Upcoming Free Agents & The Fantasy Implications
Can you see it? Free Agency is on the horizon! It’s an especially interesting class this year. There are quite a few big-name runningbacks who will be looking to get paid, and the TE position has a couple of top-tier options available as well. Not to mention, there could be a landslide of quarterback movement, starting with the greatest one to ever play.
QB
Drew Brees & Tom Brady (NO & NE)
The chances of Brady and Brees not returning to New England and New Orleans next year are slim to none, especially considering the cap implications, but we’ve seen crazier things happen, and we need to prepare ourselves for the contingency. Brees is probably more likely to retire than to swap jerseys, while the opposite can be said for Brady, as he has already publicly stated that he will return for the 2020 season, but has refused to commit to a return to New England. Chances are, Brady is just trying to use his leverage to force the Patriots into adding significant talent on the offensive side of the ball. It’s also the “Patriot Way” to refuse to give the media any bit of information, so what he does (or doesn’t) commit to needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Still, it is certainly possible that Brady actually intends to explore all of his options and go to the best available opportunity, wherever that may be.
Dak Prescott (DAL)
No doubt, Dak’s value is at its absolute highest in Dallas. He has a former NFL quarterback (Kellen Moore) calling plays, he’s playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, and he’s throwing to an All-Star group of receivers. His departure would hurt not just his own value, but also Amari Cooper’s and Michael Gallup’s. Ezekiel Elliot’s value is likely immune to any kind of quarterback change, as he remains one of the most talented backs featured behind one of the league’s premier offensive lines.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
The Tennessee Titans would be crazy to let Tannehill hit the free agent market. Once he took over for Marcus Mariota, the Titans transformed into a winning football team and a near offensive juggernaut. Tanny was one of the main components (outside of Derrick Henry being an absolute monster) propelling them all the way to the AFC Championship. His departure would create a significant hole and would hurt the value of everyone playing in the offense. The player who would most benefit from his return is undoubtedly A.J. Brown, who is an emerging superstar who could go as high as the 2nd round next year with Tannehill under center.
Teddy Bridgewater (NO)
Teddy Bridgewater leaving the Saints may seem like one of the lesser moves in terms of fantasy implications, but it’s actually one of the major ones. Drew Brees has got two years left in the NFL, at best. That means that what happens with the Saints backup QB situation now will have dramatic effects on the outcomes of seasons to come. If the Saints retain Bridgewater and head into the future with him as their starter, we can expect their offense to continue to operate per usual. Michael Thomas has already shown this past year that he won’t miss a beat statistically with Bridgewater under center, and we know that Sean Payton is going to continue to scheme the ball into Alvin Kamara’s hands. Things get a lot more interesting if Bridgewater leaves for a starting job elsewhere.
Taysom Hill would become the de-facto backup and eventual starter. Can you imagine him as a full-time starter with Sean Payton calling plays? How high would his fantasy ceiling be? And how would Michael Thomas fare? What would it do for Alvin Kamara’s value? There are a lot of questions. If Bridgewater does leave, expect Hill to see even more action this upcoming year as the Saints prepare him for the future. If that happens, don’t be surprised if we’re having debates about his positional eligibility (like the Ty Montgomery debate of 2016) by midseason. Is Hill just a QB? Can you plug him in at WR? RB?? TE??? And where do we draw the line for a guy that is seemingly position-less?
Philip Rivers (LAC)
Essentially the entire Chargers offense is due to become free agents, and it all starts with Rivers. It’s more likely than not that he leaves as things just haven’t gone according to plan for him and the Chargers lately. Look for the team to turn to Tyrod Taylor as a stop-gap solution and draft a rookie QB fairly early. Taylor could be a sneaky late-round target at QB next year with his experience, dual-threat upside, and quality surrounding cast. However, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry (if Henry himself returns) would all need to be downgraded a bit with Taylor under center.
Jameis Winston (TB)
Winston’s value isn’t going to be very heavily affected by where he ends up. He’ll be a QB2 no matter what, even with his immense upside. You just can’t justify taking him as a QB1 since it seems as if he’s always just a few turnovers away from a permanent benching. However, where Jameis lands is going to heavily influence his WR’s value. Winston has shown a propensity to put up significant yardage and touchdown totals, so any WR tethered to him stands to benefit. That means that as good as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been, we need to be wary of overdrafting them in the event that Winston does leave town.
Jacoby Brissett (IND)
According to Colts GM Chris Ballard, “the jury is still out” on Brissett as a starting QB. But make no mistake, just about everyone involved would benefit from Brissett remaining the guy in Indy. He guided the team to a 5-2 start and had multiple touchdown passes in 5 of the first 6 games. The problem is that he only threw for 4 total touchdowns the entire rest of the season. But, a deeper look reveals a team that was completely ravaged by injuries, and that really needs to be taken into account. T.Y. Hilton missed 6 games and wasn’t fully healthy in many of the games he did play in. Marlon Mack missed a chunk of the year. So did backup Jordan Wilkins. Eric Ebron went on IR after Week 12. Jack Doyle dealt with injuries of his own. Dynamic rookie Parris Campbell missed essentially the entire season. Zach Pascal was the team’s leading receiver… so we really ought to take Brissett’s struggles with a grain of salt. He and the entire offense still possess significant upside behind one of the league’s better offensive lines, especially if they are able to add a piece or two this offseason.
Marcus Mariota (TEN)
Mariota is done in Tennessee, that much is for sure. What we don’t know for sure is whether or not he is going to be given a chance to start elsewhere. It will likely be to the detriment of his receivers if he is given that chance, but he will always posses a modicum of fantasy upside himself due to his own dual-threat abilities.
RB
Derrick Henry (TEN)
Somebody is going to pay Derrick Henry a ton of money this offseason. Hopefully, for Henry’s (and fantasy owners’) sake, it’s the Titans. Not many situations are more ideal. The Titans’ offensive line was ranked 4th in run blocking grade by Football Outsiders, they have shown a commitment to feeding Henry the ball, and with Ryan Tannehill, they’ve been one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league. If Henry leaves, it would open a massive opportunity in one of the more ideal situations for whoever steps into his place.
Kenyan Drake (AZ)
Going into this year, who would have thought that Kenyan Drake would come out as the second-most prized free-agent runningback? I’m not sure even Nostradamus could have seen this one coming. But here we are. Fantasy enthusiasts should all be rooting for Drake to remain in Arizona. He averaged the 3rd most fantasy points per-game amongst runningbacks after being traded, behind just CMC & Derrick Henry… Ya… He’s likely a 1st round pick next year if he stays. If he leaves, David Johnson would likely be given another chance as starter, and Chase Edmonds would become an intriguing late-round flier.
Melvin Gordon (LAC)
The writing is on the wall that Gordon is as good as gone in L.A. Hopefully, they don’t sign or draft anyone significant as his replacement, as that would allow Austin Ekeler to truly thrive as a fantasy asset. Ekeler’s value would be worth as much as a 2nd (or perhaps even 1st) rounder next year, depending on what the Chargers do to solve their QB situation. It would even make third-year backup Justin Jackson a possible flex candidate. For Gordon himself, his best bet is to go to a team without an established third-down back. His upside is significantly higher if he isn’t being used as just an early-down thumper (like he was this past year).
Kareem Hunt (CLE)
Hunt is a restricted free-agent, but he makes the list because he is the one guy we’re most rooting for to leave his current team and find a new one. Nobody in fantasyland wants to see two superstar backs eat into each other’s workloads and cap each other’s statistical upside. But right now, that’s the case in Cleveland. Hunt’s departure would probably create two stud fantasy runningbacks as a result, depending on where Hunt lands. Nick Chubb would be able to return to the superstar production that he produced early in the season with Hunt suspended, and Hunt could return to the statistical glory days like he had as a featured back in Kansas City.
Jordan Howard (PHI)
Jordan Howard was actually having a bit of a bounce-back year before he injured his shoulder and missed the rest of the season, and he was just starting to heat up, with 80+ rushing yards and a TD in each of his last 2 games. He had 7 TD’s on 129 touches, and averaged 4.4 YPC. If he returns to Philadelphia, be wary of overdrafting Miles Sanders. No matter how much more talented Sanders may be, we know that Coach Doug Pederson prefers to use a platoon. But if Howard is let go, and the Eagles fail to make any other significant additions at RB, Sanders has the 3-down chops to become a fantasy superstar (and likely 1st round pick).
Carlos Hyde (HOU)
Hyde showed us this past year that he’s still got something left in the tank. If he re-signs with Houston, he could carry flex value again. If he leaves, it opens up a major opportunity for Duke Johnson, who has been searching for his chance at a full-time gig. However, the most likely scenario is that Houston finds another early-down back to pair with Duke, even if they do choose to bring Hyde back.
Lamar Miller (HOU)
Lamar Miller quite possibly may have seen his last days as a meaningful fantasy contributor, or he could have a late-career renaissance in the way Hyde did this past year as Miller’s replacement. It all depends on where he lands. If he returns to Houston, we’d have a split backfield (potentially 3 ways), and nobody (in fantasyland) wants that. The best-case fantasy scenario would be Miller taking a clear backup job behind a stud back and doing nothing to muddy the waters.
LeSean McCoy (KAN)
McCoy was phased out of the Kansas City offense as the season wore on and even though he averaged 4.6 YPC, he didn’t quite pass the eye test. If KC moves on, it could allow Darwin Thompson a chance at a true breakout next year.
WR
Amari Cooper (DAL)
Cooper’s likely reached his statistical ceiling in Dallas, so we should all be rooting for him to remain a Cowboy. Dallas was 2nd in the league in passing yardage this past season, and Cooper’s shown a legitimate connection with Dak Prescott. Both players values are inherently tied to each other’s. Here’s hoping Dallas finds a way to bring both of them back. If Cooper leaves, get ready to see Michael Gallup go as high as the 2nd round.
A.J. Green (CIN)
Green is the major wildcard in this year’s free agent class. He could return to health and provide whichever quarterback (and offense) he plays for with a major boost. Or, his injuries could have finally caught up to him, and this could be the beginning of the end. Nobody really knows how it’s going to play out. John Ross’s stock would see a bump if Green leaves while Joe Burrow’s stock would see a bump if he stays.
Sammy Watkins (KC) (Cap Casualty)
We’re including Watkins because there’s a near-zero chance that he isn’t cut. With a cap figure of over 20$ million this upcoming year, it doesn’t even matter that the team is going to have to clear some cap space for a massive Mahomes extension. Watkins just costs too much, point blank. Still, someone out there is probably going to give him starting-caliber money, so he’s likely to retain his WR3 value. Look for promising youngster Mecole Hardman to step into Watkins’ place as a starter and really start to shoot up fantasy draft boards. Hardman could quite possibly be considered a WR2 by the time we reach the beginning of this next season.
Will Fuller (HOU) (Cap Casualty)
A Texans team lacking offensive talent can hardly afford to cut a player of Fuller’s talent, but with his cap number (over 10$ million) and injury history, they can hardly afford to pay him either. D-Hop could end up with an absolutely massive target share next year is Fuller does end up being let go.
Emmanuel Sanders (SF), Randall Cobb (DAL), Danny Amendola (DET)
Sanders, Cobb, and Amendola are all fringe fantasy assets at this point in their careers, no matter where they land. Their signings are more likely to affect their quarterbacks’ values than it is to affect their own, as their real value comes in providing their QB’s with one more solid veteran to throw to.
Robby Anderson (NYJ)
Anderson has been the kind of fantasy player who seems to do nothing in starting lineups and then goes crazy as soon as he’s benched or dropped. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, he was WR75 in terms of PPG. Over the last 5 weeks, he was WR11. So who knows which guy you’re gonna get. His best bet is probably to stay in New York, where he’d remain one of the go-to options on a WR-depleted team, but who really knows with Anderson.
Breshad Perriman (TB)
Perriman finished the season red-hot and was showing the traits that once made him a first-round pick. He’s earned himself an opportunity at significant offensive snaps and could end up being a major bargain for whoever scoops him up.
Devin Funchess (IND)
Funchess played in just one game this past year, but he’s still just 25 years old, and averaged over 5 TD’s per/year through his first 4 seasons in the league. He still has some upside left if he lands in the right situation.
TE
Austin Hooper (ATL)
Hooper followed up his mini-breakout in 2018 with a legit breakout this past year. He is clearly a talented player, but there’s also no doubt that his upper-level production was heavily influenced by Atlanta leading the league in passing attempts. His fantasy value would take a hit if he were playing anywhere else. So would Matt Ryan’s. On the plus side, Hooper’s departure would funnel even more targets to Julio Jones & Calvin Ridley.
Hunter Henry (LAC)
This past year, Henry established himself as one of the premier fantasy assets at the position, but there are a lot of pieces swirling in LA which could affect his value moving forward, and that’s if he even returns to LA himself. He’d probably be better off on a team with stable quarterback play than with whatever the Chargers end up trotting out in 2020, but with the team already due to lose Rivers and Melvin Gordon, expect them to prioritize retaining Henry. If they aren’t able to retain Henry, it could help Mike Williams to finally realize his immense upside and become more than just a downfield/redzone threat.
Eric Ebron (IND)
Ebron revitalized his career in Indy, but he might be better off moving on at this point in his career. Splitting snaps with Jack Doyle has limited his upside, and he would benefit from going to a team that planned to feature him more as their top TE. It would also allow Doyle to step into a more consistent role as a fantasy contributor.
Delanie Walker (TEN) & Greg Olsen (CAR) (Cap Casualties)
Walker and Olsen don’t have much left to offer themselves. But, their departures are significant because they would allow Jonnu Smith and Ian Thomas to step into full-time starting roles. Smith and Thomas are both young & athletic and each would make for solid late-round fliers come next season.
OL
It’s rare to see high-level offensive lineman hit free agency considering how scarce they are. Most of the lineman who hit the open market are older players. Still, each team would benefit from keeping them in order to preserve stability along their lines. Replacements just aren’t readily available.
Andrew Whitworth (LAR), Jason Peters (PHI)
The Eagles are more prepared to move on from Peters (with 1st rounder Andre Dillard waiting in the wings) than the Rams are from Whitworth. LA had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last year and can hardly afford to lose one of their better blockers.
Jack Conklin (TEN), Daryl Williams (CAR)
Conklin and Williams are the rare above-average lineman to hit the market on the right side of 30. Look for each to get paid significantly and help improve whichever team’s line they choose to join.
Brandon Scherff (WAS), Jo Thuney (NE)
Scherff and Thuney are the only interior lineman with enough ability to actually move the needle. They’re going to get paid significantly and will give a boost to the running and passing game wherever they sign.
Anthony Castonzo (IND), Brian Bulaga (GB), Kelvin Beachum (NYJ)
These veterans are all past their peaks, but each can provide enough help to help shore up an offensive line for another season or two
DEF
Chris Jones (KAN)
Chris Jones is one of the few defensive game-wreckers due to hit the open market this season. He could single-handedly transform an average fantasy defense into a top-10 unit, or top-10 unit into an elite one. He might easily get $100 million.
JaDaveon Clowney (SEA)
Clowney’s probably the only other defensive player on the market who’s earned the title of “game-wrecker.” He hasn’t quite lived up to the hype as a pass-rusher, but he’s been near-elite as a run-stopper. He would absolutely improve the fantasy stock of any defense he joined.
Shaq Barrett (TAM), Yannick Ngakoue (JAX), Matt Judon (BAL), Dante Fowler Jr (LAR), Bud Dupree (PIT), Markus Golden (NYG)
This year’s free-agent class offers plenty of pass-rushing help. Barrett was this past year’s sack leader and is likely to be the most sought after of the bunch, but every one of these players is capable of boosting a team’s sack totals.
Cory Littleton (LAR)
Littleton doesn’t yet have name recognition, but he’s been one of the NFL’s best coverage linebackers so far in his short career. The Rams likely won’t be able to afford him, so look for him to upgrade the coverage unit wherever he signs.
Byron Jones (DAL), Anthony Harris (MIN), Chris Harris (DEN), Justin Simmons (DEN), Jimmy Smith (BAL), Logan Ryan (TEN)
Each of these cover-guys would provide significant help to any team’s secondary. Jones & Harris are in their primes and each is likely to come with a significant price tag. Denver’s defense would be hit especially hard if they lost both Harris & Simmons.
Devin McCourty, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton
Another defense which could be in major flux is New England’s, especially with the Patriots likely to spend some cash trying to improve the offensive side of the ball. McCourty, Van Noy, Collins, and Shelton are all likely going to have to take home-town discounts if they want to stick around.