeler saw over 100 targets, likely causing the defense to treat him more as a wide receiver on the field and worry less about crowding the box to stop the run. Aaron Jones faced similar fronts but with only a modest 68 targets to show for it, likely the result of defensive coordinators being more concerned with Aaron Rodgers taking advantage of a stacked box to find open receivers.
Although informative, the defensive formation breakdowns don’t appear to have as strong of a correlation to running back fantasy success.
With free agency largely finished and the draft around the corner, be sure to track which teams make upgrades at the offensive line and which running backs may see increased roles in the passing game.
Have an interest in offensive line stats when it pertains to running back performance?
Hit me up on Twitter to talk about it @TheJKnobs
Statistics from ProFootballFocus.com and FantasyData.com